Futures Trading Newsletter ‘Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook’ #473.
FuturesCom Futures Trading Newsletter Sunday May 03, 2015. SP500 and Equity Indices • Bonds • Currency Trading • Forex • Precious Metals • Energy • Grains • Livestock • Coffee • Sugar • Cocoa • Cotton. for a Free Two Week trial to our Futures Trading Newsletter see https://futurescom.com/free-trial-2
“The best thing about the future is that it comes one day at a time.”- Abraham Lincoln
Friday May 1, 2015
7:00 AM, South Florida Beach Time
Traders should remain prepared for wide movements in all markets. Stay tuned for flashes, updates and additional recommendations. Interest rates in the U.S. are still zero. The political season in the U.S. is well under way now. The Stock market remains near historical highs. The Dow Jones Transportation average has been acting a little soft. The Russell has weakened somewhat as money piles into Nasdaq stocks. Overseas in Japan traders should continue to treat Japanese Yen futures as a trading affair. Spot Dollar-Yen (inverse of the futures) continues to trade on both sides of unchanged on the year by a little bit. On the downside, the USD/JPY support is at 11815 and the 11690 to 11640 region. The nearby resistance is 12030 and the 12320 to 12380 region. In Europe, the Dax has declined a little as the Euro moved higher, this is a conundrum for policy officials in Europe. The Euro has resistance 11300 to 11360. Support lies near 11010 to 10960 and possible eventual targets are lower near 10360 to 10300. The UK will hold elections next week. Look for more volatility for the British Pound which acted very badly on Friday. Looking north of the border at the Canadian Dollar, the U.S. Dollar-Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD) trading range has not changed. USD/CAD has some support at 12030 to 11920. Resistance remains near 12320 to 12380 and 12680 to 12740. Canadian Dollar futures (inverse of USD/CAD) support is at 8044 to 8029 and 7777 to 7763. Resistance is at the 8300 region. Short term Canadian dollar futures are a trading affair, long term it can fall to below 7000. Nothing has changed.
The Australian dollar and the Kiwi are trading in wide ranges and we expect that to continue, stay tuned for flashes. The long term targets are lower. We expect more volatility next week in some areas of the globe.
Analysis for overseas equity and foreign exchange markets are available upon request. For cross-country or country-by-country analysis for trading and hedging, please call or email a request.
Gold and silver continue slipped a little last week while copper acts better. Support for Gold and Silver is well below current trading levels. Copper is pushing up against medium term resistance. Natural Gas prices firmed up a little and are still trading near the recent lows. WTI Crude Oil, Brent Crude and the products have all moved higher. Crude Oil is now a trading affair. Stay tuned for energy flashes. Traders should expect increased volatility in grain markets as the U.S. growing season progresses. Traders should also expect a lot of price movement in both Live Cattle and Lean Hogs on a daily basis. The Governor of Iowa has declared a state of emergency due to bird flu issues. The Soft Commodities have shown some volatility. Coffee has broken down and long term downside targets are near 116.90 to 116.40. in the meantime Coffee is a trading affair. Sugar bounced and found some sellers. Sugar is a trading affair. Cotton is higher on the year and is entering a period of time where some typical weakness occurs and it may be showing that weakness now. Prices are getting a little high considering what the supply levels are. Cocoa rallied a little and acted badly on Friday. Nothing has changed. Traders should expect wide ranges and a trading affair in Cocoa. Onto the Nitty Gritty
THE SENSATIONAL STOCK AND BOND MARKET
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE Nearby support is at 17,800.00 to 17,740.00 and 17,380.00 to 17,310.00 where it should hold. Under that a test of the 16,960.00 to 16,890.00 region is likely.
Nearby resistance is at the 18,080.00 to 18,220.00 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near the 18,580.00 to 18,650.00 region and should cap a rally.
DOW JONES TRANSPORTS
Support should appear near the 8499.00 to 8484.00 region. Below that a test of 8406.00 to 8391.00 region is likely.
Resistance is at 8762.00 to 8777 and the 8856.00 to 8871.00 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 8934.00 to 8964.00.
JUNE E-MINI SP500
Resistance should appear near 2126.00 to 2134.00 and the 2170.00 to 2185.00 region. Traders can sell at 2124.75 and initially risk a close over 2137 for three days in row.
