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FuturesCom  Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook # 426 July 14 2013  SP500 and  Equity Indices • Bonds • Currency Trading • Forex • Precious Metals • Energy • Grains • Livestock • Coffee •  Sugar • Cocoa  • Cotton.  Free Two Week Trial see https://futurescom.com/free-trial-2

 

Welcome to the ‘Dog Days of Summer’; the time of the year from the first to second week of July to the second or third week of August has been known as ‘Dog Days of summer’; of course the period varies according to region……In the ancient Mediterranean region it coincided with hot days that were plagued with disease and discomfort.

 

Saturday July 13, 2013

4:00 AM South Florida Beach Time

Last week the consumer sentiment unexpectedly cooled in July as Americans became less optimistic about the outlook for the economy.  The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment decreased to 83.9 in July from 84.1 the month prior.  The average guess was a gain to a level of 84.7 that would breach the six year high of 84.5 in May.

Investors continued to move away from some assets and bonds accumulated over the last few years and back to ‘U.S stocks’. U.S 30 yr. Treasury bond futures set new contracts lows last week then bounced and closed Friday higher with rates moving a bit lower. The Long Term technical work for U.S Treasuries remains bearish however, during July US 30 Year bond futures tend to stabilize and firm a bit, yet really have not shown any strength.  Buying December Futures at the end of July tends to make money during August; traders should keep that on the back burner.

Stocks futures held firm with NASDAQ and Russell stock futures making new contracts highs then closing a bit off those highs.  Look for a two way market over the next week or two for a mid-month dip in a bull market for a rally into the end of the month.
Meanwhile Crude Oil prices surged to a one year highs. Unleaded Gas prices rose sharply and will likely push prices higher at the nation’s pumps during the last throes of summer vacations over the next month.  Crude has in the past not peaked until August and September, however supplies are plentiful. Heating Oil typically firms into July and August, while Unleaded normally moves sideways to down a bit, which is typically good for US consumers. Therefore any sustained or sharp rise is not good and it appears that unleaded is getting ready leave the area to the upside. WTI Crude continues to act well amid geopolitical uncertainties and prospects for US growth.
Speaking of growth, Sunday night China will release the country’s GDP figures. Traders should look for China GDP of 6.5 % to 7 ½ %. U.S Retail sales figures will be released Monday and Consumer Price Index will be released Tuesday. On Wednesday, Housing Starts will be released along with Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s first part of testimony before congressional finance committees that is scheduled to run into Thursday. Traders should note of the upcoming meeting of G20 Finance and Central banks representatives in the third week of the month. World leaders and politicians are in the process of closing up shop for the summer as a rush of meetings and ‘kitchen sink ‘speeches.

Remember leaders tend to take longer and more expensive vacations than the populations under them and a plethora of verbal noise will be coming out as the political classes try to appease populations before they go on vacation.

Long term yearly technical patterns for US Stock Index Averages remain friendly. Contrarily (mentioned in our previous issue) some overseas equity markets such as Brazil and China remain in lousy shape. Brazil’s Bovespa sank to new recent lows and bounced a bit in the first two weeks of July yet sits below the close of April 2009 and is well below year end 2012 levels. China’s Shanghai Index dropped sharply in early July and bounced back nicely and also sits under  the year-end close but not as much as Brazil, some stabilization should occur if the Shanghai is going to claw its way back. Japan’s Nikkei remains up on the year but off the highs of the year. Long term the Nikkei is constructive and friendly.  European stock indices vary across the board; France, Spain and Italy are messy when compared to Germany’s DAX which remains firm. London’s FTSE has shown a wide and volatile range over the last 2 Months and is higher on the year and near all-time highs.
If you need detailed analysis regarding overseas equity markets, please call the office or email a request.  Traders should stay tuned for flashes and trades from both sides of markets and be nimble.
Foreign exchange traders should continue to consider the Japanese Yen futures as a trading affair.  Long term the USD/JPY remains bullish which is bearish for Yen Futures. Yen can stabilize in this region and push higher with a weaker dollar yen into August. Typically the Dollar Index will see a peak in price in the June and July time frame and so far has done that, conversely Euro is still in the trading range it has been for a long time and remains a trading affair as does Cable. Fed Talk and babble from governments have widened trading ranges and should provide ample action on both sides of the markets.

