FuturesCom Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook # 450 June 15 2014 SP500 and Equity Indices • Bonds • Currency Trading • Forex • Precious Metals • Energy • Grains • Livestock • Coffee • Sugar • Cocoa • Cotton. Free Two Week Trial see https://futurescom.com/free-trial-2
“A lot of people approach risk as if it’s the enemy, when it’s really fortunes accomplice.”
Saturday June 14, 2014 4:00 AM, South Florida Beach Time.
Traders should stay nimble and stay tuned for Flashes and Updates for all Markets. The major averages were lower on the week, the SP500 was down 0.7%, while the Nasdaq ended the week lower by 0.3% and the Dow Industrials were down .9%. The sharp rise in oil prices over this week weighed on transport stocks late in the week.
Traders should look for trading opportunities from both sides of the stock market.
U.S economic data is mixed. The Producer Price Index for May declined 0.2%. The downturn in May was attributed to a 0.2% decline in the indexes for final demand services and final demand goods. Excluding food and energy, core PPI declined 0.1% both figures show very little pricing pressures. Prices for processed goods fell by 0.1%, the index for unprocessed goods was unchanged, and prices for services declined by 0.4%. The preliminary reading for the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report for June dipped to 81.2 from the final reading of 81.9 for May. The June figure was the lowest reading since March. The World Bank cut its 2014 global growth outlook to 2.8% from 3.2%, while also revising projections for several major economies.
The forecast for U.S. GDP was lowered to 2.1% from 2.8%, while China’s GDP numbers were lowered to 7.6% from 7.7%. U.S retail sales rose by 0.3%. Core retail sales, a good indicator of the consumption component of GDP, dipped 0.1% in May. In Forex Markets the Euro is a bit lower on the year. The extended trading below 13770 continues to indicate the Euro can test 13460. Ditto for Swiss Franc futures the downside target is 11010 to 10960. Cable is range bound and remains in a tight trading range. The British Pound is higher on the year and has priced in rate hikes, continued unimpeded growth and needs to begin to close over 16960 to sustain the advance for a move towards 17310 to 17380. Buy dips with tight stops. USD/CAD is still broadly range bound. We remain friendly USD/CAD for the near term. The Dollar-Yen is a trading affair. Stay tuned for Forex Flashes and ideas during the week. Analysis for overseas equity and foreign exchange markets not listed in today’s newsletter are available upon request, for more detailed information please call or email a request.
Precious Metals and Energy;
The typical low point in silver is in autumn. Gold has acted a bit better recently but remains largely sideways. Both silver and gold are trading affairs and should get some help for buyers seeking safety from stress in the Mideast. That stress will keep energy markets in focus next week. Crude oil is currently higher on the year. Geopolitical issues can push crude higher. The maps of the region will likely be different in a few years than what anyone alive now has seen. Unless your 120 years old. Look for a trading range from 103.00 to 113.00 in WTI and for Brent crude the high side is likely higher up to 116.00 and perhaps higher into the mid 120’s. If a parabolic price spike occurs and containment is lost and prices leave the general trading area that we are in now the topside is substantially higher into the 11920 to 12030 region and that can happen. Copper fell back down and if it dips back to under the 3.00 region we will take a look at it for a value trade. The trend is down, however seasonal weakness normally abates in late June and might see some short covering… Stay tuned for energy and precious metal trades and flashes.
Grains; Traders should begin to prepare for the dog days of summer. Buying July Soybeans and Selling November under 1.80 looks attractive and look for trading ranges and short term trades.
Wheat typically makes lows for the remainder of the year over the next month. Traders should look for a range bound market to begin. Also look for December Wheat to gain on December corn.
Buying December wheat and selling December corn typically makes money until approximately the third week of July. Wheat is oversold it could bounce sharply.
Stay tuned for grain flashes for trading from both sides.
Livestock; The Livestock markets are a day to day trading affairs. Live Cattle is likely making decade highs. The expected supply decrease in hogs is now priced in for July and later and hogs are a trading affair. Stay tuned for Livestock Flashes
Softs; Cocoa made new contracts highs against our targets before setting back a bit. A dip is likely traders can buy a sharp pull back and trade it from perhaps both sides. October Sugar tends to rise into the Fourth of July and the Dog Days of Summer. Traders should buy dips, maintain the long posture and stay tuned for flashes. Coffee is a trading range. December Cotton is cheap under 7400 cents.
Traders should stay nimble and stay tuned for Flashes and Updates in all Markets.
Onto the nitty-gritty.
