Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook # 465 January 10, 2015 Equity Indices – Treasuries – Forex – Currency Trading with Precious Metals – Energy – Grains – Livestock – Coffee – Sugar- Cocoa – Cotton

Jan 112015
 

FuturesCom  Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook # 465  Saturday January 10, 2015.  SP500 and  Equity Indices • Bonds • Currency Trading • Forex • Precious Metals • Energy • Grains • Livestock • Coffee •  Sugar • Cocoa  • Cotton.  Free Two Week Trial see https://futurescom.com/free-trial-2

Saturday January 10, 2015

3:00 AM, South Florida Beach Time

 Traders should continue to stay nimble and stay tuned for flashes and updates for all markets.

k3691232U.S Stock Indices opened the year with some volatility and there is still a zero interest rate environment. Seasonally the Nasdaq tends to dip into the end of January. There is a lot of noise and babble coming from a lot of corners and that is likely to continue for the foreseeable future. The yearly work remains positive. The major support is well below prevailing stock market levels. Geopolitical tensions will likely increase over the next month. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, Russell 2000 and the Dow Transports are all slightly down on the year. Digressing here for a little bit the amount of ‘boon’ to the U.S consumer that economists are extrapolating from cheap energy prices would only be realized over a year or longer if energy stays flat to down. I only wish that the same enthusiasm that policymakers and wall-street are having for lower energy costs this time was seen on the other side of the coin when energy prices were high. Wage growth in the latest jobs report was lousy and wage growth needs to improve. Initially the impact on earnings of corporations is a negative, long run it’s a positive for everyone.

Forex Markets; the Euro long term downside targets remain below the current trading ranges and levels. The Euro is near the 11690 to 11640 level and there lies the nearby support. Traders should Sell Swiss Franc Futures (Buy USD/CHF) and Euro and be short, look to sell a mid- month rally in a bear market. That said , traders should not expect help from the U.S Federal Reserve with rate moves anytime soon. While many economists and banks are making ‘new updates’ and estimates for when the Fed will finally have the ‘lift-off’, so far no cigar. Those efforts have been futile and the time frames keep getting updated and pushed farther out (it’s becoming comical). By some measures global debt, (this includes corporate and government debt) is 20% above the levels seen in 2007. Interest rates are at or near zero when that environment changes, it changes… Cable downside support is now 14960 to 14840, below that a test of the 14590 to 14530 region is likely. Resistance is above the market at 15690 to 15760. Middle of the road selling should occur near 15290 to 15350. The FTSE 100 work has rolled over on the medium to long term time frame, we mentioned this a month or two ago and nothing has changed. Germany’s DAX is back and forth and is showing volatility. Francis CAC 40 is in danger of rolling back over to the downside. The USD/CAD (Canadian Dollar Futures targets are lower) longer term targets remain higher however it can stall here at 11920 to 12030… Dollar-Yen is trading lower on the year. Look for USD/JPY to move back to a higher on the year level into the end of January. On the downside support is at 11805 and the 11690 to 11640 region. The nearby target on top is now 12320 to 12380 with higher tests down the road. Nearby Resistance is at 11920 to 12030. In this writers opinion Japanese policy makers are running out of time and fast. Demographically, 2 % inflation is not doing to do the trick. The Japanese Nikkei 225 is down on the year. Dollar Yen typically rises into the end of the year. Traders should consider Yen a trading affair. Look to get long USD/JPY during a dip (Sell Yen futures on a rally). The Aussie and Kiwi longer term downside targets remain lower. Both the Kiwi and Aussie dollar are trading both sides of year end closes. Sell Rallies.

 

Please note; Analysis for overseas equity and foreign exchange markets are available upon request. For more detailed information or a country by county economic analysis for trading or hedging programs please call or email a request.

 

Precious Metals and Energy; Gold and Silver remain weak longer term, nothing has changed.

Gold remains range bound and the best time to own gold for trading purposes is around now thru February and it is a trading affair at best. Copper remains weak and is below the lows of the past several years. Copper does tend to firm up a bit until early February, traders should take note of that. Silver is trading affair. The metals have room on the downside and upside and the trends are down.   WTI Crude Oil, Brent Crude and the products all accelerated to the downside. Heating Oil, Unleaded Gas and Natural Gas have years of price on top of the market and remain weak. Weather is looking favorable for increased use for energy however, Natural Gas has left the region on top and is now probing long term prices not seen for a while and accelerating and Heating Oil typically moves lower into the end of January. Sell a rally for a trade. Unleaded gas tends to hold now. If Unleaded dips to 1.0140 traders should look to see if it holds for a buy, but that is a distance away. However if that is where heating oil is going we will likely short it. Grains are trading affairs and the USDA report on Monday January 12th will likely come with wide ranges and plenty of volatility. Generally traders should look to sell a rally in Soybeans in January advance of some possible weakness into February, then see how things develop at that point. Typically buying Soybeans in mid-February is a trade to consider.