There is no change to our north of the US border posture regarding the Canuck, selling rallies is preferred for the long term. The typical high point for Canadian Dollar Futures is in July, a slip into August should not be ruled out after a rally into Mid-July. Traders should use a mid-month rally to get short.  Forex traders can look for stabilization of USD/CAD in the 10360 to 10320 region. A sustained level over 10360 is friendly and augurs for more tests to the upside. Buying Cable and Selling the Canuck and Aussie tends to make money in the latter parts of July and into early August… The Aussie Dollar set new recent lows on Friday and Traders should look to sell rallies. Additionally the Kiwi remains under pressure. Forex Traders should sell Kiwi for lower prices.  Both are lower on the year and year over year. While the declines appear overdone short term, these declines can last for quite some time. Typically the Aussie peaks into July and then gets weaker into August and September and tests the March Lows which we remain well below.  Lower prices are likely and it’s not cheap yet. Consider the Aussie a trading affair. Sell rallies.

Gold and silver along with Copper are showing some recovery how much higher is the real question  Silver should act better than gold if the metals are going to firm a bit. Copper can stall into mid- month.  Regardless of the direction, the precious metals are volatile and lower on the year but higher than the end of June. Traders should stay tuned for day to day flashes and treat them as trading affairs.

Agricultural Commodities; the Dog Days of Summer and Weather markets are here;
Soybeans

Soybeans will be a day to day trading affair, front month Soybeans remain higher on the year.  Soymeal remains higher on the year even after Friday’s sharp decline.  Soybean and Soymeal tend to act better in the first half of July and end on low ebb and that appears to be happening… Ditto for Bean Oil which typically exhibits rise into mid-July and then tends to grind lower in autumn harvest. Traders should look for a less of a two way market and some more weakness now that news is generally out of the way.  Traders should stay nimble and watch the weather as weather holds key to market direction during July and August.  Thursday’s USDA report kept current ending soybean stocks at 125 million bushels. During the ‘Dog Days’ if weather fears return in late July into August old versus  new crop spreads should support the front end in both soybeans and meal considering the tight supply. Looking at new crop, the USDA raised the 2013/14 ending stocks to 295 million bushels, up from the June estimate of 265, higher than trade guesses of 263 million. Planted acreage rose a tad to 77.7 million acres the average yield was essentially unchanged at 44.5 bushels per acre and puts the 2013/14 production 3.42 billion bushels as compared with 3.39 in June. The data was a bit bearish… World ending stocks for 2013/14 were estimated at 74.12 MMT as compared to 73.69 MMT in June. China import demand did not change at 69 MMT compared to 59 MMT for the 2012/13 season look for those numbers to decrease in future reports. Bean Oil continues to be hampered by a burdensome supply of world vegetable oil. Sell a rally and focus on a low in harvest to get long.

Corn; last week’s USDA reports was deemed bearish and like soybeans is attracting weather trading. The USDA report estimated US ending stocks for 2013/14 at 1.959 billion bushels, up slightly from 1.949 billion in June. Planted acreage was a hair higher at 97.4 million acres vs. 97.3 million in June; the national average yield was unchanged at 156.5 bushels. 2012/13 ending stocks are estimated to be 729 million bushels versus the June data of 769 mil. The World’s ending stocks were reported at 150.97 MMT for the 2013/14 marketing year, lower than from the June data of 151.83 MMT and a 12-year high.  All eyes continue to watch the weather. The next move up or down will depend on weekend weather developments.

