FuturesCom Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook # 459 Saturday October 18, 2014. SP500 and Equity Indices • Bonds • Currency Trading • Forex • Precious Metals • Energy • Grains • Livestock • Coffee • Sugar • Cocoa • Cotton. Free Two Week Trial see https://futurescom.com/free-trial-2
“Perfection is not attainable, but if we chase perfection we can catch excellence.”- Vince Lombardi
Friday October 17, 2014
5:00 AM, South Florida Beach Time
Traders should stay nimble and stay tuned for flashes in all markets.
Geopolitical tensions and volatility are elevated. Investors and traders should continue to hear constant babble from a variety of government leaders, finance representatives and now medical officials, all of whom are in finger pointing mode and the blood has yet to run. Needless to say, the best thing to do now is probably have some bleach on hand before it runs out… U.S Stock Indices are mixed on the year. Interest rates remain at or near zero. Long term support for the Dow Jones Industrial Average remains below the recent trading ranges, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is lower on the year and the Nasdaq is higher on the year, all this depends on which way the wind blows. The Russell 2000 acts sloppy and is lower on the year. The Dow Jones Transportation Index acts ok, is higher on the year and volatility has increased. Global markets are weak. The U.K FTSE 100, Japan Nikkei, and German Dax are all lower on the year and the monthly charts are rolling over including the Russell 2000. This could last for a while and rallies can occur while this is going on. All the while QE lingers and now expectations for QE4 are being contemplated. Just over the last week or so the President of the NY Fed Dudley was quoted on a radio program that he wanted to let the ‘Hot Money run around a while longer”. Apparently it ran the wrong way for a bit…
The yearly work remains positive for the Dow and SP500, support remains well below the market. During the cozy Bull markets of the post 1987 era, seasonally the weakest time of the year for the Indices was the period we are in now. Typically, the lows in September and October were not lower than the May lows, in many Indices they are. When this occurs, the market is telling us things. Taking a step further, late October ranges tended to stay above the September highs. They are not. Typically the Dow Jones and Nasdaq begin to firm after next week for the holiday trade into Thanksgiving.
Traders should take note of that and continue to use the volatility to trade the markets.
Forex Markets; The euro remains lower on the year. Longer term downside targets are still below the current levels and it has rallied. Cable is lower on the year and acts lousy and range bound. The USD/CAD pushed through the resistance. Over the longer term, USD/CAD targets are higher. Dollar-Yen is trading in the 10680 to 10580 region, below that support is near 10360 to 10320trading ranges in Forex have increased. The Aussie and Kiwi downside targets are lower. The Kiwi and Aussie dollar are mixed on the year. Both are trading affairs now, sell rallies.
Japanese stock markets are lower on the year and rates remain at essentially zero as QE for this decade now appears to be futile, the weak Yen is not helping as much as the BOJ would like. China growth remains sloppy. Increased tensions in that region remain unfavorable for companies doing business and it appear to be getting worse. Stock market supporting measures from governments in that region should be forthcoming however the broader picture appears to be eroding.
Analysis for overseas equity and foreign exchange markets are available upon request. For more detailed information or a country by county economic analysis for trading or hedging programs please call or email a request.
Precious Metals and Energy; Gold and Silver remain weak longer term and have bounced a bit.
Nothing has changed. Silver typically makes a low in November. Gold is a trading affair and can firm a bit as it stays in its trading range. Copper is still range bound, sloppy and breaking down. The December Copper contract low made in March is just under the current prices. WTI Crude Oil, Brent Crude and the products are all breaking down, have bounced a bit and are trading affairs. Unleaded Gas has years of price on top of the market and is now weak. Heating Oil typically is soft until month end. Economic benefits of lower gas prices are now being touted, by wall street economists. A month or so ago they wanted to see gas and oil prices rise …
Even lower prices will be better at this point for the consumer. Natural Gas prices are still somewhat range bound and remain soft. Grain supplies remain ample. Most traders are looking for a rally in beans for a seasonal trade into the first week of November. However how much is the question, supplies are ample. Lower prices for soybeans into the end of the year is possible. Consider soybeans a trading affair, our longer term targets are lower than the lows we have thus far seen. Wheat acts better than it has, traders should expect a more range bound market now. Lower prices that are likely in front of the wheat market not behind it. Typically wheat rises into October and November. That type of action is evident in wheat however it’s not really impressive. Corn reached nearby downside targets and bounced to the upside and remains a trading affair at best. Livestock markets are a day to day trading affair. Typically July hogs acts better this time of year, however they are a trading affair, stay tuned for flashes for all contract months in hogs. Coffee rallied and acts better and typically firms in November / December but is pricey. Sugar remains a trading affair and typically declines late October thru late November. Cotton is bouncing around and acts sloppy. The Cocoa supply demand outlook has likely turned. The long term upside targets in Cocoa have been met. Cocoa is a trading affair now and remains subject to Ebola concerns along with a whole slew of other markets.