Wheat has set back, record world Wheat supplies are likely just over the horizon and now demand is waning for U.S Wheat. Sell a mid-month rally. Corn was acting better, now it’s not. Farmer selling should increase and many producers are happy to see Corn at 4.00 to 4.25. Demand was poor in this week’s export data. Exports to China may improve if they increase their imports of US genetically modified corn. Livestock is trading weak, live cattle futures fell hard on Thursday and Friday. Higher beef prices and the tight cattle supply can be supportive on declines. However long liquidation and now a lower on the year level along with some expected seasonal selling that lasts from now until late January can cause a lot of price movement. Consider the livestock markets a trading affair, and stay tuned for livestock flashes and updates. Hogs are a mess and a trading affair. Sell rallies in April Hogs. July hogs typically firm up from late January until mid-march and June may hold this region also. Buying June Hogs and or July Hogs and Selling April Hogs tends to work for trading purposes.

Traders should buy June and Sell July on the open Monday. Stay tuned for livestock flashes.

Coffee rallied on drought worries in Brazil. Secondary southern hemisphere coffee producing countries are trying to ramp up production. Sugar bounced is still near contract lows. Soft global demand and weak energy are likely to continue to pressure sugar. Cotton continues to bounce around. Long term nothing has changed. Cocoa is up on the year. The 4th Quarter Cocoa grinding report will be released on January 15.   On to the Nitty Gritty.

 

                                   THE SENSATIONAL STOCK AND BOND MARKET

 

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE

Support is near 17,740.00 and 17,380.00 to 17,310.00. Below that buyers should appear near the 16,960.00 to 16,890.00 region and contain a decline.

Resistance is at 18,080.00 to 18,220.00. Beyond that sellers should appear near the 18,580.00 to 18,650.00 region and cap a rally.

 

DOW JONES TRANSPORTS

Support should appear near 8777.00 to 8762.00 and the 8683.00 to 8668.00 region. Below that buyers should appear near 8589.00 to 8560.00 and contain a decline.

Resistance is at 8934.00 to 8964.00 and the 9044.00 to 9060.00 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near the 9,316.00 to 9,347.00 region and cap a rally.

 

MARCH E-MINI SP500

Nearby Resistance is at 2042.00 and 2061.50, a close over is friendly. Beyond that sellers should appear near 2080.00 to 2089.00 and the 2126.00 to 2134.00 region, and cap a rally

Support should appear near 2034.00, an extended trade below or close under is negative and augurs for a test of 2015.00 and likely the 1996.00 to 1982.00 region. Under that buyers should appear near the 1953.00 to 1946.00 and contain a decline. Traders with ice water running their veins can buy at 1953.50 and risk 10 points.

 

NASDAQ COMPOSITE

Resistance should appear at 4775.00 to 4785.00 and the 4845.00 to 4856.00 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 4915.00 to 4926.00 and the 4973.00 to 4995.00 region and cap a rally.

Support should appear near 4650.00 to 4639.00. Below that buyers should appear near the 4582.00 to 4571.00 region. Failure there augurs for a test of 4514.00 to 4503.00 which should contain a decline.

MARCH E-MINI NASDAQ 100

Support should appear near 4183.00 to 4163.00, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 4120.00 to 4110.00 and eventually the 4056.00 to 4046.00 region.

Resistance is at 4238 to 4249 and the 4304 to 4315 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 4370.00 to 4381.00 and the 4425.00 to 4446.00 region and cap a rally. Pick your poison.

 

MARCH E-MINI RUSSELL 2000

Resistance should appear near 1192.00 to 1203.00. Beyond that sellers should appear near 1232.00 to 1238.00 and the 12687.00 to 1274.00 region.

Support should appear near 1169.00 to 1164.00, below that a test of 1150.00 is likely. A close under is negative and augurs for a test of 1136.00 to 1130.00

 

MARCH 30 YR BONDS

Resistance should appear near 148- 22 and 149- 07. Beyond at sellers should appear at 150-07

and cap a rally.

Support should appear near 146-21 and 145-22. Below that a test of 145-07 is likely. Under that buyers should appear 144-22 and contain a decline.

 

MARCH 10 YR NOTE

Resistance should appear near 129-21 and 130-07. Beyond that sellers should appear near 130-21 and 131-06 and cap a rally.