Wheat    Chicago Wheat typically makes its low into July harvest look for stabilization and perhaps a grind higher into autumn.  Traders should look to buy (a dip is preferred) and hold for the pull in Chicago Wheat (and KC wheat). Typically during August Chicago Wheat will not breach the July lows if prices will firm into autumn.
Demand remains supportive and last week’s USDA report should be construed as friendly to bullish. 2013/14 Chicago wheat carryout was pegged at 113 million bushels, down from the 2012/13 carryout of 124 million and the lowest level in 6 years.  Exports are estimated at the highest level since 1989. While Chicago wheat is mostly overpriced relative to the world market. Production was estimated at 539 million bushels versus estimates of 550 million bushels. The higher end of estimates is still attainable as supply can grow a bit, buying a dip for accumulation can occur. There are reports that Egypt has 2 months of supply left considering the recent turmoil in Egypt and public discontent with the former leader can be largely attributed to food as hungry populations tend to go to the streets more than a well fed population state purchases can be brought forward to quell discontent. If that occurs Black Sea and EU Wheat exporters should be happy as those regions are first to benefit in wheat trade with Egypt.
Sales of US wheat has been healthy to start the 2013/14 crop year which may result in higher prices over the long term. Both the Chicago and KC ending stocks estimates are sitting at
6-year lows, Chicago Wheat Supplies can increase in supply before harvest ends, however that is likely to erode as being importance as time passes. Any increases in demand for KC wheat could mean further downside in the ending stocks estimate and the Funds are basically short   On the Global scale last week’s USDA report showed declines in the US and World wheat carry-outs for the 2013/14 crop year.  Weather in the southern hemisphere is a factor and the demand supply balance does not have a lot of excess that would prevent wheat from moving higher. The 2013/14 US all wheat carryout was estimated to be 576 million bushels down from June’s numbers of 659 and above the streets guess of 632  The decline in carryout was attributed to upward revisions of export numbers that rose to 1.075 million bushels from 975 in June and up from 1.009 in 2012/13. U.S Exports continue to be supportive with the new marketing year directly in front of the market. Sale are 40% of the USDA forecast versus the 5 year average of 27%.

World ending stocks for 2013/14 are reported to be 172.38 MMT, down from June’s 181 million and lower than one year ago levels 174.47 million. This is a 5-year low for ending stocks. Chinese imports of wheat rose 8.50 MMT up from 3.50 in June.  Those numbers reflect the largest import forecast for China since the 1995/96 crop years 12.53 mil. Economists at the USDA decreased the numbers due to reports of damaged crops and nearby purchases. Current trends we see support the move by the USDA. Additionally traders may wish to keep an eye on weather in Australia, Australia’s soil moisture deficit is friendly but rainfall is expected soon. Australian production is critical as their production is along the supply route to China.

Cattle ;  U.S. beef exports to Japan for May were the best since October 2003  and are up 50% versus  a year ago for the first five months of 2013. Total U.S. beef exports are down 2%. Russia’s ban on meat containing ractopamine has stopped all shipments there, beef exports to Mexico and Korea are down nearly 25%.  A stronger dollar is also plaguing exports.
The best thing for beef prices is to encourage domestic demand and that’s not going anywhere with prices at really historic highs over the last few years. Corn prices should help feedlots increase the prices they pay for feeder animals and improve financial conditions since the last years corn price spike. The big question is will higher calf prices allow the market to move past the drought conditions in the western U.S. result in herd expansion. Then some lower prices can induce domestic demand.  Last week’s slaughter was down 5,000 head from a year ago and weights are down 1 pound from last year. Last week’s USDA supply/demand report disappointed the bull side. Expected reduced production over the next quarter was reduced to 10 million pounds from the 210 million that was expected based on the June report. Cattle has gone from a near historic contra-seasonal decline in production to a minor slip. In total 2013 production was revised lower by 100 million pounds. Cattle needs good domestic GDP and unemployment numbers to help prices sustain a rally. Higher fuel prices at the pump do not help as consumers can easily switch to lower cost meat as pump prices rise. October Cattle tends to hold the June Lows into August so expect a two way market for now.

