FuturesCom Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook # 405 Sunday September 23 2012 SP500 and Equity Indices • Bonds • Forex • Precious Metals • Energy • Grains • Livestock • Coffee • Sugar • Cocoa • Cotton. Free Two Week Trial see https://futurescom.com/free-trial-2 .
‘Fortune Favors the Bold’
Saturday September 22, 2012
4:00 AM South Florida Beach Time
Stay tuned for Flashes and Updates in all Markets.
Equities; as ‘end of quarter and end of month window dressing’ comes into play traders should be nimble. We expect US presidential polling and a plethora of babble associated with the results to increase volatility in the stock market. Additionally equity traders should note the extreme breakdown of the Transportation averages. While it may not mean much to the average trader, it is not a good sign and begs the question; if QE is meant to raise asset prices and the Fed has been explicit about stock prices then why have the transports broken under the July Lows and is now lower on the year ?
Look for bonds to show upward bias.
Forex markets; Japanese Yen strength is overdone, typically Dollar Yen makes its lows into the October November period and exhibits strength into Spring… Buy Dollar Yen and Look to Sell Yen futures. Additionally look for renewed flight to safety amid slow growth concerns to lend support to the dollar, seasonally the dollar tends to make a low in late September and Early October. This weekend Eurozone officials are letting the markets know they will ‘Lever’ the ESM to about Two Trillion Euros, obviously everything done so far is not enough and problems remain, the euro remains a trading affair. Failure to maintain a higher bias over 13100 is negative. Cable Strength is late September and Early October should lead to lower prices in November. Buy nearby dips but be prepared to sell and Hold. Stay tuned for flashes in Forex Markets
Precious Metals; Seasonally Copper tends to dip into October and November, Sell rallies or just plain Sell. Gold appears overdone a bit to the upside, While Deflation concerns and slowing global growth can lead to setbacks traders can buy a dip for trading. Silver acted sloppy last week, typically silver turn friendly after weakness in October. Silver bulls perhaps should wait for lower prices; nimble traders can sell a rally, but use tight stops.
Energy markets; While Unleaded Gas and Crude can end September sloppy, the decline appears overdone and crude oil can move into October with some strength, remain long and trade from the long side over the near term…
Agricultural Markets; While we remain negative for the short term in sugar, traders can sell a rally and look for a low into early October that can lead to higher prices into mid to late October… thus trade from both sides. Traders can buy dips in coffee and Sell rallies in cotton, Cocoa normally acts lousy during October and should get some Harvest Pressure Sell a rally. Cattle should show some ability to hold up on declines, Buy December and April Cattle on Dips. We remain negative to hogs and look for trading opportunities for both back end and front month December, buying back-end hogs and selling front end should provide work as December hogs can grind lower into Autumn after the September strength erodes, stay tuned for livestock updates and flashes.. Grain markets are correcting during harvest and can be traded from both sides as harvest pressure usually is followed by higher markets….. Wheat is expensive compared to the rest of the world but typically does not top until November or December and we prefer to buy a dip. Stay tuned for flashes.
THE SENSATIONAL STOCK AND BOND MARKET
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE
Support should appear near 13,460.00 to 13,340.00.
Resistance remains appear near the 13,770.00 to 13,830.00 region.
DECEMBER E-MINI SP500
Resistance should appear near 1453.00 to 1459.00 and the 1484.00 to 1496.00 region
Support should appear near 1437.00 and the 1421.00 to 1415.00 region.
NASDAQ COMPOSITE
Resistance should appear near 3194.00 to 3213.00 and the 3261.00 to 3270.00 region.
Support should appear near 3157.00 to 3148.00, below that a test of 3102 to 3092 is likely.
DECEMBER E-MINI NASDAQ 100
Support should appear near the 2829.00 to 2820.00 region.
Resistance should appear near 2874.00 to 2883.00 and 2928.00 to 2937.00
DECEMBER E-MINI RUSSELL 2000
Resistance should appear near 856.00 to 858.90 and the 866.80 to 868.30 region.
Support should appear near 849.90 to 848.40 and the 840.60 to 839.10 region.
