FuturesCom Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook # 436 December 01 2013 SP500 and Equity Indices • Bonds • Currency Trading • Forex • Precious Metals • Energy • Grains • Livestock • Coffee • Sugar • Cocoa • Cotton. Free Two Week Trial see https://futurescom.com/free-trial-2
If you want to know what’s happening in the market, ask the market.
Saturday November 30, 2013
4:00 AM South Florida Beach Time
Traders should stay nimble and tune in for Day Trades, BW flashes and Updates for all markets. Our Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S is behind us and some scheduled ‘down’ time in the office is now over. Traders should be receiving more day trades and a pick-up in activity. Stocks closed mixed on Friday. All major U.S stock averages are up on the year, year over year and closed higher on the month. The Dow Jones Industrials trend remains on a sideways to higher path. Both the Dow Jones Industrial average and SP500 tend remain firm into December and generally into the end of the year. Traders should consider buying ETF’s or Futures on dips. Long term ‘yearly’ technical patterns for U.S. stock index averages remain friendly. The week ahead is filled with economic data and a plethora of comments (An economic calendar is being sent with today’s letter). The Euro is still in the same trading range is slightly higher on the year and remains a trading affair. FuturesCom is rolling analysis to March for currencies and to February for WTI Crude Oil in this issue. Equity Index analysis will roll to March at the end of the week. Traders should look for a continued upward bias in Dollar –Yen. Forex traders should remain long Dollar-Yen and buy dips. Cable acts better, long term charts have turned friendly. The December British Pound made new contract highs last week with marginally higher prices likely ahead of the market rather than behind, buy a dip. The Aussie continues to act weak against the Dollar, however the Aussie does tend to firm against the dollar into a bit into December. Buying Aussie Dollars against Canadian Dollars and the US Dollar tends to work during December and into the first week in January. However the Aussie remains well off its highs of the year and traders should look for a more range bound trade and consider the Aussie a trading affair. The U.S Dollar can typically hold up well against the Canadian dollar into early December. Positive data from north of the border on Friday initially helped the Canuck but the rally was brief and it closed lower on the day, December Canadian Dollar futures are 30 points or so away from contract lows. The long term work remains friendly for USD/CAD. With a heavy data week ahead traders should look for trading ranges.
Analysis for overseas equity and foreign exchange markets is available upon request. For more information please call or email a request.
January WTI Crude made new recent lows on Thursday and bounced a bit as the spread between Brent Crude Oil and WTI narrowed. Typically WTI Crude makes sustainable lows for a trade in the middle to late December. Lasting lows in WTI usually occur after the year–end passes into February. Gold bounced a bit on Friday, did not close the month on its lows and was higher on the day. Look for a range bound trade. Chinese demand for the metal is increasing and should stem some selling as demand increases in front of the Chinese New Year, which comes in January. If one tosses in some reticent buying in case geo-political tensions rise in Asia then gold should test 1274 to 1289. Copper closed a bit higher and silver also acted better on Friday. We will see if the metals can sustain the strength. Soybeans closed firm Friday on good exports, wheat rallied a bit and corn declined.
The lifting of some Iranian sanctions should boost some demand for foodstuffs and is generally supportive for Wheat and Sugar. Traders can buy this break in sugar and look for a pickup in prices over the next few weeks. Coffee closed up on the month and typically acts better into the end of the year, buy dips for trading. Buy a dip in Cocoa for a higher trade into the end of the year. Cash Cattle firmed up and pulled up the futures contracts. Seasonally Feb Cattle tends to lose a bit its steam into the first two weeks of December. Hogs were mixed on Friday, cash remains weak the back end contracts remain firm, Traders can sell Feb and April Hogs for a trade and also look to buy a dip in June and establish long June and July against short Feb and April Hogs.
Stay tuned for Livestock Flashes.
THE SENSATIONAL STOCK AND BOND MARKET
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE
Support should appear near 15,925.00 and the 15,760.00 to 15,690.00 region where buyers should contain declines.
Resistance remains near the16, 090.00 to16, 150.00, a close or extended trade over is friendly and augurs for an eventual test of 16,420.00 to 16,550.00 which now appears more likely than not to occur.
DEC E-MINI SP500
Resistance should appear near the 1808.00 to 1822.00 region. A close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 1840.00 and eventually the 1858.00 to 1865.00 region.
Nearby support should appear near 1801.00 and 1794.00. Below that buyers should appear near the 1780.00 to 1774.00 region.
Aggressive Traders should go long March if a close over 1801.25 occurs.
NASDAQ COMPOSITE
Resistance remains appear near the 4046.00 to 4056.00 region. Beyond that a test of 4110.00 to 4120.00 and 4183.00 to 4193.00 is likely.