Hogs; this year’s large corn crop should help pork producer turn to profit from the sharp losses last couple of years. The production effects from porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDv) is still unclear   the disease has almost run its course. Pork export data for January thru May are down almost 13% versus a year ago. Japan and Mexico have both cut back 5-6% from 2012 however, May export data was better versus a year ago for those regions. China and Russia have substantially cut purchases of U.S. pork in fact 78% of the total year to date decline is to those regions.  Year to date hog slaughter is essentially the same as 2012. The average barrow and gilt live weight in Iowa-Minnesota last week is up 3.9 pounds from a year ago. Selling October Futures on a rally into the end of the month usually tends to make money into the September period. While August Hogs tend to lean towards a firm end of July after weakness in early July, the 2- Day lean Hog Index as July goes off the board I supportive to the front end.  Traders should buy August on the open Monday for a move up and use a tight stop…

Additionally look to short October Hogs on a rally. Spreaders may want to consider Buying Feb and Oct and Selling December as a butterfly near 450 with a risk under 400 and a target on the position of 550 to 600, but that’s a complex trade and we will refrain from an outright recommendation. Normally December Hogs bear the brunt of down moves into autumn.

 

 

Softs 

Coffee continues to come under pressure as global supplies exceed demand. The best cure for low prices is low prices.  Sell a Rally if able and look for a trading affair. Brazilian ports resumed normal operations last week after a couple days of work stoppages, labor unrest in Brazil and the weak state of its investment markets could lead to supply disruptions this autumn and provide support for coffee. Most Brazilian coffee growing region temperatures remain well above frost levels. We are not looking for much delay in harvest as it should move along under dry conditions.
Cocoa tends to rally into early July and then has a sloppy period. Look for a trading affair to ensue. Improving global demand has allowed September cocoa firm, into the first half of July. The weak Cable has been a problem for cocoa prices, as the weak cable soften ICE cocoa versus the LIFFE Cocoa. Quarterly cocoa grinding numbers will show up next week. Europe’s 2nd quarter numbers are expected to be somewhere between 5 to 10% higher than last year’s grindings. Ivory Coast arrivals have been ahead of last year’s levels during the mid-crop harvest period that started in April.

Typically Sugar firms a bit into early July and that’s not happening, the post July period into October is typically negative for Sugar prices. Look for a two way market until the end of July and absent the world refining sugar for use as fuel or encouraging everyone to eat candy traders can sell a rally later this month. Supplies are still large and continue to overhang the market and rising Chinese sugar production aided last week’s decline.  Aggressive traders can buy for a bounce but use low risk stops.

Cotton tends to have a sloppy July, but it does not act bad and is higher on the year and is one of the few commodities to display that action.  That said a sloppy July has been aided by export data that has left the demand side languishing. Last week’s USDA report was deemed bearish as planted acreage increased to 10.25 million acres and the 2013/14 carryout guess is now 2.9 million bales, up from 2.6

million in the June USDA report. World carryout rose to 94.34 million bales, a new record high and the growing region in west TX has received rain.

Traders should stay tuned for flashes and updates for all markets..

 

Onto the Nitty Gritty

 

 

 

                                THE SENSATIONAL STOCK AND BOND MARKET
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE

Support should appear near 15,350.00 to 15,290.00 and 15,125.0. Below that buyers should appear near 14,960.00 to 14,840.00 and contain a decline.

Resistance should appear near 15,520.00 and the 15,690.00 to 15,760.00.

SEPTEMEBER E-MINI SP500

Resistance should appear near 1671.50 and the 1689.00 to 1696.00 region.
Support should appear near 1655 to 1642 and 1628.50.. Traders can buy at 1629.00 for a bounce and stay tuned for a stop.

NASDAQ COMPOSITE

Resistance should appear near the 3613.00 to 3623.00 and the 3663.00 to 3682.00 region.
Beyond that a test of 3734.00 to 3743 is likely.

