FuturesCom Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook # 424 June 16 2013 SP500 and Equity Indices • Bonds • Currency Trading • Forex • Precious Metals • Energy • Grains • Livestock • Coffee • Sugar • Cocoa • Cotton. Free Two Week Trial see https://futurescom.com/free-trial-2
” The first rule is not to lose. The second rule is not to forget the first rule.” – Warren Buffet-
Saturday June 15, 2013 11:00 PM South Florida Beach Time
US Stocks closed lower on Friday with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing sloppy again. Additionally increased selling pressure was seen in the last hour of trading. Treasury futures closed the week higher with rates moving a bit lower. The meeting of the G-8 (Group of Eight leaders) next week likely will contain discussions regarding central bank and monetary policy. News Headlines of the G-8 meeting will likely be concerning the Syrian situation. Economic discussions will be broad and come just as investors have begun to ‘price in’ or as some say ‘fear’ that U.S Federal Reserve policy will change and the upcoming FOMC meeting next week will contain surprises or more news about winding down of Fed bond-purchase programs. The FOMC meeting begins on Tuesday and ends Wednesday with a statement of economic projections and then a press conference by Chairman of the Fed Ben Bernanke.
What investors should be afraid of is an economy that is too weak to wind QE down, that said aggressive traders should be prepared for tests of slightly lower levels and more volatility.
Index futures trading ranges appear to be established and the recent action may be nothing more than a mid-month dip in a bull market. Looking back to the # 420 publication of this newsletter (BW 420) I wrote that ‘all the money is made in the Stock market from November to May’ some things never change..
All major U.S stock averages are up on the year and year over year higher, the end of the quarter and end of month are ten trading days away and the long term yearly technical work is just turning bullish as previously mentioned in earlier issues of this newsletter. During bull periods the SP500 typically makes a low in late June against the April and March highs and rises into the end of the month and peaks into July and August and retests those levels during the October and November panic periods and ends the year on its highs. Stay tuned for flashes and trades from both sides of markets and be nimble.
The German DAX index closed Friday near the highs at the end of the last century and essentially the highs in 2007 and 2008 and is up on the year. Japans Nikkei index plunged during the last few weeks and has now entered what many call a bear market since it has fallen 25% off its recent highs.
Aggressive BOJ easing policy introduced in April has injected volatility into a broad range of investment markets. Japan’s plan was expected and debated well in advance. Events and news flow out of Japan were a disappointment for many traders who were looking for more action than talk from the BOJ and government of Japan. Traders piled in to a somewhat parabolic market and after they piled, did not get more and ran. Treasury futures closed Friday higher with rates moving a bit lower. Typically
US 30 Year bond futures stabilize into the last two weeks of June and firm into early July.
Crude Oil closed the week on a firm note. Even with plentiful supplies and increased US production the geopolitical issues coming to the forefront should provide support. The 1000 Iranian troops in Syria and Russian naval base on the coast make the efforts by the US and its partners to supply Syrian rebels with weapons quite a sticky situation. The term ‘proxy war’ is being tossed around by numerous sources. Sudden events can cause many things to come unglued. Thus Crude oil which is higher than year end levels can firm up a bit more for a variety of reasons especially into the early part of July.
Traders should stay tuned for Flashes in Energy for Day Trades and BW Trades
Looking at foreign exchange markets, traders should consider the Japanese Yen futures as a trading affair for the near term. Long term the USD/JPY remains bullish which is bearish for Yen Futures. However many are looking to short Dollar Yen which means traders are actually looking to buy the currency of a country where the government wants it’s FX rate lower. There may come a time when Japan may not be able to fund itself at the low rates it currently enjoys and has no other choice but to print money which is quite possible for a country that has 250% Debt to GDP ratio and a declining population. For now the Yen slide is a good thing for Japan and should allow Japan to accomplish many tasks hopefully before the country runs out of time and the whole thing implodes once again that said the Nikkei remains up on the year and is above the April lows despite the 25 % decline in price.