Support should appear near 2080.00 then 2061.509 and the 2042.00 to 2034.00 region.
Below that a test of 1996.00 to 1982.00 is likely.
NASDAQ COMPOSITE
Resistance should appear at 5056.00 to 5067.00 and the 5127.0 to 5139.00 region. Support should appear near 4915.00 then 4856.00 to 4845.00 and the 4765 to 4775 region.
JUNE E-MINI NASDAQ 100
Support should appear near 4315.00 to 4304.00 , an extended trade or close under is negative and augurs for a test of 4249.00 to 4238.00, below that a test of 4183.00 to 4163.00 is likely. Resistance is at 4503.00 to 4514.00 and 4571.00 to 4582.00
JUNE E-MINI RUSSELL 2000
Resistance should appear near 1232.0 to 1238.0 and 1253.00. Support should appear near 1203.00 to 1192.00, below that a test of the 1169.00 to 1164.00 region is likely.
JUNE 30 YR BONDS
Resistance should appear near 160-21 and 161-21. Beyond that sellers should appear near
164-12 and 165-21
Support should appear near 153-21 and 152-07 , below that a test of 149-22 is likely.
JUNE 10 YR NOTE
Resistance should appear near 128-21 and 130-21 and 131-07.
Support should appear near 126-22 and 123-22 and 123-07 where buyers should appear and contain a decline.
THE FRENZIED FOREX FRONT
JUNE DOLLAR INDEX
Resistance should appear near 9625 to 9641, a close over augurs for a test of the 9706 to 9737 region. Support should appear near the 9445 to 9429 and 9347 to 9316
JUNE JAPANESE YEN
Resistance should appear near 8484 to 8499 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 8560 to 8589.
Support should appear near 8314 to 8300 and the 8223 to 8194 region.
JUNE EURO CURRENCY
Support should appear 11010 to 10960 and 10680 to 10580
Resistance should appear near 11300 to 11360 and 11500 Traders should go short if a close under 11152 occurs
JUNE SWISS FRANC
Resistance should appear near 10960 to 11010
Support should appear near 10680 then 10580 and 10470.
JUNE BRITISH POUND
Support should appear near 14960 to 14840 then 14727 and the 14590 to 1453 region.
Resistance should appear near the 15290 to 15350 and 15522
JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
Resistance should appear near 8300 to 8314 and 8391 to 8406
Support should appear near 8134 to 8119 then 8044 to 8029.
JUNE AUSSIE DOLLAR Resistance should appear near 7834 to 7864 then 7939 to 7954 and the 8029 to 8044 region.
Support should appear near 7689 to 7675 and the 7601 to 7587 region.
Stay tuned for Forex flashes and updates.
THE PRECIOUS METALS
JUNE GOLD
Resistance should appear near 1192 to 1203 and the 1232.0 to 1238.0 region.
Support should appear near 1169.0 to 1164.0 a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 1136.00 to 1130.00. Below that a trade towards 1101 to 1096 is likely.
JULY COPPER Resistance should appear near 29370 and the 29720 to 29900 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 30360 to 30450.
Support should appear near 28830 to 28740 and the 28290 to 28200 region. Below that a test of 26200 to 26120 is likely to occur.
JULY SILVER
Support should appear near 1576 to 1569 region. Below that a test of 1535 to 1529 is likely.
Resistance is at 1642 to 1655 then 1689.0 to 1696.0 and the 1731.0 to 1738.0 region.
Pick your poison ….
THE EXCITING ENERGIES
JUNE CRUDE OIL
Support should appear near 5880 to 5855 , a close under is negative and augurs for a test of
5577 to 5553.
Resistance should appear near 5945 to 5957 then 6023 to 6035 and 6101 to 6113
JULY CRUDE OIL
Support should appear near 5957 to 5945. A close under is negative and indicates a test of 5880 to 5855 and the 5729 to 5716 region.
Resistance should appear near 6101 to 6113 and the 6165 to 6190 region.
Traders should go short if a close under 5944 occurs.
JUNE BRENT CRUDE OIL
Support should appear near 6350 to 6337 and 6113 to 6101.
Resistance should appear near 6659 to 6673 and the 6809 to 6836 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 6906 to 6919 and cap a rally.
JUNE HEATING OIL
Support should appear near 19460 and the 19090 to 19020. Below that a test of 18220 to 18080 is likely.