Support should appear near 3563.00 to 3553.00 and 3503 to 3493. Which should contain a decline,
below that buyers should appear near 3443.00 to 3425.00

SEPTEMBER E-MINI NASDAQ 100

Support should appear near 3045.00 to 3036.00 and 2990 to 2972.00. Below that buyers should appear near 2937 to 2928.. Traders can buy at 2955 and risk a close under 2927 for three days in a row.

Resistance should appear near 3092.00 to 3102.00 and the 3148.00 to 3157.00 region. Where sellers should appear and cap a rally.

SEPTEMBER E-MINI RUSSELL 2000

Nearby resistance should appear at 1036.00 then 1047.00 and 1058.00 to 1068.00 region which should cap a rally for now. Aggressive Traders can sell at 1031.50 or better and stay tuned for a stop.

Support should appear near 1032.00 and 1023.70. A close under is negative and augurs for a test of and 1013.60 to 1010.40. Below that buyers should appear near 993.70 to 992.10 and the 983.70 to 982.10 region. Below that support should surface near 973.70 to 970.60.. Traders can buy at 974.00 and initially risk a close under 970.50 for three days in a row

SEPTEMBER 30 YR BOND

Resistance should appear near 134-07 and 134-21.Beyond that sellers should appear near
135-07 and 136-21. Above that sellers should appear near 137-07 and 137-21 Traders can sell at
137-05 and risk a close over 137-22 for three days in a row.
Support should appear near 133-21 and 133-07. Below that a test of 132-21 and 131-07 is likely.
Under that support should appear near 129-21 and 128-07.

Stay tuned for Flashes

SEPTEMBER 10 YR NOTE

Resistance should appear near 127-07 and 127-21. Beyond that sellers should appear near 128-21 and 129-07 which should cap a rally. Above that resistance is near 129-21 and 130-07

Support should appear near 125-21 and 125-07, below that supports should appear near 124-21.

          

                                                    THE FRENZIED FOREX FRONT

SEPT DOLLAR INDEX

Resistance should appear near 8391 to 8406, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 8484 to 8499. Beyond that a trade towards 8560 to 8589 is likely.

Support should appear near 8300 and the 8223 to 8194 region. Below that buyers should appear near the 8134 to 8119 and the 8044 to 8029 region, which should contain a decline.

SEPT JAPANESE YEN

Resistance should appear near 10104 to 10136 and 10237. Beyond that sellers should appear near 10320 to 10360 should cap a rally. Traders can sell at 10312 for a quick trade and risk a close over 10367 for three days in a row.

Support should appear near 10037 to 10021 which should hold for now. Below that buyers should appear near 9937 to 9921 and the 9837 to 9821 region.

SEPT EURO CURRENCY

Support should appear near 13040 then 12890 and the12740 to 12680 region.  A close and sustained level under is negative and augurs for a test of 12380 to 12320 which should contain a decline.

Nearby resistance should appear near 13100 and 13220. Beyond that sellers should appear near 13340 to 13460 and should cap rallies going forward.

.

SEPT SWISS FRANC

Resistance should appear near 10680 then 10815 and the 10960 to 11010 region.

Support should appear near 10530 and 10470. Below that 10360 to 10320 should hold.

 

SEPT BRITISH POUND

Support should appear near 15042. Aggressive Traders can buy at 15047 for a bounce and hold for higher prices below that the 14960 to 14840 region should hold.

Resistance should appear near 15125 and the 15290 to 15350.  Traders can sell at 15282 and risk a close over 15367 for three days in a row. Above that sellers should appear near 15525 and cap a rally.

 

SEPT CANADIAN DOLLAR

Resistance should appear near the 9625 to 9641 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 9706 to 9737. Traders can sell at 9705 and risk a close over 9747 for three days in a row. Beyond that sellers should be plentiful near 9821 to 9837.

Support should appear near 9546 to 9526 and the 9445 to 9439 region. A close under is negative and augurs for a test of the 9347 to 9316 region which should contain a decline. However failure to hold is negative and indicates an eventual test of 9156 to 9140 and lower.