Support should appear near 127-22 and 126-17. Below that a test of 125-07 is likely.                                                

 

  

                                             THE FRENZIED FOREX FRONT

 

MARCH DOLLAR INDEX

Resistance should appear near the 9316 to 9347 region. A close over or extended trade above is friendly augurs for a test of 9429 to 9445 and eventually the 9706 and 9737 region, down the road.

Support should appear near 9156 to 9140 and 9060 to 9044. Where buyers should step in and contain a decline.

 

MARCH JAPANESE YEN

Resistance should appear near 8484 to 8499 and the 8560 to 8589 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 8668 to 8683 and cap a rally.

Support should appear near 8391, a close under or trade under is negative and augurs for a test of 8314 to 8300 and the 8223 to 8194 region.

 

MARCH EURO CURRENCY

Support should appear near the 11690 to 11640 region, failure there is negative and indicates an eventual test of the 11360 to 11300 region.

Resistance should appear near 11920 to 120030 and the 12320 to 12380 region.

Stay tuned for Flashes

 

MARCH SWISS FRANC

Resistance should appear near 9921 to 9937 and the 10021 to 10037 region.

Traders can sell at 10017 and hold for lower prices. Risk a close over 10051 for three days in a row.

Support should appear near 9837 to 9821, below that a test of 9737 to 9706 is likely, an extended trade under or close under is negative. Trade Accordingly

 

MARCH BRITISH POUND

Support should appear near the 14960 to 14840 region. Below that a test of 14590 to 1 4530 is likely.

Resistance should appear near 15290 to 15350 and 15690 to 15760. Traders can sell at 15517 and hold for lower prices.

 

MARCH CANADIAN DOLLAR

Resistance should appear near 8484 to 8499 and the 8560 to 8589 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 8668 to 8683.

Support should appear near 8406 to 8391, below that a test of 8314 8300 is likely, and should hold.

 

MARCH AUSSIE DOLLAR

Support should appear near 8044 to 8029 and the 7954 to 7939 region. Below that a test of 7777 to 7763 is likely.

Resistance should appear near 8194 to 8223 then 8300 to 8314 and 8391 to 8406.

Traders can sell at 8297 and risk a close over 8321 for three days in a row.

Stay tuned for Forex flashes and updates.                                                

 

                                                         THE PRECIOUS METALS

 

FEBRUARY GOLD

Resistance should appear near 1232.0 to 1238.0 and the 1268 to 1274 region.

Support should appear near 1203.0 to 1192.0 and 1180.50. Below that buyers should appear near

1169.00 to 1164.00.

MARCH COPPER

Resistance should appear near 27590 to 27750 and the 28200 to 28290 region, which should cap an early rally. Beyond that sellers should appear near 28740 to 28830.

Support should appear near the 26720 to 26630 and the 26200 to 26120 region, which should hold.

 

MARCH SILVER

Support should appear near 1576 to 1569 and the 1535 to 1529 region. Below that a test of 1496 to 1484 is likely.

Resistance is at 1642 to 1655 and the 1689 to 1696 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 1731 to 1738 and the 1774 to 1780 region..

 

 

                                               THE EXCITING ENERGIES

FEBRUARY CRUDE OIL

Support should appear near 4717 to 4695 and the 4514 to 4503 region. Below that a test of 4446 to 4425 is likely.

Resistance should appear near 4915 to 4926 then 4973 to 4995 and 5056 to 5067. Beyond that

sellers should appear near 5127 to 5139.

 

MARCH CRUDE OIL

Support should appear near 4856 to 4845 then 4717 to 4695 and the 4514 to 4503 region.

Resistance should appear near 4973 to 4995 and 5056 to 5067. Beyond that sellers should appear near the 5200 to 5211 region.

 

MARCH BRENT CRUDE OIL

Support should appear near 5067 to 5056 and the 4926 to 4915 region. Below that a test of 4856 to 4845 is likely.

Resistance should appear near 5259 to 5282 and 5344 to 5356, Beyond that sellers should appear near 5553 to 5577 and should cap a rally.

 

FEBRUARY HEATING OIL

Support should appear near 16960 to 16890 and 16550 to 16420, below that a test of 16150 to 16090 is likely

Resistance should appear 17310 to 17380 and 17740 to 17800. Traders can sell at 17730 and hold for lower prices.

 

FEBRUARY UNLEADED GAS

Support should appear 13100 to 13040 and the 12740 to 12680 region. Below that a test of 12320 to 12030 is likely and should hold.

