FuturesCom Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook # 416 February 24 2013 SP500 and Equity Indices • Bonds • Currency Trading • Forex • Precious Metals • Energy • Grains • Livestock • Coffee • Sugar • Cocoa • Cotton. Free Two Week Trial see https://futurescom.com/free-trial-2
“A lot of people approach risk as if it’s the enemy, when it’s really fortunes accomplice.”
Saturday February 23, 2013
10:00 PM South Florida Beach Time
There are only a few trading days left in the Month. Equity Markets are higher on the year, gold is lower on the year and the dollar is higher. Traders should stay tuned for Flashes along with Updates in all markets as investors and traders prepare for the month- end trading and the onset of March madness.
US Stocks closed better on Friday, traders should look for a more news-driven and range-bound SP500 as we enter March. Over the next week maybe two, aggressive traders can play both sides and then look for a rise into middle to late March. Look to buy a dip in the indices for a rise into mid to late March Sell a rally in June Bonds for a trade lower into March and April.
Our analysis in currency futures will roll to the June contracts in early March, therefore both Futures and Spot FX traders should stay tuned for flashes. Aussie acts lousy, rallies should be sold .Yen remains long term bearish, but it can firm up bit. Sell a Sharp Rally in futures and Buy Dollar /Yen on a dip, avoid paying up on Dollar/Yen but remain long term long. Late Friday the UK credit rating was cut and Cable sold off sharply near the 5 PM NY close. Traders should look to Sell a rally in cable if one occurs, the next two weeks should be weak. Canuck fell harder than expected, look for a rebound into early March if it holds and sell a rally. Look to Sell a rally in Swiss the higher the better, sell June Swiss in Mid-March and look for a dip into April. Look for a range bound Euro, sell rallies against 13340 to 13460, while 13100 to 13040 can hold. Stay tuned for Forex Flashes.
The sell-off in Precious metals will make the headlines and Gold is lower on the year, so is Silver
how long the weak tone will last is something only the market knows as the long term averages are negative and can last that way for a while. Nearby Silver weakness can last into Mid-March. Gold during Bull periods is typically not under the January lows and it is. There look for a range bound trade with chances for both longs and shorts. Stay tuned for flashes. Investors need to consider the whole precious metal investment theme that began at the end of the last century can come unglued and a protracted sideways trading range with a downward slant can last for a long time. Copper typically firms into early March short term traders can look for a bounce into early March if the selling becomes more extreme.
Energies are also weak, however a rally into April should not be ruled out. Additionally February lows in Brent Crude can typically hold going into March and April. Traders should buy this dip in unleaded gas for a trade and look for geo-political disruptions to come to the forefront.
Soybeans and products rallied hard and then sold off badly. Buy Beans and the Bean Oil and Meal on extreme weakness for a trade. Avoid lengthy selling into the decline as Soy and its products typically firm into March and early April. For now expect a two way Market and Buy the dip to get back long.
Stay tuned for additional Flashes and updates for All Markets. On to the Nitty Gritty…
THE SENSATIONAL STOCK AND BOND MARKET
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE
Support remains near 13,990.00 and the 3,830.00 to 13,770.00 region. Below that 13,460.00 to 13,340.00 should hold.
Resistance should appear near the 14,150.00 to 14,210.00 region which should cap an early rally.
A close over is friendly and augurs for a test of the 14,380.00
MARCH E-MINI SP500
Resistance should appear the 1529.00 to 1535.00 region. Beyond that a test of 1552.00 is likely. Trade accordingly.
Support should appear near 1496.00 to 1484.00 and should hold for a trade. Below that, buyers should appear near 1471.50 and the 1459.00 to 1453.00 region and contain a decline. Traders can buy at 1461.50 and risk a close under 1451.50 for three days in a row.
NASDAQ COMPOSITE
Resistance should appear near 3194.00 to 3213.00 where sellers should appear and cap a rally.
A close over is friendly and augurs for a test of the 3261.00 to 3270.00 region.
Support should appear near 3157.00 to 3148.00 and the 3102.00 to 3092.00 region. Below that buyers should appear near 3045.00 to 3036.00 and contain a decline.