SEPTEMBER AUSSIE DOLLAR

Support should appear near 8964 to 8934 and the 8871 to 8856 region. Below that a trade towards 8777 to 8762 is likely. Below that buyers should appear near 8683 to 8668.
Resistance should appear near 9140 to 9156 and the 9316 to 9347 region. Traders can sell at 9312 and hold for lower prices.

 

Due to the wide ranges traders should stay tuned for additional Forex Flashes

 

 

 

 

                                                  

                                          

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                              THE PRECIOUS METALS

AUGUST GOLD

Resistance should appear near 1304.00 to 1310.00 and the 1334 to 1346 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 1377 to 1383 and cap a rally.

Support is near 1274 to 1268 and the 1238 to 1232 region. Below that buyers should appear near
1203 to 1192 and the 1169 to 1164 region. Traders can buy at 1172 and risk a close under 1163 for three days in a row and stay tuned for updates.

SEPTEMBER COPPER
Resistance should appear near the 32610 to 32700 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near
33190 to 33280 and the 33770 to 33880 region and cap a rally. Traders can sell at 33750 and risk a close over 33950 for three days in a row.

Support should appear near 31480 and 31020 to 30920. Below that buyers should appear near 30450 to 30360 and should contain a decline, failure there augurs for a test of 29900 to 29720 and the 29370 to 29280 region. .

SEPTEMBER SILVER

Resistance should appear near 2034 to 2042 and 2080 to 2089. Beyond that sellers should appear near 2126 to 2134.

Support is at the 1953 to 1946 region. Below that buyers should appear near 1909 to 1902 and the 1865 to 1858 region. Under that 1822 to 1808 should hold for now.                                                                  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                                     THE EXCITING ENERGIES

 

SEPT CRUDE OIL

Resistance should appear near 10580 to 10680 and 10815. A close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 10960 to 11010. Beyond that a trade towards 11300 to 11360 is likely

Support should appear near 10360 to 10320 and 10136 to 10104 region. Below that buyers should appear near 9937 to 9921 and contain a decline.

SEPT HEATING OIL

Support should appear near should appear near 29900 to 29720 and the 29370 to 29280 region. Below that 28830 to 28740 should hold.
Resistance should appear 30920 to 31020 and the 31480 to 31570 region. Beyond that a test 31940 to 32130 is likely.

SEPT UNLEADED GAS

Support should appear near 30360 and 29900 to 29720. Below that buyers should appear near 29370 to 29280 and contain a decline.

Resistance should appear near 30920 to 31020 and 31940 to 32130. Beyond that sellers should appear near 32610 to 32700.

SEPT NATURAL GAS

Resistance should appear at 3734 to 3743 , beyond that a test of 4046 to 4056 is likely.

Support should appear near 3563 to 3553 and the 3443 to 3425 region. Below that buyers should appear near 3270 to 32610 and contain a decline.

                               

 

 

 

                                                   THE GRANDE’ GRAINS

AUGUST SOYBEANS

Support should appear near 1421 to 1415 and 1399. Below that buyers should appear
near the 1383 to 1377 region and contain a decline.

Resistance should appear near 1453 to 1459 and the 1484 to 1496 region.

NOVEMBER SOYBEANS

Support should appear near 1253 and the 1238 to 1232 region.

Resistance should appear near 1268 to 1274 and the 1304 to 1310 region. Traders can sell at 1303 and risk a close over 1311 for three days in a row.

AUGUST SOYOIL

Resistance should appear near 4695 to 4717 and the 4775 to 4785 region.  Traders can sell at 4690 and risk a close over 4727 for three days in a row.
Support should appear near 4582 to 4571 and the 4515 to 4503 region.

AUGUST SOYMEAL

Resistance should appear near 450.3 to 451.4 and the 463.9 to 465.0 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 477.5 to 478.5 and cap a rally.

