FuturesCom Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook # 443 March 09 2014 SP500 and Equity Indices • Bonds • Currency Trading • Forex • Precious Metals • Energy • Grains • Livestock • Coffee • Sugar • Cocoa • Cotton. Free Two Week Trial see https://futurescom.com/free-trial-2
Observation, Experience, Memory and Mathematics. These are what a successful trader must depend on. A man can have great mathematical ability and unusual power of accurate observation and yet fail in speculation unless he also possesses the experience and memory…-Reminiscences of a Stock operator-
Sunday March 09, 2014
4:00 AM, South Florida Beach Time.
Traders should stay nimble and tune for BW flashes, Updates and Day Trades for all markets. An economic calendar is attached to today’s letter. Major U.S stock averages remain mixed on the year. The NASDAQ, SP500 and Russell 2000 are higher on the year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is slightly lower on the year by a hair. The Transports hit new record highs last week. The SP500 typically can firm past the first week of March and beyond into April. Buying the June SP500 after the first week of March typically shows profits into early April. Traders should continue to use weakness (if it occurs) to nibble at the long side of June Mini SP500.
The Dollar-Yen rose a bit last week. We remain long postured dollar yen and remain short postured Yen futures. Long term Dollar-Yen remains friendly. The Euro breached its upper edge of resistance. Maintaining a posture over 13830 indicates an eventual test of 14150. Pushing beyond that should prompt the ‘powers that be’ in the Eurozone to worry about deflationary effects from the higher euro. Any sustained price action this week below 13830 and 13770 indicates lower prices. Stay tuned for Forex and Short Term Flashes for Euro trades. Cable is range bound and remains in a tight range while up on the year. Long term Cable remains friendly. The Canadian Dollar dropped a bit on Friday after worse than expected data came out from Canada. Look for more range bound trading. Long term work on the Aussie and Canadian dollar remain bearish. If the U.S Dollar firms over 8044 then a test of 8194 is likely. However, the Dollar is stuck in a sideways trading range and now has probed the downside support at 7954 to 7929.
Silver and gold closed weaker Friday. Copper fell hard now and sits at the lower edge of the trading range over the last six months, we will see if it holds or not. Silver and Gold, tend to act a bit sloppy testing the low end of the last month is not out the question. U.S 30 Year Bond Futures closed lower last week on the better than expected unemployment data and some relief from safe haven status.
The U.S economy is likely to do far better than most think and that’s not a reason to get long bond futures for any length of time. Traders should use weakness to buy Crude which typically can firm well into May and beyond. Agricultural Markets are going thru a variety of weather concerns along with disease and other factors including improving global growth.
Stay tuned for BW flashes and additional analysis for all markets.
Onto the nitty-gritty.
THE SENSATIONAL STOCK AND BOND MARKET
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE
Support should appear 16,420.00 and 16,150 to 16090.00. Below that buyers should appear near 15,760.00 to 15,690.00 and contain declines.
Resistance is at 16,550.00, an extended trade over is friendly and augurs for a test of the
16,890.00 to 16,960.00 region.
JUNE E-MINI SP500
Resistance should appear near the 1902.00 to 1909.00 region. Beyond that a test of 1946.00 to 1953.00 is likely.
Support should appear near 1865.00 1858.00 and the 1822.00 to 1808.00 region.
Traders should go long if a close 1884.00 occurs.
NASDAQ COMPOSITE
Resistance should appear near 4370.00 to 4381.00, beyond that a test of 4425.00 to 4446.00 is likely.
Above that sellers should appear near 4503.00 to 4514.00
Support should appear near 4315.00 to 4304.00 and the 4249.00 to 4238.00 region. Below that support should appear near the 4183.00 to 4163.00 region and contain a decline.
JUNE E-MINI NASDAQ 100
Support should appear near 3682.00 to 3663.00 and the 3623.00 to 3613.00 region.