MARCH E-MINI NASDAQ 100
Support should appear near the 2724.00 to 2716.00 region. Below that 2672.00 to 2663.00 should hold.
Resistance should appear near 2758.00 to 2756.00 and the 2820.00 to 2829.00 region.
MARCH E-MINI RUSSELL 2000
Resistance should appear near 915.60 and 923.70.Beyond that sellers should appear near the 931.60 to 934.70 region. A close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 942.90 to 944.50
Support should appear near 910.00 and 906.00 to 904.40. Below that buyers should appear near 896.40 to 893.40 and the 887.10 to 885.60 region. Traders can buy at 887.90 and risk 5 points.
JUNE 30 YR BOND
Resistance should appear near 142-21 then 143-07 and 143-21. Beyond that sellers should appear near 144-07 and 144-21, which should cap a rally. Traders can sell at 144-17 and risk a close over 144-23 for three days in a row.
Support should appear near 141-21 then 141-07 and 140-21. Under that buyers should appear near
139-21 and contain a decline.
JUNE 10 YR NOTE
Resistance should appear near 131-07 and 131-21, beyond that 132-21 should cap a rally.
Support should appear near 130-07 below support should appear near 129-21 and 129-07 which should hold for now.
THE FRENZIED FOREX FRONT
MARCH DOLLAR INDEX
Resistance should appear near 8194 to 8223, a close over augurs for a test of the 8300 to 8314 region.
Support should appear near 8134 to 9119 and should hold for now, below that buyers should appear near the 8044 to 8029 region.
MARCH JAPANESE YEN
Resistance should appear near 10820 and the 10960 to 11010 region.
Support should appear near 10680 to 10580 region, below that a test of 10470 and the 10360 to 10320 region is likely.
MARCH EURO CURRENCY
Support should appear near 13100 to 13040 and 12890.
Resistance should appear near 13340 to 13460 and 13517.
MARCH SWISS FRANC
Resistance should appear near 10820 and 10960 to 11010.
Support should appear near the 10680 to 10580 region.
MARCH BRITISH POUND
Support should appear near 14960 to 14840 and the 14590 to 14530 region.
Resistance should appear near 15290 to 15350 and 15525. Traders can sell at 15270 and hold for lower prices.
MARCH CANADIAN DOLLAR
Resistance should appear near the 9821 to 9837 and 9921 to 9937 which should cap a rally.
Support should appear near 9737 to 9706, below that a test of 9641 to 9625 is likely.
MARCH AUSSIE DOLLAR
Resistance should appear near 10320 to 10360. Traders can sell at 10317 and risk a close over 10367 for three days in a row.
Support should appear near 10185 and the 10136 to 10104 region. Below that a test of 10037 to 10021 is likely.
THE PRECIOUS METALS
APRIL GOLD
Resistance should appear near 1576 and 1592. Beyond that sellers should appear near 1609 to 1615 and the 1642 to 1655 region which should cap a rally.
Support is near 1552 and 1535 to 1529. Below that a test of 1496 to 1485 is likely.
MAY COPPER
Resistance should appear near 36130 to 36230 and 36630 to 36820.
Support should appear near 35030 to 34930 and the 34430 to 34250 region.
Traders can buy at 34450 for a bounce and hold for higher prices.
MAY SILVER
Resistance should appear near 2874 to 2883 and 2928 to 2937.
Support is at 2829 to 2820 and 2775 to 2758, under that a trade towards 2724 to 2716 is likely to occur.
THE EXCITING ENERGIES
APRIL CRUDE OIL
Support should appear near 9156 to 9140 and the 9060 to 9044 region.
Resistance should appear near 9426 to 9445 and the 9526 to 9542 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 9625 to 9631. A close over is friendly and augurs for a test of the 9706 to 9737 region.
APRIL HEATING OIL
Support should appear near 30920 and 30450 to 30360 and the 29900 to 29720 region.
Resistance should appear near 31480 to 31570 and 31940 to 32130, beyond that a test of 32610 to 32700 is likely.
APRIL UNLEADED GAS
Support should appear near the 32130 to 31940 region. Below that buyers should appear near 31570 to 31450 and the 31020 to 30920 region. Traders can buy at 31600 for a bounce and risk a close under 31425 for three days in a row.