DECEMBER 30 YR BOND
Resistance should appear near 147-21 and 148-07, beyond that a test of 148-21 is likely which should cap a rally.
Support should appear near 146-07 and 145-21, below that a test of 144-21 is likely and should hold. .
DECEMBER 10 YR NOTE
Resistance should appear near 133-07 and the 133-21 to 134-07 region.
Support should appear near 132-07 and 131-21. Below that a test of 131-07 is likely
THE FRENZIED FOREX FRONT
DECEMBER DOLLAR INDEX
Resistance should appear near 7957, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 8029 to 8044
Support should appear near 7939 and 7864 to 7836
Traders should go long if a close over 7957 occurs.
DECEMBER JAPANESE YEN
Resistance should appear near 12890 and the 13040 to 13100 region.
Traders can sell at 13030 and risk a close over 13110.
Support should appear near 12740 to12680 and 12617… Traders should go short if a close under 12672 occurs.
DECEMBER EURO CURRENCY
Support should appear near 12890 and the 12740 to 12680 region.
Resistance should appear near 13040 to 13100 then 13220 and the 13340 to 13460 region…
DECEMBER SWISS FRANC
Resistance should appear near 10757 and 10820. Beyond that sellers should appear near 10960 to 11010. Traders can sell at 10957 and hold for lower prices.
Support should appear near 10680 to 10630 and 10580, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 10470 and eventually the 10360 to 10320 region.
DECEMBER BRITISH POUND
Support should appear near 16150 to16090, traders can buy at 16157 for a bounce and risk a close under 16088 for three days in a row.
Resistance should appear near 16420 to 16550 and should cap rallies. Traders can sell at 16417 for a turn lower and risk a close over 16557.
DECEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
Resistance should appear near the 10320 to 10360 region.
Support should appear near 10185 and 10138 to 10104…
DECEMBER AUSSIE DOLLAR
Resistance should appear near 10470 and 10580 to 10680
Support should appear near 10360 to10320.
Trade accordingly and Stay tuned for Forex Flashes ….
THE PRECIOUS METALS
DECEMBER GOLD
Resistance should appear near the 1808.00 to 1822.00 region.
Support is near 1757 and 1738 to 1731… Traders can buy at 1739 and risk 12.00
DECEMBER COPPER
Resistance should appear near 37950 to 38060 and 38580 to 38650.
Traders can sell at 38550 and hold for lower prices.
Support should appear near 37430 to 37340 and the 36820 to 36630 region
DECEMBER SILVER
Resistance should appear near 3553 to 3563 and 3613 to 3623… Beyond that sellers should appear near the 3663 to 3682 region and cap a rally.
Support is at 3443 to 3425, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 3386 to 3377, below that a test of 3328 to 3391 is likely.
THE EXCITING ENERGIES
NOVEMBER CRUDE OIL
Resistance should appear near 9316 to 9347 a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 9429 to 9445 and eventually the 9706 to 9737 region.
Support should appear near 9156 to 9140 and 9060 to 9044 and the 8964 to 8934 region.
NOVEMBER HEATING OIL
Support should appear near 31020 to 30920 and the 30450 to 30360 region.
Resistance should appear near 31480 to 31570, beyond that a test of 31940 to 32130 is likely.
NOVEMBER UNLEADED GAS
Resistance should appear near 28200 to 28290 and the 28740 to 28830 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 29720 to 29900 and the 30360 to 300450 region.
Support should appear near 27750 to 27580 and the 27240 to 27160 region… Below that buyers should appear near 26720 to 26630 and contain a decline.
NOVEMBER NATURAL GAS
Resistance should appear at 3092 to 3102 and 3148 to 3157
Support should appear near 3045 to 3036 and 2883 to 2874… Below that buyers should appear near 2829 to 280 and contain a decline.
THE GRANDE’ GRAINS
JANUARY SOYBEANS
Support should appear near 1615 to 1609 and 1576 to 1569. Below that buyers should appear near 1535 to 1529… Traders can buy at 1537 for a bounce and risk 15 cents
Resistance should appear near 1642 to 1655 and the 1689 to 1696 region… Traders can sell at 1687 and risk 15 cents.