THE SENSATIONAL STOCK AND BOND MARKET
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE
Support should appear near 16,550.00 to 16,420.00 failure there augurs for a test of the
16,150.00 to 16, 090.00 region, where buyers should appear and contain declines. Resistance is at 16,890.00 to 16,960.00 then 17,135.00 and the 17,310.00 to 17,380.00 region.
DOW JONES TRANSPORTS
Support should appear near 7864.00 to 7836.00 and the 7777.00 to 777.63 region.
Resistance is at the 8119.00 to 8134.00 then 8194.00 to 8223.00 and the 8300.00 to 8314.00 region
SEPTEMBER E-MINI SP500
Resistance is at 1946.00 to 1953.00 and the 1982.00 to 1996.00 region. Traders can sell at 1945.25 for a trade and initially risk a close over 1953.75 for three days in a row. Support should appear near 1909.0 to 1902.0 and the 1865.00 to 1858.00 region.
Traders can buy at 1865.25 for a bounce and hold for higher prices, risking 10 points initially.
NASDAQ COMPOSITE
Resistance should appear at 4370.00 to 4381.00 and the 4425.00 to 4446.00 region. Support should appear near 4249.00 to 4238.00 and the 4183.00 to 4163.00 region. Below that buyers should appear near 4120.0 to 4110.0.
SEPTEMBER E-MINI NASDAQ 100
Support should appear near 3682 to 3663 and the 3623.00 to 3613.00 region, which should hold.
Resistance is at 3770.00 then 3795.00 to 3806.00 and the 3858.00 to 3867.00 region.
SEPTEMBER E-MINI RUSSELL 2000
Resistance should appear at 1164.00 to 1169.00 and 1180.50. Beyond that sellers should appear near the 1192.00 to 1203.00 region.
Support should appear near 1136.00 to 1130.00, below that a test of 1115.50 and 1101.00 to 1096.00 is likely.
SEPTEMBER 30 YR BONDS
Resistance should appear near 136-07 and 136-21. Beyond that sellers should appear near 137-21 and 138-07 where sellers should cap a rally. Support should appear near 135-21 and 135-07. Below that a test of 134-21 is likely.
SEPTEMBER 10 YR NOTE
Resistance should appear near 125-07 and 125-21. Above that a test of 126-07 is likely and where sellers should appear and cap rallies.
Support should appear near 124-07 and 123-21, below that buyers should appear near 123-07 and contain a decline.
THE FRENZIED FOREX FRONT
SEPTEMBER DOLLAR INDEX
Resistance should appear near 8119 to 8134. Beyond that a test of 8194 to 8223 is likely.
Support should appear near 8044 to 8029 and the 7954 to 7939 region. SEPTEMBER JAPANESE YEN Resistance should appear near 9921 to 9937, beyond that a test of 10021 to 10037 is likely. Support should appear near 9779 and the 9737 to 9706 region. Below that buyers should appear near 9641 to 9625 and contain a decline.
SEPTEMBER EURO CURRENCY
Support should appear near the 13460 to 13340 region. Nearby resistance is at 13615 and 13687. Beyond that sellers should appear near 13770 to 13830. Traders can sell at 13687 and hold for lower prices.
SEPTEMBER SWISS FRANC
Resistance should appear near 11300 to 11360.
Support is near the 11010 to 10960 region.
SEPTEMBER BRITISH POUND
Support should appear near 16890 and 16720. Traders can buy at 16892 and risk 50 points. Resistance should appear near 17130 and the 17310 to 17380 region. A close over 16960 is friendly … trade accordingly
SEPTEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
Resistance should appear near 9237 and the 9316 to 9347 region. Support should appear near 9156 to 9140 , a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 9060 to 9044.
SEPTEMBER AUSSIE DOLLAR Support should appear near 9231, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 9156 to 9140. Resistance should appear near 9347. Beyond that a test of 9429 to 9445 is likely.
THE PRECIOUS METALS
AUGUST GOLD
Resistance should appear near 1289 an extended close over augurs for a test of the 1304.0 to 1310.0 region.
Support should appear near 1268.00 and 1238.0 to 1232.0, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 1203.0 to 1192.0.
Pick your poison…
SEPTEMBER COPPER Resistance should appear near 30360 to 30450 and the 30920 to 31020 region.
Support should appear near 29900 to 29720, below that a test of 29370 to 29280 is likely.
SEPTEMBER SILVER
Support should appear near 1953.0 to 1946.0 and the 1909.00 to 1902.00 region.
Resistance is at 1982.0 to 1996.0 and the 2034.0 to 2042.0 region.