On to the Nitty Gritty…
THE SENSATIONAL STOCK AND BOND MARKET
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE
Support is near 15,760.00 to 15,690.00 and the 15,350.00 to 15,290.00 region
Resistance is at 16,420.00 to 16,550.00 and the 16,890.00 to 16,960.00 region.
DOW JONES TRANSPORTS
Support should appear near 7777.00 to 7763.00 and 7513.00 to 7487.00
Resistance is at 8300.00 to 8314.00 and the 8484.00 to 8499.00 region.
DECEMBER E-MINI SP500
Resistance should appear near 1902.00 to 1909.00 and should cap an early rally. Beyond that sellers should appear near 1946.00 to 1953.00. Trade Accordingly
Nearby support should appear near 1865.00 to 1868.00 and 1822.00 to 1808.00, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 1780.00 to 1774.00. Below that buyers should appear near 1738.00 to 1721.00. Traders can buy at 1741 for a bounce and hold for higher prices and risk a close under 1735 for three days in a row.
NASDAQ COMPOSITE
Resistance should appear at 4304.00 to 4315.00. Beyond that sellers should appear near 4370.00 to 4381.00 and the 4425.00 to 4446.00 region.
Support should appear near 4183.00 to 4163.00 then 4056.00 to 4044.00 and the 3929.00 to 3909.00 region.
DECEMBER E-MINI NASDAQ 100
Support should appear near 3743.00 to 3734.00 then 3682.00 to 3663.00.. Under that a test of 3623.00 to 3613.00 is likely and should hold for a bit.
Resistance is at 3858.00 to 3867.00. Beyond that sellers should appear near 3909.00 to 3929 and the 3982.00 to 3992.00 region.
DECEMBER E-MINI RUSSELL 2000
Resistance should appear near 1096.00 to 1101.00. Beyond that sellers should appear near 1115.50 and the 1130.00 to 1136.00 region.
Support should appear near 1036.00 to 1032.00 and the 1013.60 to 1010.40 region. Below that buyers should appear near 1003.70 to 1002.10 where buyers should appear and contain a decline.
DECEMBER 30 YR BONDS
Resistance should appear near 144-21 then 145-07 and 146-21. Beyond that a test of 147-07 and
147-21 is likely.
Support should appear near 141-18. Below that buyers should appear near 140-17 and 139-21.
DECEMBER 10 YR NOTE
Resistance should appear near 129-17 then 130-21 and 131-21
Support should appear near 126-07, below that buyers should appear near 125-21..
THE FRENZIED FOREX FRONT
DECEMBER DOLLAR INDEX
Resistance should appear near 8560 to 8589 and 8668 to 8683
Support should appear near 8499 to 8484 and 8406 to 8391
DECEMBER JAPANESE YEN
Resistance should appear near 9706 to 9737. Traders can sell at 9702 and risk a close over 9747 for three days in a row.
Support should appear near 9347 to 9316 and the 9156 to 9140 region.
DECEMBER EURO CURRENCY
Support should appear near 12740 to 12680 then 12530 and the 12380 to 12320 region.
Resistance should appear near 12890 and the 13040 to 13100 region
DECEMBER SWISS FRANC
Resistance should appear near 10630 to 10680 and 10752. Beyond that sellers should appear near
10960 to 11010
Support should appear near 10470.. Below that a test of 10360 to 10320 is likely.
DECEMBER BRITISH POUND
Support should appear near 15760 to 15690
Resistance should appear near 16090 to 16150. Traders can sell at 16267 and hold for lower prices.
DECEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
Resistance should appear near 8871 then 8934 to 8964 and 9044 to 9060.
Traders can sell at 8933 and hold for lower prices.
Support should appear near 8777 to 8762, below that a test of 8683 to 8668 is likely
DECEMBER AUSSIE DOLLAR
Support should appear near 8683 to 8668, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 8589 to 8560 and likely the 8314 to 8300 region.
Resistance should appear near 8762 to 8777 then 8856 to 8871 and the 8934 to 8964 region.
THE PRECIOUS METALS
DECEMBER GOLD
Resistance should appear near 1253.0 and 1268.0 to 1274.0
Support should appear near 1232.0 and 1203.0 to 1192.0
DECEMBER COPPER
Resistance should appear near 30360 to 30450 and the 30920 to 31020 region.
Support should appear near 29370 to 29280, below that a test of 28830 to 28740 is likely.
DECEMBER SILVER
Support should appear near 1696.00 to 1689.0, below that a test of 1655.0 to 1642.0 is likely.
Resistance is at 1731.0 to 1738.0 then 1774.0 to 1780.0 and 1808.0 to 1822.0
THE EXCITING ENERGIES
DECEMBER CRUDE OIL
Support should appear near 8044 to 8029 then 7954 to 7939 and 7864 to 7836
Resistance should appear near 8300 to 8314 and 8391 to 8406. Beyond that sellers should appear near 8484 to 8499 and 8668 to 8683. Traders can sell at 8482 and hold for lower prices.