Resistance is at 3734.00 to 3743.00 beyond that a test of 3795.00 to 3806.00 and the 3858.00 to 3867.00 is likely
JUNE E-MINI RUSSELL 2000
Resistance should appear near the 1232.00 to 1238.00 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near
1268.00 to 1274.00.
Support should appear near 1203.00 to 1192.00 and the 1169.00 to 1164.00 region.
Stay tuned for Flashes and trade accordingly
JUNE 30 YR BONDS
Resistance should appear near 131-21 and 132-07. Beyond that sellers should appear near 132-21 and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 130-21. Below that buyers should appear near 129-21 and 128-21.
JUNE 10 YR NOTE
Resistance should appear near 124-21 and 125-07. Above that resistance is at 125-21 and 126-07 where sellers should appear and cap rallies.
Support should appear near 123-07 and 122-21, below that a test of 122-07 and 121-21 is likely and should hold for now.
THE FRENZIED FOREX FRONT
JUNE DOLLAR INDEX
Resistance should appear near 8029 to 8044 A sustained trade or close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 8119 to 8134.
Support should appear near the 7954 to 7939 region, below that a test of 7864 to 7836 is likely and should bring out buyers. Traders can buy at 7867 and risk close under 7834 for three days in a row.
JUNE JAPANESE YEN
Resistance should appear near 9706 to 9736 and 9821 to 9837
Support should appear near 9542 to 9526 and 9445 to 9429… Below that a test of 9347 to 9316 is likely.
JUNE EURO CURRENCY
Support should appear near 13830 to13770 and the 13460 to 13340 region.
Resistance should appear near 13990 is likely, beyond that a test of 14150 to 14210 is likely
Traders can sell at 14140 and risk a close over 14217 for three days in a row.
JUNE SWISS FRANC
Resistance should appear near 11500, beyond that a test of 11640 to 11690 is likely
Support is near 11360 to 11300 and the 11010 to 10960 region.
MARCH BRITISH POUND
Support should appear near the 16550 to 16420 region. Traders can buy at 16557 for a bounce and risk a close under 16417 for three days in a row.
Resistance remains near 16890 to 16960, beyond that a test of 17310 to 17380 is likely.
JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
Resistance should appear near 9040 to 9060 and the 9140 to 9156 region.
Support should appear near 8964 to 8934, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 8871 to 8856
JUNE AUSSIE DOLLAR
Support should appear near 8871 to 8856 and 8777 to 8762.
Resistance should appear near 9044 to 9060 and 9140 to 9156.
Pick Your Poison…
THE PRECIOUS METALS
APRIL GOLD
Resistance should appear near 1346.0. Beyond that sellers should appear near 1377.0 to 1383.0.
Support remains neear1310.0 to 1304.0, below that buyers should appear near 1289.0 and the 1274.0 to 1268.0 region.
MAY COPPER
Resistance should appear near 30920 to 31020 and 31940 to 32130
Support should appear near 3045 to 3036 and 29900 to 29720
MAY SILVER
Support should appear near the 2042 to 2034 below that a test of 1996 to 1982 is likely.
Resistance is at 2126 to 2134 and the 2170 to 2185 region.
THE EXCITING ENERGIES
MAY CRUDE OIL
Resistance should appear near the 10320 to 10360, a close over is friendly and augurs for an eventual test of 10580 to 10680.
Support should appear near 10136 to 10101 and 9937 to 9921. Below that buyers should appear near 9837 to 9821. Traders can buy at 10137 for a bounce and hold for higher prices.
MAY BRENT CRUDE OIL
Resistance should appear near 10960 to 11010. Beyond that a test of the 11300 to 11360 region is likely.
Support should appear near 10820 and the 10680 to 10580 region
APRIL HEATING OIL
Support should appear near should appear near 29999 to 29720 and 29370 to 29280 region
Resistance should appear the 30920 to 31020, beyond that a test of 31480 to 31570 is likely.