Resistance should appear 33190 to 33280, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of the 33770 to 33860 region.
APRIL NATURAL GAS
Resistance should appear at 3377 to 3386 and 3425 to 3443, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of the 34930 to 35030 region… Beyond that sellers should appear near 35530 to 35630 and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 3270 to 3261 and 3213 to 3194. Below that buyers should appear near the 3157 to 3148 region and contain a decline.
THE GRANDE’ GRAINS
MAY SOYBEANS
Support should appear near 1421 to 1415 and the 1383 to 1374 region.
Traders can buy at 1387 for a bounce and risk a close under 1373 for three days in a row.
Resistance should appear near 1453 to 1459, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of the 1484 to 1496 region.
MAY SOYOIL
Resistance should appear near 5127 to 5139 and the 5200 to 5211 region.
Support should appear near 5067 to 5056 and the 4995 to 4973, below that buyers should appear near the 4926 to 4915 region. Traders can buy at 4930 and risk a close under 4907 for three days in a row.
MAY SOYMEAL
Resistance should appear near 437.0 to 438.1 and 442.5 to 444.6 region
Support should appear near 418.3 to 416.3 and 412.0 to 411.0 region. Below that buyers should appear near 399.2 to 398.2.
MAY CORN
Support should appear 683 ¾ to 680 ¾ and the 675 ½ to 674 ¾ region… Below that buyers should appear near 667 ¼ to 665 ¾ and contain a decline.
Resistance should appear near 699 to 700 ¼ and 707 ½ to 708 ¾.
MAY WHEAT
Resistance should appear near 732 ¾ to 734 ¼ and the 741 ½ to 742 ¾ region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 758 ¾ to 760 ¾
Support should appear near 717 to 714 ¾ and the 708 ¾ to 707 ½ region. Below that 700 ¾ to 699 should contain a decline…
Trade Accordingly and Stay Tuned for Grain Flashes
THE LIVELY LIVESTOCK
APRIL CATTLE
Support should appear near 12740 to 12680 and the 12360 to 12320 region
Resistance should appear 13040 to 13100, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 13237 and the 13340 to 13460 region.
JUNE CATTLE
Support should appear near the 12380 to 12320 region.
Resistance should appear near 12680 to 12740.
APRIL HOGS
Support should appear near 8047 to 8027 and the 7957 to 7937 region
Resistance should appear near 8300 to 8317 and the 8392 to 8407 region
JUNE HOGS
Support should appear near 8967 to 8932 and the 8872 to 8857 region
Resistance should appear near 9137 to 9157 and the 9317 to 9347 region.
Stay tuned for
Stay Tuned for Flashes and updates in Livestock.
THE SATISFYING SOFTS
MAY COFFEE
Support should appear near 14210 to 14150 and 13830 to 13770.
Resistance should appear near 14530 to 14590 and the 14840 to 14960 region, which should cap a rally.
MAY COCOA
Resistance should appear near 2170 to 2185 and 2219 to 2226.Beyond that a test of 2267 to 2275 and the 2315 to 2322 region is likely.
Support should appear near 2134 to 2126 and 2089 to 2080 which should contain a decline.
Trade Accordingly
MAY SUGAR
Resistance is near 1858 to 1865 and the 1902 to 1909 region.
Support should appear near 1807 and 1780 to 1774
MAY COTTON
Support should appear near 8300 and the 8223 to 8194 region. Below that buyers should appear near 8134 to 8119 and the 8044 to 8029 region.
Resistance is near 8391 to 8407 a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 8484 to 8499 and eventually the 8668 to 8683 region.
Stay Tuned for Flashes
Stay tuned for Flashes and Updates in all Markets
–A Ship in Harbor is Safe…But that is not what ships are built for –
Happy Trading!
Bill wil@futurescom.com
Sunday February 24, 2013
3:50 PM South Florida Beach Time
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FuturesCom Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook # 416 Sunday February 24, 2013 Equity Indices – Treasuries – Currency Trading – Forex – Precious Metals – Energy – Grains – Livestock – Softs Comments
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