The US Dollar lost a lot of technical strength (along with stocks) last week. The Euro is still in the trading range it has been for a long time and remains a trading affair which is exactly what the ECB wants, stability. The Euro is a tad higher than it was on December 31. Dollar – Yen (USD/JPY) remains bullish long term with caution. The Swiss Franc moved higher versus the dollar in a blistering rally off the recent lows and ran up to nearly its year end price level. The Swiss National Bank meets this week with a statement due on June 20. Cable acts better and can trade up against the top of the recent range. Cable remains essentially at the same levels it has been for years and is likely to stay in this range. Aggressive traders can buy a sharp decline for a trade as well as selling excessive strength. No change to the Canadian Dollar posture, selling rallies is preferred for the long term. The Kiwi and Aussie Dollar stabilized and should be range-bound for a bit, however both are lower on the year and should considered trades rather than investments.
Gold and silver recovered a bit after selling off nothing has changed. Aggressive traders can probe for a trading low in silver on weakness into month end. Silver should act better than gold if the metals are going to firm a bit. Some metals such as Silver and Copper tend to act better in July than June, both are lower on the year and do not act well but can bounce. Silver and Copper analysis will roll to September next week.
The Change of seasons is next week and the Dog Days of Summer are right around the corner. Last week the USDA in its June crop update lowered its forecast for the corn yield by 1.5 bushels per acre to 156.5 and raised the expected marketing year average price by 10 cents per bushel. The middle of the USDA’s price guess for the upcoming marketing year is $4.80 for corn and $10.75 for soybeans. On June 28 the USDA will release its planted acreage for corn, soybeans and other crops for the United States. While farmers planted crops in May at one of the fastest paces on record , the government said weather has delayed sowings in the western Corn Belt, raising “the likelihood that seasonally warmer temperatures and drier conditions in late July will adversely affect” the crop during important stages of growth. Soybean seasonal highs are typically seen in late June to July and considering last year’s drought one can assume that another weather scare is ahead of the market not behind it. Therefore traders should stay nimble and watch the weather and upcoming reports. Corn can stabilize in region to obtain a trading level for Dec corn about 10 to 15 cents below the current levels with selling areas at or near the recent highs. Soybeans will be a day to day trading affair, front month Soybean are higher on the year however the bull spreads have narrowed a bit over the last month showing some weakness, Soymeal acts well and continues to hold up well. Sugar acted better late last week and tends to strengthen a bit into July. Cattle weakened a bit into mid June as expected, look for the weakness to abate a bit. Hogs posted sharp gains in the Front end on demand and improving exports especially to China. Hedgers and traders should stay tuned for daily flashes and updates regarding domestic agricultural markets.
With a plethora of Central Bank News and World leaders meeting this week traders should stay tuned for flashes and updates for all markets.
Onto the Nitty Gritty
THE SENSATIONAL STOCK AND BOND MARKET
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE
Support should appear near the 14,960.00 to 14,840.00 region. Below that buyers should appear near 14,715.00 and the 14,590.00 to 14.530.00 region.
Resistance should appear near 15,125.00 and the 15,290.00 to 15,350.00 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 15,520.00 and the 15,690.00 to 15,760.00 region.
SEPTEMEBER E-MINI SP500
Resistance should appear near 1628.50, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 1642.00 to 1655.00 and 1672.00. Beyond that sellers should appear near the 1689.00 to 1696.00 region.
Support should appear near 1615.00 to 1609.00 and the 1576.00 to 1569.00 region. Traders can buy at 1577.50 for a bounce and risk a close under 1568 for three days in a row. Aggressive Traders should go long if a close over 1629 occurs.
NASDAQ COMPOSITE
Resistance should appear near 3425.00 to 32443.00.a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 3493.00 to 3503.00 and the 3553.00 to 3583.00 region and should bring out sellers and cap a rally.
Support should appear near the 3388.00 to 3377.00 region. Below that a test of 3328.00 to 3319.00 is likely and should hold.
SEPTEMBER E-MINI NASDAQ 100
Support should appear near the 2937.00 to 2928.00 region. Below that buyers should appear near 2883.00 to 2874.00 and should contain a decline. Under that support should appear near 2829.00 to 2820.00
Resistance should appear near 2972.00 to 2990 and the 3036.00 to 3045.00 region. A close over is friendly and augurs for a test of the 3092.00 to 3102.00 and should cap a rally for a bit. Traders should go long if a close over 2992 occurs.