Resistance should appear near 13340 to 13460 and 13770 to 13830. Beyond that sellers should appear near14150 to 14210 and the 14590 to 14650 region and cap a rally.

 

 

 

MARCH NATURAL GAS

Support should appear near 2.883 to 2.874 and 2.775 to 2.758. Below that a test of 2.672 to 2.663 is likely.

Resistance should appear near 2.972 to 2.990 and 3.036 to 3.043. Beyond that sellers should appear near 309.2. to 3102 and the 3.148 to 3.157 region. Stay Tuned for Energy Flashes

 

                                                 THE GRANDE’ GRAINS

 

MARCH SOYBEANS

Support should appear near 1047, a close under augurs for a test of 1036 to 1032. Below that a test of 1013 ¾ to 1010 ½ is likely.

Resistance should appear near the 1058 to 1068 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 1096 to 1101 and cap a rally.

 

MARCH SOYOIL

Support should appear near 3270 to 3261 and the 3213 to 3194 region. Below that a test of 3102 to 3092 is likely.

Resistance should appear near the 3377 to 3386 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 3425 to 3443 and the 3493 to 3503 region and cap a rally.

 

MARCH SOYMEAL

Resistance should appear near the 355.3 to 356.3 and the 366.3 to 368.2 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 3795 to 380.6 and cap a rally.

Support should appear near 344.3 to 342.5 and the 338.6 to 337.3 region. Below that a test of327.0 to 326.1 is likely and should hold.

 

MARCH CORN

Support should appear near 399 ¼ to 398 ¼ and the 386 ¾ to 385 ¾. Below that buyers should appear near 374 ¼ to 373 ¼ and contain a decline.

Resistance should appear near 411 to 412 and the 416 ¼ to 418 ¼ region. Beyond that sellers should appear near the 423 ¾ to 424 ¾ region.

 

MARCH WHEAT

Support should appear near 557 ¾ to 555 ¼ and the 550 ¼ to 549 ¾ region. Below that a test of 535 ¾ to 534 1/2 is likely.

Resistance should appear near 579 ¼ to 580 ½ and the 585 ½ to 588 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 602 ¼ to 603 ½.                                                                                                      

 

                                             THE LIVELY LIVESTOCK

FEBRUARY CATTLE

Support should appear near 15760 to 15690, below that a test of 15350 to 15290 is likely.

Resistance should appear near 16090 to 16150 and the 16240 to 16550 region.

    

APRIL CATTLE

Support should appear near 15760 to 15690. Below that a test of 15350 to 15290 is likely to occur.

Resistance should appear near 16090 to 16150 then 16277 and the 16422 to 16557 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near the 16890 to 16960 region.

 

FEBRUARY HOGS

Support should appear near 7867 to 7837 then 7777 to 7762 and the 7692 to 7672 region.

Resistance should appear near 7937 to 7957 and 8027 to 8047. Beyond that sellers should appear near 8192 to 8223 and cap a rally.

APRIL HOGS

Support should appear near 7957 to 7932 and the 7867 to 7837 region.

Resistance should appear near 8117 to 8137 and 8192 to 8222. Beyond that sellers should appear near 8302 to 8317. Traders can sell at 8292 and hold for lower prices.

 

JUNE HOGS

Support should appear near 8872 to 8857 and 8777 to 8762. Below that 8682 to 8667 should hold.

Resistance should appear near 9037 to 9057 and the 9137 to 9157 region, where sellers should appear and cap a rally. Stay Tuned for Livestock Flashes.

 

 

 

                                               THE SATISFYING SOFTS

MARCH COFFEE

Resistance should appear near 18080 to 18220 and 18580 to 18650. Beyond that sellers should appear near 19020 to 19090 and cap a rally.

Support should appear near 17380 to 17310 and the 16960 to 16890 region Below that buyers should appear near 16550 to 16420 and contain a decline.

 

MARCH COCOA

Resistance should appear near 3036 to 3045 and 3092 to 3102. Beyond that sellers should appear near 3148 to 3157 and cap a rally.

Support should appear near 2937 to 2928 and the 2883 to 2872 region. Failure there augurs for a test of 2775 to 2758.

 

MARCH SUGAR

Resistance is near 1496 and 1529 to 1535. Beyond that sellers should appear near 1560 to 1576,

Support should appear near 1459 to 1453 and 1421 to 1415. Below that a test of 1383 to 1377 is likely.

 

MARCH COTTON

Support should appear near 5957 to 5945 and the 5880 to 5855 region.

Below that at test of 5577 to 5553 is likely.

Resistance is at 6101 to 6113 and 6165 to 6190. Beyond that sellers should appear near 6337 to 6350.