Resistance should appear 19960 then 20340 to 20420 and 20800 to 20890
JUNE UNLEADED GAS
Support should appear near 20340 then 19960 to 19820 and the 19090 to 19020 region.
Resistance should appear 20800 to 20890 and the 21260 to 21340 region.
JUNE NATURAL GAS
Support should appear near 2.724 to 2.716. Below that a test of 2.672 to 2.663 and the 2.620 to 2.612 region is likely.
Resistance should appear near 2.820 to 2.829 and the 2.874 to 2.883 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 2.928 to 2.937 and cap a rally. Stay Tuned for Energy Flashes and Updates
THE GRANDE’ GRAINS
JULY SOYBEANS Support should appear near 944 ½ to 942 ¾ and 934 ¾ to 931 ¾. Below that a test of 906 to 904 ½ and the 896 ½ to 893 ½ region is likely.
Resistance should appear near 970 ¾ to 973 ¾ and 982 ¼ to 983 ¾. Beyond that sellers should appear near 1002 ¼ to 1003 ¾ and cap a rally.
NOVEMBER SOYBEANS
Support should appear near 934 ¾ to 931 ¾. Below that a test of 915 ¾ to 914 is likely.
Resistance should appear near 962 ½ to 964 ¼ and 970 ¾ to 973 ¾.
JULY SOYOIL Support should appear near 3102 to 3092 . Below that a test of 3045 to 3036 is likely
Resistance should appear near 3194 to 3213 and 3261 to 3270.
JULY SOYMEAL Resistance should appear near 314.8 to 315.7 and 319.4 to 321.3
Support should appear near 304.5 to 303.6 and 299.0 to 297.2. Below that buyers should appear near 282.9 to 282.0. Traders can buy at 283.1 for a bounce and risk a close under 281.9 for three days in a row.
JULY CORN
Support should appear near 350 ¼ to 349 ½ and the 327 to 326 ¼ region Resistance should appear near 366 ¼ to 368 ¼ and 373 ½ to 374 ¾.
JULY WHEAT Support should appear near 438 ¼ to 437 and 418 ¼ to 416 ¼
Resistance should appear near 484 ½ to 485 ¾ and 497 ¼ to 499 ½ Stay tuned for Grain flashes and updates.
THE LIVELY LIVESTOCK
JUNE CATTLE Support should appear near 14840, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of the 14590 to 14530 region. Below that buyers should appear near 14210 to 14150.
Resistance should appear near 14960 and 15117. Beyond that sellers should appear near 15290 to 15350 and cap a rally. Trade Accordingly.
AUGUST CATTLE
Support should appear near 14590 to 14530 region. Below that a test of 14210 to 14150 is likely
Resistance should appear near the 14840 to 14960 region.
JUNE HOGS Support should appear near 7957 to 7932 and the 7777 to 7762 region. A close under is negative and augurs for a test of 7342 to 7327.
Resistance should appear near 8300 to 8317 and the 8392 to 8407 region.
OCTOBER HOGS
Support should appear near 7002 to 6992 and the 6922 to 6907 region.
Resistance should appear near 7327 to 7342 and 7412 to 7427
THE SATISFYING SOFTS
JULY COFFEE
Resistance should appear near 13830 and the 14150 to 14210 region. .
Support should appear near 12740 to 12680, below that a test of 12380 to 12320 is likely.
JULY COCOA
Resistance should appear near 2928 to 2937 and 2972 to 2990.
Support should appear near the 2672 to 2663 and the 2620 to 2612 region Traders can sell at 2927 and hold for lower prices.
JULY SUGAR
Resistance is near 1334 to 1346 and the 1377 to 1383 region. Support should appear near 1274 to 1268 and 1238 to 1232, a close under augurs for a test of 1203 to 1192 and eventually the 1169 to 1164 region. Trade Accordingly.
JULY COTTON
Support should appear near 6035 to 6023. Under that buyers should appear near 5957 to 5945
Resistance is at 6659 to 6672 and the 6809 to 6836 region
Stay tuned for Flashes and Updates in all Markets
–A Ship in Harbor is Safe…But that is not what ships are built for –
Happy Trading!
Bill wil@futurescom.com Friday May 1, 2015 11:00 PM South Florida Beach Time
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