SEPTEMBER E-MINI RUSSELL 2000
Resistance should appear near 982.10 to 983.70, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of the 992.10 to 993.70 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 1002.10 to 1003.70 and cap a rally. Above that a trade to 1010.40 to 1013.60 is likely.
Support should appear near 973.70 to 970.60. Below that buyers should appear near 964.10 to 962.50 and the 954.20 to 952.60 region. Under that buyers should appear near 944.50 to 942.90 and the 934.70 to 931.60 region,. Traders who sleep on a bed of Nails can buy at 935.00 and hold for higher prices , Initially risk a close under 931.00 for three days in a row.
SEPT 30 YR BOND
Resistance should appear near 141-07 and 141-21. Beyond that a test of 142-07 and 142-21 is likely.
Support should appear near 139-21 and 138-07. Below that a trade towards 137-21 and 137-07 is likely and should bring out buyers
SEPT 10 YR NOTE
Resistance should appear near 130-07 and 131-21, beyond that sellers should appear near 132-07 and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 128-21 and 128-07. Below that a test of 127-07 and 126-21 is likely.
THE FRENZIED FOREX FRONT
SEPT DOLLAR INDEX
Resistance should appear near 8119 to 8134, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 8194 to 8213
Support should appear near 8044 to 8029 and the 7954 to 7939 region, which should contain a
decline.
SEPT JAPANESE YEN
Resistance should appear near 10680 and should continue to cap a rally. However a sustained level above is friendly and augurs for a test of 10815.
Support should appear near 10580 and 10470. A close under is negative and augurs for a test of the 10360 to 10320 region. Below that a test of 10237 is likely.
SEPT EURO CURRENCY
Support should appear near 13340, a close and sustained level under is negative and augurs for a test of 13100 to 13040 which should contain a decline.
Resistance should appear near 13400 to 13460 and cap a rally. Beyond that a test of 13530 and the 13770 to 13830 region is likely to occur.
.
SEPT SWISS FRANC
Resistance should appear near 10960 to 11010. Beyond that a test of the 11300 to 11360 region is likely.
Support should appear near 10750 and the 10680 to 10580 region, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 10470.
SEPT BRITISH POUND
Support should appear near 15690 and 15525, below that buyers should appear near and the 15350 to 15290 region.
Resistance should appear near 15760, beyond that a trade towards 16090 to 16150 is likely. Traders should go long if a close over 15767 occurs.
SEPT CANADIAN DOLLAR
Resistance should appear near 9821 to 9837 and the 9921 to 9937 region. Traders can sell at 9917 and risk a close over 9942 for three days in a row.
Support should appear near 9737 to 9706 and 9641 to 9625, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 9445 to 9429 and eventually the 9347 to 9316 region.
SEPTEMBER AUSSIE DOLLAR
Support should appear near 9445 to 9429, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of the 9347
to 9316 region. Traders can buy at 9351 and risk a close under 9315 for three days in a row.
Resistance should appear near 9625 to 9641 and the 9706 to 9737 region. Beyond that sellers should
appear near 9821 to 9837 and cap a rally. Traders can sell at 9817 and risk a close over 9841 for three days in a row.
Stay Tuned for additional Forex Flashes
THE PRECIOUS METALS
AUGUST GOLD
Resistance should appear near the 1415 to 1421 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 1453
to 1459.
Support is near 1383 to 1377, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 1346 to 1334, below that a test of 1322 and the 1310 to 1304 region likely… Under that buyers should appear near 1274.00 to 1268.00
JULY COPPER
Resistance should appear near 32130 and 32610 to 32700. Beyond that sellers should appear near 33770 to 33810 and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 31570 to 31480 and the 30450 to 30360 region. Below that a test of 29900 to 29720 is likely.
JULY SILVER
Resistance should appear near 2315 to 2322 and the 2354 to 2370 region. Beyond that sellers should
appear near 2411 to 2419 and the 2461 to 2489 region and cap a rally.