 

                                     Stay tuned for Flashes and Updates in all Markets

 

–A Ship in Harbor is Safe…But that is not what ships are built for –

Happy Trading!

Bill wil@futurescom.com

 

Saturday January 10th, 2015 10:00 PM South Florida Beach Time

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Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook # 464 December 27, 2014 Equity Indices – Treasuries – Forex – Currency Trading with Precious Metals – Energy – Grains – Livestock – Coffee – Sugar- Cocoa – Cotton

Dec 282014
 

FuturesCom  Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook # 464  Saturday December 27, 2014.  SP500 and  Equity Indices • Bonds • Currency Trading • Forex • Precious Metals • Energy • Grains • Livestock • Coffee •  Sugar • Cocoa  • Cotton.  Free Two Week Trial see https://futurescom.com/free-trial-2

“Among the hazards of speculation the happening of the unexpected -I might even say the unexpectable – ranks high. There are certain chances that the most prudent man is justified in taking – chances that he must take if he wishes to be more than a mercantile mollusk–“- Reminiscences of a Stock operator. –

Saturday December 27, 2014

3:00 AM, South Florida Beach Time

 

Trading and volatility tend to pick up after the New-Year Holiday and into the first few months of the year.    Traders should stay nimble and stay tuned for flashes and updates for all markets.

k3691232U.S Stock Indices are higher on the year. Interest rates are at or near zero, nothing has changed. Seasonally the stock market tends to firm up into year end and it has. Forex Markets; the euro long term downside targets remain well below the current trading ranges and levels. Traders should look to Sell Swiss Franc Futures (Buy USD/CHF) and Euro and be short as the year turns. The Swiss National Bank’s desire to cap the Swiss Franc strength may show itself into early next year. The 2012 and 2013 spring/summer lows are nearby and any real move past that could open up a door where the Swiss may go back to levels seen just prior to the financial mess in 2007.  That said; traders should not expect help from the U.S Federal Reserve with rate moves anytime soon. However the SNB is unlikely to get brushed aside from doing what it has set out to do.  Central banks tend to work things out over decades.
Cable downside support is 15350 to 15290 and really below that now at 14960 to 14840. Resistance is above the market at 16090 to 16150. Middle of the road selling should occur near 15690 to 15760.  The USD/CAD (Canadian Dollar Futures targets are lower) longer term targets remain higher.
Dollar-Yen is trading higher on the year. On the downside support is at 11920 then 11805 and the 11690 to 11640 region. The nearby target on top is now 12320 to 12380 with higher tests down the road.  Throughout the past decade and the previous one Japanese GDP has continued to disappoint policymakers, from one election to another and year after year. Sort of like a broken record. Dollar Yen typically rises into the end of the year. Traders should consider Yen a trading affair. Look to get long USD/JPY during a dip (Sell Yen futures on a rally) have longs (short futures) on into the New Year.  The Aussie and Kiwi longer term downside targets are lower. Seasonally the Aussie typically can firm a bit and that is waning. Both the Kiwi and Aussie dollar are down on the year. Sell Rallies.      

Please note; Analysis for overseas equity and foreign exchange markets are available upon request. For more detailed information or a country by county economic analysis for trading or hedging programs please call or email a request.

Precious Metals and Energy; Gold and Silver remain weak longer term, nothing has changed.
Gold bounced from a good low at the 1136.0 to 1130.0 region and frankly remains range bound and is now lower on the year. While gold typically firms into the end of the year, it has not. Copper remains weak and is below the lows of the past several years. Copper can typically firm up a bit, how much is the question we posed two weeks ago and apparently copper answered that question and decided to run back down. Let be simple here. Copper is a blithering mess. Silver is lower on the year. Nothing has changed. The metals have room on the downside and upside and the trends are down.

 

Ditto for WTI Crude Oil, Brent Crude and the products, they all accelerated to the downside, bounced a bit and now are range bound. Heating Oil and Unleaded Gas and now Natural Gas have years of price on top of the market and remain weak.  Weather is not favorable for extraordinary increased use and Natural Gas has left the region on top and is now probing long term prices not seen for a while and accelerating the move into the year end.  Weather can change keep things nimble.