DECEMBER BRENT CRUDE OIL
Resistance should appear near 8668 to 8683 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 8934 to 8964 and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 8314 to 8300 and 8044 to 8029.
DECEMBER HEATING OIL
Support should appear near 24190 to 24110, a close under augurs for a trade toward of 23700 to 23540. Below that a test of 22750 to 22670 is likely.
Resistance should appear 25110 to 25190. Traders can sell at 25100 and hold for lower prices.
Beyond that sellers should appear near 25520 to 25680 and 26120 to 26200.
DECEMBER UNLEADED GAS
Support should appear 20890 to 20800 and 19960 to 19820
Resistance should appear near 22190 to 22260 and the 23150 to 23220
DECEMBER NATURAL GAS
Resistance should appear 3.909 to 3.939 and 4.046 to 4.056. Beyond that sellers should appear near
4.110 to 4.120 and cap a rally
Support should appear near 3.682 to 3.663 and 3.553 to 3.563. Below that buyers should appear near
3.386 to 3.377 and contain a decline.
THE GRANDE’ GRAINS
JANUARY SOYBEANS
Support should appear near 934 ¾ to 931 ¾ and 915 ¾ to 914. Below that buyers should appear near
906 to 904 ¼
Resistance should appear near 970 ¾ to 973 ¾ and 982 ¼ to 983 ¾ beyond that sellers should appear near 1002 ¼ to 1003 ¼.
DECEMBER SOYOIL
Support should appear near 3194 and 3157 to 3148, below that a test of 3102 to 3092 is likely
Resistance should appear near 3261 to 3270 then 3319 to 3328 and the 3377 to 3386 region, where sellers should appear and cap a rally.
DECEMBER SOYMEAL
Resistance should appear near 331.9 to 332.8 and the 349.3 to 350.3..Beyond that sellers should appear near 355.3 to 356.3
Support should appear near 310.2 to 309.2 and 299.0 to 297.2 .. Below that a test of 278.5 to 277.5 is likely.
DECEMBER CORN
Support should appear near 338 ¾ to 337 ¾ and 321 ¼ to 319 ¼. Below that a test of 310 ¼ to 309 ¼ is likely.
Resistance should appear near 361 ¼ to 362 ¼ and 366 ¼ to 368 ¼ Traders can sell at 365 and hold for lower prices. Risk a close over 374 ¾ for three days in a row.
DECEMBER WHEAT
Support should appear near 499 ½ to 497 ¼ then 485 ¾ to 484 ½ and 478 ½ to 477 ¼
Resistance should appear near 520 to 521 ¼, beyond that sellers should appear near 549 ¼ to 550 ½ and should cap a rally.
THE LIVELY LIVESTOCK
DECEMBER CATTLE
Support should appear near 16150 to 16090 and the 15760 to 15690 region.
Resistance should appear near 16890 to 16960 and the 17310 to 17380 region.
FEBRUARY CATTLE
Support should appear near 16150 to 16090 and 15760 to 15690
Resistance should appear near 16420 to 16550 and the 16890 to 16960 region.
DECEMBER HOGS
Support should appear near 8682 to 8667 and the 8592 to 8562 region
Resistance should appear near 9027 to 9042 then 9137 to 9162 and the 9327 to 9347 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 9422 to 9442. Traders can sell at 9422 and hold for lower prices.
FEBRUARY HOGS
Support should appear near 8317 to 8300 and the 8047 to 8022 region.
Resistance should appear near 9042 to 9062 and 9137 to 9157. Traders can sell at 9037 and risk a close over 9162 for three days in a row.
APRIL HOGS
Support should appear near 8317 to 8302 and the 8057 to 8027 region.
Resistance should appear near 9042 to 9062 and the 9137 to 9157 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 9312 to 9347 and cap a rally.
THE SATISFYING SOFTS
DECEMBER COFFEE
Resistance should appear near 22190 to 22260 and 22670 to 22750
Support should appear near 20890 to 20800. Below that buyers should appear near 19530 to 19460
DECEMBER COCOA
Resistance should appear near 3194 to 3123 and the 3319 to 3326 region. Traders can sell at 3312 and risk a close over 3342 for three days in a row.
Support should appear near 3045 to 3036.. Below that a test of 2937 to 2928 is likely
MARCH SUGAR
Resistance is near 1689 to 1696 and 1731 to 1738. Traders can sell at 1688 and hold for lower prices
risk a close over 1742 for three days in a row.
Support should appear near 1615 to 1609 then 1576 to 1569.. Below that a test of 1535 to 1529 is likely.
DECEMBER COTTON
Support should appear near 6190 to 6165.. Below that a test of 6035 to 6023 is likely.
Resistance is at 6577 to 6591 and 6659 to 6673. Beyond that sellers should appear near
6809 to 6836 and cap a rally.
Stay tuned for Flashes and Updates in all Markets
–A Ship in Harbor is Safe…But that is not what ships are built for –
Happy Trading!
Bill wil@futurescom.com
Friday October 17, 2014 4:15 PM South Florida Beach Time
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