Support is at 2185 to 2170. Below that a test of 2134 to 2126 is likely. Failure there is negative and
augurs for a test of 2042 to 2034. Below that buyers should appear near 1996 to 1982 and contain a
decline..
THE EXCITING ENERGIES
AUGUST CRUDE OIL
Resistance should appear near 10021 to 10037, beyond that a test of 10104 to 10136 and the 10320 to 10360 region is likely. .
Support should appear near 9736 to 9706, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 9542 to 9526 below that buyers should appear near 9347 to 9316..
AUGUST HEATING OIL
Support should appear near 29370 to 29280 and the 28830 to 28740 region. Below that buyers should appear near 28290 to 28200.
Resistance should appear 30360 to 30450 and the 30920 to 31020 region.
AUGUST UNLEADED GAS
Support should appear near 28290 to 28200 and 27750 to 27580
Resistance should appear near 29280 to 29370 and 29720 to 29900
AUGUST NATURAL GAS
Resistance should appear at 3795 to 3806 and the 3858 to 3867 region, beyond that a test of 3909 to 3929 is likely while plentiful sellers should appear near 4046 to 4056 and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 3682 to 3663 and 3623 to 3613. Below that a test of 3563 to 3553 is likely and should contain a decline.
THE GRANDE’ GRAINS
AUGUST SOYBEANS
Support should appear near 1421 to 1415 and 1399. Below that buyers should appear near 1383 to 1377 and contain a decline.
Resistance should appear near 1453 to 1459, beyond that sellers should appear near the 1484 to 1496 region and the 1529 to 1535 region and cap a rally.
NOVEMBER SOYBEANS
Support should appear near 1274 to 1268 and 1238 to 1232. Below that buyers should appear near 1203 to 1192 and contain a decline.
Resistance should appear near 1304 to 1310 and the 1334 to 1346 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 1377 to 1383 and cap a rally.
AUGUST SOYOIL
Resistance should appear near 4915 to 4926. Beyond that sellers should appear near the 4973 to 4995 region and cap a rally.
Support should appear near the 4785 to 4775 region. Below that a test of 4717 to 4695 is likely.
AUGUST SOYMEAL
Resistance should appear near 430.4 to 431.6 and the 442.5 to 444.6 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 450.3 to 451.4 and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 418.3 to 416.3 and the 412.0 to 411.0 region. Below that buyers should appear near 404.6 to 405.6
SEPTEMBER CORN
Support should appear 557 ¾ to 555 ¼ and the 550 ½ to 549 ¾ region. Below that a test of 535 ¾ to 534 ½ is likely. .
Resistance should appear near 585 ½ to 588 and the 594 ½ to 595 ¾ region.
DECEMBER CORN
Support should appear 528 ¼ to 525 ½ and the 521 ¼ to 520 region.
Below that a test of 513 ¾ to 512 ¾ is likely and should hold.. Traders can buy at 514 and risk a close under 505 ¾ for three days in a row.
Resistance should appear near 534 ¾ to 535 ½ and 541 ¾ to 543 , beyond that sellers should appear near 555 ¼ to 557 ¾ and cap a rally.
SEPTEMBER WHEAT
Resistance should appear near 690 ¾ to 691 ¾ and the 699 to 700 ¾ region. Beyond that sellers
should appear near 714 ¾ to 717 and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 683 ¾ to 680 ¾ and the 675 ½ to 674 ¾ region. Below that buyers should appear near 667 ¼ to 665 ¾ and contain a decline.
THE LIVELY LIVESTOCK
AUGUST CATTLE
Support should appear near 11817 and the 11690 to 11640 region.
Resistance should appear near 11920 to 12030 and 12172.
OCTOBER CATTLE
Support should appear near 12172 and the 12030 to 11920 region.
Resistance should appear near 12320 to 12380 then 12447 and the 12680 to 12740 region
AUGUST HOGS
Support should appear near 9642 to 9622 and the 9542 to 9526 region.
Resistance should appear near 9707 to 9737, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 9822 to 9837 and eventually the 10021 to 10037 region.