APRIL UNLEADED GAS
Support should appear 29720 and 29370 to 29280 and 28830 to 28740
Resistance should appear near 30360 to 30450 and the 30920 to 31020 region.
MAY NATURAL GAS
Resistance should appear at 4639 to 4650 and the 4785 to 4775 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 4845 to 4856
Support should appear near 4446 to 4425 then 4381 to 4370 and the 4183 to 4163 region.
THE GRANDE’ GRAINS
MAY SOYBEANS
Support should appear near 1421 to 1415 and the 1383 to 1377 region.
Resistance should appear near 1484 to 1496, beyond that a test of 1529 to 1535 is likely
JULY SOYBEANS
Support should appear near 1421 to 1415, below that a test of 1383 to 1377 is likely.. Under that buyers should appear near 1346 to 1334 and should contain a decline.
Resistance should appear near 1453 to 1459, beyond that a test of 1484 to 1496 is likely
MAY SOYOIL
Resistance should appear near 4503 to 4514, beyond that a test of 4639 to 4650 is likely
Support should appear near 4315 to 4304, below that a test of 4249 to 4238 is likely and should bring out buyers..
MAY SOYMEAL
Resistance should appear near 463.9 to 465.0, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of
484.5 to 485.6, beyond that sellers should appear near 505.6 to 506.7.
Support should appear near 444.6 to 442.5 and 438.1 to 437.0, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 431.5 to 430.4 and the 424.9 to 423.8 region, which should hold.
MAY CORN
Support should appear near 451 ½ to 450 ¼ and 444 ¾ to 442 ½ which should hold.
Resistance should appear near 512 ¾ to 513 ¾ and the 541 ¾ to 544 region
MAY WHEAT
Resistance should appear near 665 ¾ to 667 ¼ and 680 ¾ to 683 ¾
Support should appear 635 to 633 ¾ and 595 ¾ to 594 ½.
THE LIVELY LIVESTOCK
APRIL CATTLE
Support remains near 14210 to 141250 and 13830 to 13770. Below that buyers should appear near 13460 to 13340.
Resistance should appear near 14530 to 14590 and 14840 to 14960
JUNE CATTLE
Support should appear near 13460 to 13340 and 12740 to 12680.
Resistance should appear near 13770 to 13830 and 14150 to 14210
APRIL HOGS
Support should appear near 11010 to 10960 and 10680 to 10580
Resistance should appear near 11640 to 16690 and 11920 to 12030
JUNE HOGS
Support should appear near 12030 to 11920 and 11690 to 11640
Resistance should appear near 12320 to 12380 and the 12680 to 12740 region.
Stay tuned for Livestock flashes.
THE SATISFYING SOFTS
MAY COFFEE
Resistance should appear near 22190 to 22260 and 23540 to 23700 region. Beyond that a test of
26120 to 26200 is likely and should cap a rally.
Support should appear near 19530 to 19450 and 17900 to 17740 region. Below that buyers should appear near 16420 to 16550 and contain a decline.
MAY COCOA
Resistance should appear near 3036 to 3045, beyond that a test of 3092 to 3102 is likely.
Support should appear near 2937 to 2928 and the 2883 to 2874 region. Where buyers should appear and contain a decline. Traders can buy at 2887 and hold for higher prices.
MAY SUGAR
Resistance is near 1858 to 1865 and 1902 to 1909
Support should appear near 1738 to 1731 and 1696 to 1689, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 1655 to 1642.
MAY COTTON
Support should appear near 9060 to 9044 and 8964 to 8934. Below that buyers should appear near 8871 to 8856. Traders can buy at 8965 for a bounce and hold for higher prices.
Resistance is at 9316 to 9347, beyond that a test of 9429 to 9445 and the 9706 to 9737 region is likely
Stay tuned for Flashes and Updates in all Markets
–A Ship in Harbor is Safe…But that is not what ships are built for –
Happy Trading!
Bill wil@futurescom.com
Sunday March 09, 2014 2:45 PM South Florida Beach Time
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