THE EXCITING ENERGIES
AUGUST CRUDE OIL
Support should appear near 10580 and the 10320 to 10360 region.
Resistance should appear near 10960 to 11010, beyond that a test of the 11300 to 11360 and the 11640 to 11690 region is likely.
AUGUST BRENT CRUDE OIL
Resistanceshould appear near 11920 to 12030 and the 12320 to 12380 region. Supportshould appear near 11155 and 11010 to 10960 region.
JULY HEATING OIL
Support should appear near should appear near 29720 and 29370 to 29280. Resistance should appear 30360 to 30450, beyond that a test of 31480 to 31570 is likely.
JULY UNLEADED GAS
Support should appear 30450 to 30360 and 29900 to 29720
Resistance should appear near 30920 to 31020, beyond that a test of 31940 to 32130 and the 33190 to 33280 region is likely.
AUGUST NATURAL GAS
Resistance should appear 4.775 to 4.785 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 4.845 to 4.856 and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 4.446 to 4.425 and the 4.315 to 4.304 region.
THE GRANDE’ GRAINS
JULY SOYBEANS Support should appear near 1399 and the 1383 to 1377 region.
Resistance should appear near 1437 and the 1453 to 1459 region.
AUGUST SOYBEANS
Support should appear near 1346 to 1334 and contain a decline, under that 1310 to 1304 should hold.
Resistance should appear near 1377 to 1383 and the 1415 to 1421 region where sellers should appear and cap a rally. Trade Accordingly
NOVEMBER SOYBEANS Support should appear near the 1203 to 1192 region, below that a test of 1169 to 1164 is likely.
Resistance should appear near 1232 to 1238. Beyond that sellers should appear near 1268 to 1274.
JULY SOYOIL Resistance should appear near the 4110 to 4120 and the 4238 to 4248 region. Support should appear near 3929 to 3909 and the 3806 to 3795 region.
JULY SOYMEAL
Resistance should appear near 477.5 to 478.5
Support should appear near 451.4 to 450.3 and 438.1 to 437.0
AUGUST SOYMEAL
Resistance should appear near 450.3 to 451.4 and the 457.1 to 458.2 region.
Support should appear near 438.1 to 437.0, below that a test of 431.5 to 430.4 is likely.
Trade Accordingly
JULY CORN
Support should appear near 444 ¾ to 442 ½ and the 438 ¼ to 437 1/4 region. Resistance should appear near 450 ¼ to 451 ¼ and the 457 ¼ to 458 ¼ region.
JULY WHEAT
Support should appear near 580 ½ to 579 ¼ and 572 ¾ to 571 ¾ Resistance should appear near 602 ¾ to 603 ¾ and the 616 ½ to 619 region.
THE LIVELY LIVESTOCK
AUGUST CATTLE
Support should appear near 14530 to 14590
Resistance should appear near 14840 to 14960
OCTOBER CATTLE Support should appear near 14840 and 14710
13830 to 13770
Resistance should appear near 15290 to 15350 and 15690 to 15760
JULY HOGS
Support should appear near 12380 to 12320 Resistance should appear near 12740 then 12890 and 13040 to 13100
AUGUST HOGS
Support should appear near 13100 to 13040 and 12740 to 12680 Resistance should appear near 13340 to 13460 and 13770 to 13830
OCTOBER HOGS
Support should appear near 11010 to 10960 and 10680 to 10580 Resistance should appear near 11300 to 11360 and 11640 to 11690
THE SATISFYING SOFTS
SEPTEMBER COFFEE
Resistance should appear near 19020 to 19090 and the 20800 to 20890 region.
Support should appear near the 17380 to 17310 and the 16960 to 16890 region and should bring out buyers and contain a decline.
SEPTEMBER COCOA
Resistance should appear near 3148 to 3157. Beyond that sellers should appear near 3194 to 3213.
Support should appear near 3045 to 3036 and the 2990 to 2972 region. Below that a test of 2937 to 2928 should hold. Traders can buy at 2941 and hold for higher prices.
OCTOBER SUGAR
Resistance is near the 1858 to 1865 region. A close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 1902 to 1909. Support should appear near the 1738 to 1731 region. Below that buyers should appear near 1696 to 1689 and contain a decline.
DECEMBER COTTON
Support should appear near 7689 to 7875 and the 7601 to 7587 region. Resistance is at 7939 to 7954 and 8029 to 8044
Stay tuned for Flashes and Updates in all Markets
–A Ship in Harbor is Safe…But that is not what ships are built for –
Happy Trading!
Bill wil@futurescom.com
Sunday June 15, 2014 12:00 Noon South Florida Beach Time
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