Traders should go long if a close over 9742 occurs
OCTOBER HOGS
Support should appear near 8407 to 8392 and 8317 to 8300
Resistance should appear near 8482 to 8507. Beyond that a trade towards 8587 to 8590 and the 8667 to 8682 region is likely and should cap a rally. Traders can sell at 8662 and risk a close over 8690 for three days in a row.
Trade Accordingly
THE SATISFYING SOFTS
SEPTEMBER COFFEE
Support should appear near 12380 to 12320… Below that a test of 12030 to 11920 is likely
Resistance should appear near 13040 to 13100 and the 13340 to 13460 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 13770 to 13830.
SEPTEMBER COCOA
Resistance should appear near 2267 to 2275 and the 2315 to 2322 region
Support should appear near the 2185 to 2170, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 2134 to 2126 and the 2089 to 2080 region.
OCTOBER SUGAR
Resistance is near the 1731 to 1738 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 1774 to 1780 and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 1696 to 1689 then 1655 to 1642 and the 1615 to 1609 region.
DECEMBER COTTON
Support should appear near 8871 to 8856 and the 8683 to 8668. Below that buyers should appear near the 8407 to 8391 region
Resistance is 9029 to 9044 and the 9140 to 9156 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 9316 to 9347 and cap a rally.
Stay tuned for Flashes and Updates in all Markets
–A Ship in Harbor is Safe…But that is not what ships are built for –
Happy Trading!
Bill wil@futurescom.com
Sunday June 16, 2013
3:50 PM South Florida Beach Time
FuturesCom Investment Publications © 1996 – 2013 All Rights
THIS PUBLICATION IS SUBJECT TO REVISIONS AND CONTAINS THE VIEW AND OPINIONS OF THE AUTHOR, EXCEPT WHERE OPINIONS ARE ATTRIBUTED TO OTHER SOURCES. WRITTEN PERMISSION IS REQUIRED PRIOR TO ANY DISTRIBUTION OR REPRODUCTION. FUTURES AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING IS RISKY AND CAN CAUSE SUBSTANTIAL FINANCIAL LOSS. THE USE OF OPTIONS AND OPTION TRADING INVOLVES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK. THE USE OF STOPS MAY NOT LIMIT LOSSES TO INTENDED AMOUNTS. SPREAD POSITIONS MAY NOT BE LESS RISKY THAN OUTRIGHT FUTURES POSITIONS, FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND OPTIONS. TRADING FUTURES AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE ON MARGIN CARRIES A HIGH LEVEL OF RISK AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. PLEASE TRADE WITH CAPITAL YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. NO SOLICITATION IS MADE HERE FOR INDIVIDUALS TO BUY OR SELL FUTURES CONTRACTS, FOREIGN EXCHANGE OR OPTION MARKET. SOURCES ARE BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE BUT NO ASSURANCE IS MADE FOR ACCURACY. READERS ARE SOLEY RESPONSIBLE FOR HOW THEY USE THE INFORMATION AND FOR THEIR RESULTS. YOU SHOULD BE AWARE OF ALL THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH FUTURES AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND SEEK ADVICE FROM AN INDEPENDENT FINANCIAL ADVISOR IF YOU HAVE ANY DOUBTS, THE HIGH DEGREE OF LEVERAGE THAT IS OFTEN OBTAINABLE IN FUTURES AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING CAN WORK AGAINST YOU AS WELL AS FOR YOU. THE USE OF LEVERAGE CAN LEAD TO LARGE LOSSES AS WELL AS GAINS. INTERNET RISKS ; THERE ARE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH UTILIZING AN INTERNET BASED SERVICE INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, FAILURE OF HARDWARE, SOFTWARE AND INTERNET CONNECTION, FUTURESCOM EMPLOYS BACK-UP SYSTEMS AND CONTINGENCY PLANS TO MINIMIZE THE POSSIBILITY OF SYSTEM FAILURE
FuturesCom Investment Publications Terms of Use and Agreement https://www.futurescom.com/policies.html
Sorry, the comment form is closed at this time.