Support should appear near 442.5 and 438.1 to 437.0. Below that a test of 418.3 to 416.3 is likely.

 

SEPT CORN

Support should appear 535 ¾ to 534 ½ and the 514 to 512 ¾ region.
Resistance should appear near 555 ¼ to 557 ¾ and 564 to 565 ¼

DEC CORN

Support should appear near 506 ¾ to 505 ¾ and the 499 ½ to 497 ¼ region.

Resistance should appear near 512 3/43 to 513 ¾ and 534 ½ to 535 ¾

 

 

 

 

SEPT WHEAT

Resistance should appear near 683 ¾, beyond that a test of 690 ¾ to 691 ¾ and 707 ½ to 708 ¾ is likely.  Support should appear near 675 ½ to 674 ¾ and 667 ¼ to 665 ¾ .Traders can buy at 668 and hold for higher prices.  Traders should go long if a close over 683 ¾ occurs.

                                                           THE LIVELY LIVESTOCK

AUGUST CATTLE

Support should appear near 12172 and the 12030 to 11920 region.  Traders can buy at 12037 for a bounce and risk a close under 11917 for three days in a row.
Resistance should appear near the 12320 to 12380 region.  Traders can sell at 12317 and risk a close over 12387 for three days in a row.

 

OCTOBER CATTLE

Support should appear near 12537 and 12447. Below that a test of 12380 to 12320 is likely and should hold.. Traders can buy at 12387 and risk a close under 12317 for three days in a row. .
Resistance should appear near the 12680 to 12740 and 12817. Beyond that sellers should appear near 13040 to 13100. Traders can sell at 13037 and risk a close over 13107 for three days in a row.

AUGUST HOGS

Support should appear near 9447 to 9427. Below that buyers should appear near 9347 to 9317.
Resistance should appear near 9527 to 9542. Beyond that a test of 9622 to 9642 and the 9707 to 9737 region is likely.

OCTOBER HOGS
Support should appear near the 8317 to 8302 region. Below that buyers should appear near 8222 to 8192.
Resistance should appear near 8482 to 8502. Beyond that sellers should appear near 8557 to 8587 and the 8667 to 8682 region. Traders can sell at 8662 and risk a close over 8782 for three days in a row.

         

                  

 

                                                    THE SATISFYING SOFTS

 

SEPT COFFEE

Support should appear near 11920.. Below that a test of 11690 to 11640 is likely. Failure there augurs for a test of 11360 to 11300 and the 111010 to 10960 region.
Resistance should appear near 12320 to 12380 and the 12680 to 12740 region. BW Traders can sell at 12315 and risk a close over 12530 for three days in a row.

SEPT COCOA

Resistance should appear near 2315 to 2322, traders can sell at 2312 and hold for lower prices. Beyond that sellers should appear near 2354 to 2370 and the 2411 to 2419 region.

Support should appear near 2226 to 2219, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 2185 to 2170 and eventually the 2089 to 2080 region.

OCT SUGAR

Resistance is near 1609 to 1615 and the 1642 to 1655 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 1689 to 1696 and the 1731 to 1738 region. Above that sellers should appear near 1774 to 1780. Traders can sell at 1773 and hold for lower prices.
Support should appear near 1576 to 1569 and the 1535 to 1529 region. Below that a test of 1496 to 1484 is likely.

DEC COTTON

Support should appear near 8406 to 8391 and 8314 to 8300. Below that a test of 8044 to 8029 is likely and should hold. Traders can buy at 8045 and risk a close under 7935 for three days in a row.
Resistance is 8560 to 8589 and 8668 to 8683. Traders can sell at 8665 and hold for lower prices.
Beyond that sellers should appear near 8762 to 8777 and cap a rally.

Stay tuned for Flashes and Updates in all Markets

 

–A Ship in Harbor is Safe…But that is not what ships are built for –

Happy Trading!

Bill wil@futurescom.com

Sunday July 14, 2013 1:30 PM South Florida Beach Time
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