Support should appear near 3992 to 3982 and 3955.00. Below that buyers should appear near the 3939.00 to 3909.00 region and contain declines.
DEC E-MINI NASDAQ 100
Support should appear near 3443.00 to 3425.00. Below that buyers should appear near the 3386.00 to 3377.00 region.
Resistance is at 3493.00 to 3503.00, beyond that a test of 3553.00 to 3563.00 and the 3613.00 to 3623.00 region is likely. Traders should go long March if a close over 3503.25 occurs.
DEC E-MINI RUSSELL 2000
Resistance should appear at 1150.00, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of the 1164.00 to 1169.00 region. Support should appear near 1136.00 to 1130.00 and 1115.50.
Stay tuned for Index Flashes.
MARCH 30 YR BOND
Resistance should appear near 130-21 and 131-07, above that a test of 132-07 is likely. Beyond that sellers should appear near 133-21 and 134-21 should cap rallies.
Support should appear near 130-07 and 129-21, under that buyers should appear near 129-07 and 128-21.
MARCH 10 YR NOTE
Resistance should appear near 125-21, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 126-21. Beyond that sellers should appear near 128-07 and should cap a rally.
Support should appear near 125-07, below that a test of 124-21 is likely. Failure to hold indicates a test of 123-21 which should contain a decline.
THE FRENZIED FOREX FRONT
MARCH DOLLAR INDEX
Resistance should appear near 8119 to 8134 and the 8194 to 8823 region.
Support should appear near 8044 to 8029, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 7954 to 7939.
MARCH JAPANESE YEN
Resistance should appear near 9821 to 9837 and 9921 to 9937. Traders can sell at 9877 and hold for lower prices and stay tuned for a stop.
Support should appear near 9737 to 9706, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 9641 to 9625. Aggressive Traders should go short if a close under 9703 occurs.
MARCH EURO CURRENCY
Support should appear near 13460 to 13400 and 13340 and contain declines.
Resistance should appear near 13615 and should cap an early rally. Beyond that resistance should appear near the 13770 to 13830 region.
MARCH SWISS FRANC
Resistance should appear near 10087 and 11155, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 11300 to 11360 where sellers should cap a rally.
Support is near 11010 to 10960, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 10820 which should hold. Trade Accordingly…
MARCH BRITISH POUND
Support should appear near 16287, traders can buy at 16289 and hold for higher prices. Below that buyers should appear near 16222 and the 16150 to 16090 which should contain declines.
Nearby resistance should appear near 16420 to 16550. Beyond that a test of 16720 is likely
MARCH CANADIAN DOLLAR
Resistance should appear near 9438 to 9445.A close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 9478 beyond that sellers should appear near 9529 to 9542 and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 9347 to 9316 and should contain declines in the short term an extended trade under is negative and augurs for a test of 9235 and eventually the 9156 to 9140 region.
MARCH AUSSIE DOLLAR
Support should appear near 8964 to 8934, and should hold for now. A close under is negative and augurs for a test of 8871 to 8856.
Resistance should appear near 9044 to 9060 then 9100 and 9140 to 9156. Above that sellers should appear near 9237 and cap a rally.
Trade Accordingly….
THE PRECIOUS METALS
FEBRUARYGOLD
Nearby resistance should appear near 1253.00, beyond that a test of 1268.0 to 1274.0 is likely. Above that sellers should appear near 1289.0 and 1304.0 to 1310.0
Support remains near 1238.0 to 1232.0, a close or extended trade under is negative and augurs for a test of the 1203.00 to 1192.00 region.
Pick Your Poison.
MARCH COPPER
Resistance should appear near 323.70, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 32610 to 32700 and the 33190 to 33280 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 33770 to 33860.
Support should appear near 319.70, a sustained close under is negative and augurs for a test of the 31570 to 31480 region which should contain declines. Below that a test of 31020 to 30920 is likely.
MARCH SILVER
Support should appear near 1996 to 1982 and the 1953 to 1946 region.
Resistance is at 2034 to 2042 and 2080 to 2089. Beyond that sellers should appear near 2126 to 2134.
THE EXCITING ENERGIES
FEBRUARY CRUDE OIL
Resistance should appear near 9316 to 9347 and the 9429 to 9445 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 9625 to 9641and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 9156 to 9140, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 9060 to 9044 and the 8964 to 8934 region.
Trade Accordingly…
JANUARY HEATING OIL
Support should appear near should appear near 29900 to 29720, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 29370 to 29280 and the 28830 to 28740 region.
Resistance should appear 30360 to 30450 then 30685 and the 30920 to 31020 region.
JANUARY UNLEADED GAS
Support should appear near the 26200 to 26120 then 25680 to 25620 and the 25190 to 25110 region
Resistance should appear near 26720, beyond that sellers should appear near 27160 to 27240 and the
27580 to 27750 region.