 

Grains are trading affairs.  World ending soybean stocks are expected to increase to above record levels. Three years ago Brazilian exports were 30 million tonnes and could reach 45 to 50 million tonnes next year with a good crop. Transportation logistics to move the agricultural products has improved and decreased to cost to transport the soybeans.  Traders should look to sell a rally in Soybeans in advance of some possible weakness into February, then see how things develop at that point. Generally speaking traders should look to buy beans sometime in the middle of February for a trade and preferably at lower prices than currently trading. Wheat set back from recent highs made during the recent Russian panic. Record world Wheat supplies are likely just over the horizon.
The all-time in Wheat was made during spring time several years back but generally speaking Wheat typically makes its highs of the season into early January. Weather in the U.S and more overseas geo-political issues will likely be in focus into early 2015.  Corn is acting better and is higher on the month. Farmer selling should increase after the first of the year and many producers are happy to see Corn at 4.00 to 4.25.  Live Cattle futures have stabilized. Higher beef prices and the tight Cattle supply can be supportive on declines.  Cold weather may affect livestock movement and development this time of year, so that is something to watch for since winter is upon us. Earlier in the week the USDA released its Quarterly Pig-Crop report. The Hog and Pig report was considered slightly bearish across the board, there is expected to be more hogs available for slaughter into the spring of 2015. That news was pretty much in the market as seen by the decline prior to the report. There are some longer term issues with increased supply. Slaughter capacity to process the animals can be ‘tested’ and then problems arise as it did in 1998 or if freezer capacity is breached and supplies end up coming to the market rather quickly.  These are things to think about down the road. For now, consider the livestock markets a trading affair, and stay tuned for livestock flashes and updates.

Coffee is lower on the month, yet higher on year and during bullish periods it typically does not take out the October low in December and it has. The strength of the Dollar has recently pressured coffee prices. Looking ahead a bit into next year, estimates of Coffee’s global supply/demand balance
for 2014/ 2015 are as wide as a football field.  The guesstimates range from a deficit of 10 million bags to a surplus of 2.5 million. The average guess is for a deficit of around 3 million bags. Weather may also come into play in Coffee again. If an El-Nino event occurs during the first part of 2015 the Vietnamese coffee crop may see some dry weather. However the El-Nino story has been around for a while now and nothing has changed, but it is something to be aware of. Sugar is a trading affair, acts badly and is near contract lows. Soft global demand and weak energy continue to pressure sugar. Chinese sugar imports last month were less than expected.
Trends typically don’t change much in the last week of the year. Cotton continues to bounce around and is lower on the year. Cotton held some good support that is now below the prevailing price and has rallied on expectations for reduced US plantings and somewhat better demand. Overseas, India is trying to support prices domestically by purchasing cotton some producers and urging others to switch to other crops.  Cocoa is up on the year. The 4th Quarter Cocoa grinding report will be released on January 15.  West African growing weather remains favorable. Ivory Coast and Ghana are behind last season’s mid-December port arrivals. The possible impacts on Indonesian cocoa production if an
El Nino occurs (or not) is something to watch for in early 2015. The best demand growth regions for Cocoa will likely be areas of the world that have the best population growth and income growth.

That said; it’s also possible that the highs in Cocoa seen this year are it and it’s on its way back to under the price levels seen for most of this year. Something few expect. Traders should always expect the unexpected.

 

Stay tuned for flashes and updates for all markets.  On to the Nitty Gritty.

 

                                     THE SENSATIONAL STOCK AND BOND MARKET

 

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE
Support is near 17,800.00 to 17,740.00 and the 17,380.00 to 17,310.00 region
Resistance is at 18,080.00 to 18,220.00 and 18,580.00 to 18,650.00

DOW JONES TRANSPORTS

Support should appear near 9,156.00 to 9,140.00 and 9,060.00 to 9,044.00.
Below that buyers should appear near 8,964.00 to 8,934.00

Resistance is at 9,316.00 to 9,347.00 and the 9,429.00 to 9,445.00 region.

 

MARCH E-MINI SP500

Resistance should appear near 2089.00 then 2108.00 and the 2126.00 to 2134.00 region.

Support should appear near 2080.00 and 2061.50. Below that support should appear near the 2042.00 to 2034.00 region.

 

NASDAQ COMPOSITE

Resistance should appear at 4845.00 to 4856.00 then 4915.00 to 4926.00 and the
4973.00 to 4995.00 region.
Support should appear near 4785.00 to 4775.00 and the 4717.00 to 4695.00 region.
MARCH E-MINI NASDAQ 100
Support should appear near 4304.00 and the 4249.00 to 4238.00 region. Below that buyers should appear near 4183.00 to 4163.00
Resistance is at 4370.00 to 4381.00 and the 4425.00 to 4446.00 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 4503.00 to 4514.00.


MARCH E-MINI RUSSELL 2000

Resistance should appear near 1232.00 to 1238.00 and the 12687.00 to 1274.00 region.
Support should appear near 1203.00 to 1192.00 and 1169.00 to 1164.00.