DECEMBER SOYMEAL
Resistance should appear near 491.5 to 492.6 and the 505.6 to 506.7 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 512.7 to 513.9.
Support should appear near 471.7 to 469.5 and the 465.0 to 463.9 region. Below that a test of 444.6 to 442.5 is likely.
DECEMBER BEAN OIL
Resistance should appear near 5492 to 5504 and the 5553 to 5577 region… Beyond that sellers should appear near 5640 to 5653.
Support should appear near 5430 to 5418… Below that a test of 5356 to 5344 and the 5282 to 5259 region is likely.
DECEMBER CORN
Support should appear near 742 ¾ to 741 ¾ and 734 ¼ to 742 ¾. Below that buyers should appear near 717 to 714 ¾
Resistance should appear near 758 ¾ to 760 ¼ and 767 ½ to 768 ¾… Beyond that sellers should appear near 776 ¾ to 777 ¾ and cap a rally.
DECEMBER WHEAT
Resistance should appear near 904 ½ to 906, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 931 ¾ to 934 ¾.
Support should appear near 868 ½ to 866 ¾ and 849 ¾ to 848 ½… Below that buyers should appear near 831 ½ to 830 and the 804 ½ to 804 regions…
THE LIVELY LIVESTOCK
DECEMBER CATTLE
Support should appear near 12740 to 12680
Traders can buy at 12747, risk a close under 12677 for three days in a row.
Resistance should appear near 12890 and 13040 to 13100.
FEBRUARY CATTLE
Support should appear near 13100 to 13040 and the 12890
Resistance should appear near 13340 to 13460 and the 13770 to 13830 region. .
OCTOBER HOGS
Support should appear near 7517 to 7487 and the 7432 to 7412 region… Below that a test of
7342 to 7327 is likely
Resistance should appear near 7587 to 7602 and the 7672 to 7692 region
DECEMBER HOGS
Support should appear near 7432 to 7412, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 7342 to 7327.
Resistance should appear near 7512 and 7587 to 7602. Beyond that sellers should appear near 7672 to 7687 Traders should go short if a close under 7407 occurs.
FEBRUARY HOGS
Support should appear near 8047 to 8027 and the 7957 to 7937 region.
Resistance should appear near 8192 to 8222 and the 8300 to 8317 region
Stay tuned for Livestock Flashes and Updates.
THE SATISFYING SOFTS
DECEMBER COFFEE
Support should appear near 16960 to 16890 and the 16550 to 16420 region… Traders can buy at 16575 and hold for higher prices.
Resistance should appear near 17310 to 17380… Beyond that sellers should appear near 17740 to 17800 and the 18080 to 18220 region.
Stay tuned for Flashes and Trade accordingly
DECEMBER COCOA
Resistance should appear near 2552 to 2568 and the 2612 to 2628 region… Traders can sell at 2611 and hold for lower prices… Beyond that resistance should appear near 2663 to 2672…
Support should appear near 2469 to 2461 and the 2419 to 2411 region.
Trade Accordingly.
MARCH SUGAR
Support is at 1996 to1982 and the 1953 to 1946 region… Below that a test of 1865 to 1858 is likely… Under that buyers should appear near 1822 to 1808, Traders can buy at 1823 and risk 30 points.
Resistance should appear near 2034 to 2042 and the 2080 to 2089 region
Traders can sell at 2033 and risk a close over 2062 for three days in a row
DECEMBER COTTON
Support should appear near 7255 to 7242 and the 7170 to 7142 region Below that a test of 7003 to 6990 is likely.
Resistance is near 7414 to 7428 and the 7486 to 7513 region. Traders can sell at 7485 and hold for lower prices. Beyond that resistance should appear near 7587 to 7601 and cap a rally.
Stay tuned for Flashes and Updates in all Markets
–A Ship in Harbor is Safe…But that is not what ships are built for —
Happy Trading!
Bill wil@futurescom.com
Sunday September 23, 2012
2:30 PM South Florida Beach Time
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FuturesCom Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook # 405 Sunday Sepember 23, 2012 Equity Indices – Treasuries – Forex – Precious Metals – Energy – Grains – Livestock – Softs
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