JANUARY NATURAL GAS
Resistance should appear at 3982 to 3992, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of the 4046 to 4056 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 4163 to 4183 and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 3929 to 3909 and the 3867 to 3858 region. A close under is negative and indicates a test of 3806 to 3795. Below that buyers should appear near 3682 to 3663 and contain declines.
THE GRANDE’ GRAINS
JAN SOYBEANS
Support should appear near 1322, a slip under is negative and augurs for a test of the 1310 to 1304 region. Below that buyers should appear near 1289 and the 1274 to 1268 region.
Resistance should appear near 1334 to 1346 , a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 1377 to 1383 and eventually the 1415 to 1421 region, where sellers should appear and cap rallies.
Trade Accordingly…
MARCH SOYOIL
Resistance should appear near 44110 to 4120. Above that a test of 4163 to 4183 is likely should bring out sellers, beyond that 4238 to 4249 should cap rallies.
Support should appear near the 4056 to 4046 region, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of the 3992 to 3982 region. Below that buyers should appear near 3929 to 3909.
MARCH SOYMEAL
Resistance should appear near 430.4 to 431.5 and the 437.0 to 438.1region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 442.5 to 444.6 and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 418.3 to 416.3. Below that buyers should appear near 412.0 to 411.0 and the 405.6 to 404.6 region. Traders can buy at 405.6 and risk 3.00. Below that 399.2 to 398.2 should hold. Buy Dips
MARCH CORN
Support should appear near and 418 ¼ to 416 ¼ then 412 to 411 and the 399 ¼ to 398 ¼ region.
Resistance should appear near 430 ½ to 431 ½ and the 437 to 438 ¼ region. Beyond that 442 ½ to 444 ¾ should bring out sellers and cap a rally.
MARCH WHEAT
Resistance should appear near 674 ¼ to 675 ¾ and the 680 ¾ to 683 ¾ region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 690 ¾ to 691 ¾.
Support should appear near 667 ¼ to 665 ¾, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 650 ¾ to 648 ¾. Below that buyers should appear near 643 to 641 ¾. Stay tuned for Grain Flashes.
THE LIVELY LIVESTOCK
FEB CATTLE
Support should appear near 13400, a close under augurs for a test of 13340. Below that a test of
13237 is likely and should bring out buyers.. Failure there is negative and augurs for a test of 13100 to 13040 which should hold.
Resistance should appear near 13530. Beyond that a test of the 13770 to 13830 region is likely and should cap a rally.
FEB HOGS
Support should appear near 9042, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 8957 to 8932 and the 8872 to 8857 region.
Resistance should appear near 9137 to 9157. Traders can sell at 9132 and hold for lower prices.
Beyond that sellers should appear near 9317 to 9347 and cap a rally.
Traders should go short if a close under 9037 occurs.
APRIL HOGS
Support should appear near 9317 to 9347, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 9157 to 9142 and the 9062 to 9042 region.
Resistance should appear near the 9427 to 9447. Beyond that sellers should appear near 9522 to 9547. Traders can sell at 9522 and risk a close over 9567 for three days in a row.
Traders should go short if a close under 9312 occurs.
JUNE HOGS
Support should appear near 9937 to 9922 and the 9837 to 9822 region.
Resistance should appear near 10102 to 10137 and the 10317 to 10357 region.
Stay tuned for Livestock flashes.
THE SATISFYING SOFTS
MARCH COFFEE
Support should appear near 11010 to 10960 and 10820. Below that buyers should appear near the 10680 to 10580 region.
Resistance should appear 11155, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 11300 to 11360. Beyond that a test of 11640 to 11690 is likely.
MARCH COCOA
Resistance should appear near 2820 to 2829. A close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 2874 to 2883 and eventually the 2928 to 2937 and 2972 to 2990 region.
Support should appear near 2775 to 2758 and 2724 to 2716. Traders can buy at 2731and hold for higher prices. Below that buyers should appear near the 2672 to 2663 region Stay tuned for Flashes
MARCH SUGAR
Resistance is near 1731 to 1738, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 1774 to 1780 and the 1808 to 1822 region.
Support should appear near the 1696 to 1689 region. Traders can buy at 1697 and risk 30 points. Below that buyers should appear near 1655 to 1642.
Traders should go long if a close over 1739 occurs.
MARCH COTTON
Support should appear near 7864 to 7836, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 7777 to 7763 and the 7589 to 7560 region.
Resistance is at 7959, beyond that a test of 8029 to 8044 and the 8119 to 8124 region is likely.
Stay tuned for Flashes and Updates in all Markets
–A Ship in Harbor is Safe…But that is not what ships are built for –
Happy Trading!
Bill wil@futurescom.com
Sunday December 01, 2013 6:00 AM South Florida Beach Time
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