 

MARCH 30 YR BONDS

Resistance should appear near 144-07. Beyond that sellers should appear near 145-11 and 145-21 Support should appear near 143-07 and 142-21. Below that 141-21 should hold for now. Below that a test of 14-07 and 139-21 is likely

 

MARCH 10 YR NOTE

Resistance should appear near 126-12 and 126-22. Beyond that sellers should appear near 127-21 and should cap a rally.
Support should appear near 125-22. Below that a test of 125-07 and 124-22 is likely. Failure there augurs for a test of 123-22.                                               

 

 

                                             THE FRENZIED FOREX FRONT

MARCH DOLLAR INDEX

Resistance should appear near 9044 to 9060. An extended trade over is friendly and augurs for a test of 9100 and eventually the 9140 to 9156 region.

Support should appear near 8964 to 8934 and the 8871 to 8856 region. Where buyers should step in and contain a decline.
MARCH JAPANESE YEN
Resistance should appear near 8391 to 8406 and the 8484 to 8499. Traders can sell at 8481 and hold for lower prices.  Risk a close over 8507 for three days in a row.
Support should appear near 8300 and the 8223 to 8194 region, under that a trade towards 8044 to 8029 is likely to occur.
MARCH EURO CURRENCY

Support should appear near 12175 and the 12030 to 11920 region. Below that a test of 11690 to 11640 is likely.
Resistance should appear near 12247 and the 12320 to 12380 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 12442 and 12530. Stay tuned for Flashes

 

MARCH SWISS FRANC

Resistance should appear near 10183 then 10227 and the 10320 to 10360 region.
Traders can sell at 10227 and hold for lower prices.
Support should appear near 10136 to 10104, below that a test of 10037 to 10021 and the 9937 to 9921
region is likely.  Trade Accordingly

 

MARCH BRITISH POUND

Support should appear near 15350 to 15290 and 14960 to 14840
Resistance should appear near 15690 to 15760 then 15922 and 16090 to 16150.
MARCH CANADIAN DOLLAR

Resistance should appear near 8668 to 8683 and the 8756 to 8777 region.
Traders can sell at 8661 and risk a close over 8687 for three days in a row.
Support should appear near 8560, below that a test of 8499 to 8484 is likely.
MARCH AUSSIE DOLLAR
Support should appear near 8044 to 8029 and the 7954 to 7939 region. Below that a test of 7777 to 7763 is likely.
Resistance should appear near 8194 to 8223 then 8300 to 8314 and 8391 to 8406.
Traders can sell at 8257 and risk a close over 8321 for three days in a row.                                                 

 

                                                         THE PRECIOUS METALS

 

FEBRUARY GOLD

Resistance should appear near 1203.00 then 1232.0 to 1238.0 and the 1268 to 1274 region.

Support should appear near 1180.50 and the 1169.00 to 1164.0 region. Below that a test of
1136.00 to 1130 is likely.

 

MARCH COPPER
Resistance should appear near 28200 to 28290 and the 28740 to 28830 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 29280 to 29370.

Support should appear near 27750 to 27580, below that as test of the 26720 to 26630 region is likely
MARCH SILVER

Support should appear near 1576 to 1569 and the 1535 to 1529 region. Below that a test of 1496 to 1484 is likely.

Resistance is at 1642 to 1655 and the 1689 to 1696 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 1731 to 1738.

 

                                                 THE EXCITING ENERGIES

 

FEBRUARY CRUDE OIL

Support should appear near 5356 to 5344 region. Below that a test of 5067 to 5056 is likely.
Resistance should appear near 5855 to 5880 then 5945 to 5957 and the 6165 to 6190 region.
FEBRUARY BRENT CRUDE OIL
Support should appear near 5880 to 5855 and the 5729 to 5716 region. Below that a test of 5577 to 5553 is likely.
Resistance should appear near 6023 to 6035 and 6257 to 6270 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 66337 to 6350 and cap a rally.

 

FEBRUARY HEATING OIL

Support should appear near the 8650 to 18580 region. Below that a test of 18220 to 18080 is likely.

Resistance should appear 19829 to 19960 and 20340 to 20420.
FEBRUARY UNLEADED GAS

Support should appear 14960 to 14840 and 14590 to 14530.
Below that a test of 13830 to 13770 is likely
Resistance should appear near 15290 to 15350 and the 15690 to 15760 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 16090 to 16150 and cap a rally.

FEBRUARY NATURAL GAS

Support should appear near 29900 to 2970 and the 29370 to 29280 region. Below that a test of
28830 to 28740 and the 28290 to 28200 region is likely.
Resistance should appear near 30920 to 31020 and the 31940 to 32130 region.                                                                                             

 

Stay Tuned for Energy Flashes

 

                                                 THE GRANDE’ GRAINS

MARCH SOYBEANS
Support should appear near 1013 ¾ to 1010 ½ and 973 ¾ to 970 ¾.. Below that a test of 934 3/4 to 931 ¾ is likely.

Resistance should appear near the 1058 to 1068 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 1096 to 1101 and cap a rally.

 

MARCH SOYOIL
Support should appear near 3213 to 3194 and 3157 to 3148. Below that a test of 3045 to 3036 is likely.
Resistance should appear near the 3377 to 3386 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 3425 to 3443 and cap a rally.

 

MARCH SOYMEAL
Resistance should appear near the 368.3 to 369.3 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 379.5 to 380.6 and 385.8 to 386.7 should cap a rally
Support should appear near 356.3 to 355.3, below that a test of 350.3 to 349.3 is likely. Under that buyers should appear near 338.6 to 337.3
MARCH CORN

Support should appear near 399 ¼ to 398 ¼ and the 386 ¾ to 385 ¾. Below that buyers should appear near 368 ¼ to 366 ¼ and contain a decline.
Resistance should appear near 416 ¼ to 418 ¼ and the 423 ¾ to 424 ¾ region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 442 ½ to 444 ¾
MARCH WHEAT
Support should appear near 588 to 585 ½ and 572 ¾ to 571 ¾. Below that a test of 557 ¾ to 555 ¼ and 550 ¼ to 549 ¾ is likely.
Resistance should appear near 616 ½ to 619 and the 633 ¾ to 635 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 641 ¾ to 643 and cap a rally.                                                                                                      

                                                       THE LIVELY LIVESTOCK

FEBRUARY CATTLE
Support should appear near 16150 to 16090 and the 15760 to 15690 region.

Resistance should appear near 16417 to 16552 and the 16890 to 16960 region.

     

APRIL CATTLE

Support should appear near 16090 and 15760 to 15690.  Below that a test of 15350 to 15290 is likely to occur.

Resistance should appear near 16227 and 16417 to 16557. Beyond that sellers should appear near the 16890 to 16960 region.

 

FEBRUARY HOGS

Support should appear near 8137 to 8117 and the 8047 to 8027 region. Below that a test of 7957 to 7937 is likely

Resistance should appear near 8192 to 8222 and the 8297 to 8317 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 8392 to 8407 and cap a rally.
APRIL HOGS

Support should appear near 8407 to 8392 and the 8317 to 8292 region. Below that a test of 8222 to 8192 is likely.

Resistance should appear near 8557 to 8592 and the 8667 to 8682 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 8762 to 8777 and cap a rally

 

JUNE HOGS

Support should appear near 9062 to 9042 and the 8967 to 8932 region. Below that a test of 8872 to 8857 is likely and should hold.  Under that buyers should appear near 8682 to 8667.

Resistance should appear near the 9137 to 9157 and the 9312 to 9347 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 9427 to 9447 and 9527 to 9542

Stay Tuned for Livestock Flashes.

 

                                               THE SATISFYING SOFTS

MARCH COFFEE

Resistance should appear near 17310 to 17380 and 17740 to 17800. Beyond that sellers should appear near 18080 to 18220 then 18580 to 18650 and cap a rally.

Support should appear near 16550 to 16420 and should find some buyers. Failure there is negative and augurs for a test of 16150 to 16090 and the 15760 to 15690 region.

Stay tuned for Flashes
MARCH COCOA

Resistance should appear near 2972 to 2990 and the 3036 to 3045 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 3092 to 3102.

Support should appear near 2883 to 2874 and the 2775 to 2758 region. Below that a test of 2724 to 2716 is likely     Trade Accordingly

 

MARCH SUGAR

Resistance is near 1529 to 1535 and the 1569 to 1575 region.
Support should appear near 1459 to 1453 and the 1421 to 1415 region. Below that buyers should appear near 1383 to 1377.


MARCH COTTON

Support should appear near 6035 to 6023 and the 5880 to 5855 region.

Resistance is at 6165 to 6190 then 6257 to 6270 and the 6335 to 6350 region.

 

                                      Stay tuned for Flashes and Updates in all Markets

 

–A Ship in Harbor is Safe…But that is not what ships are built for –

Happy Trading!

Bill wil@futurescom.com

 

Saturday December 27th, 2014 3:45 PM South Florida Beach Time
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