Futures Trading Newsletter , Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook #506

FuturesCom Futures Trading Newsletter Sunday August 14  2016.  SP500 and  Equity Indices • Bonds • Currency Trading • Forex • Precious Metals • Energy • Grains • Livestock • Coffee •  Sugar • Cocoa  • Cotton.  for a Free Two Week trial to our Futures Trading Newsletter  see https://futurescom.com/free-trial-2

 

Saturday August 13th, 2016

3:00 PM, South Florida Beach Time

Stay tuned for additional recommendations and updates. Major U.S. stock market averages moved up into new highs (against FuturesCom’s levels) last week, look for active mid-month trading activity.

U.S. Interest rates remain low, historically 30-year bond futures tend to stay firm now until early September. On Wednesday the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is scheduled to publish the minutes of July policy meeting. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen is scheduled speak at the Jackson Hole Conference on Aug. 26. In the forex markets the U.S. dollar index continues to trade within the recent broad range. Europe’s Euro (EUR/USD) has resistance at 11300 to 11360 and 11500. Support remains at 11010 to 10960. A German cooperative savings bank in Bavaria will soon begin charging customers for savings accounts rather than paying interest. The Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) sentiment surveys are due out Tuesday. In the United Kingdom adjustments from the Brexit vote is ongoing. Cable (GBP/USD) support should appear near 12740 to 12680 and the 12380 to 12320 region. Resistance is now 13040 to 13100 and 13340 to 13460. Sell rallies. USD/CAD (Canadian Dollar) support remains near 12890 and 12740 to 12680. Resistance is 13040 to 13100 and 13340 to 13460. USD/CAD is a trading affair.

Dollar Yen (USD/JPY) resistance is now 10320 to 10360. Support is at 10037 to 10021. If you purchase a house in Japan, the ‘norm’ is for the value of the home to depreciate to nothing in 40 years.

Japan’s Cabinet Office is scheduled to release gross domestic product (GDP) at 7:50 p.m. ET.

Japan’s Ministry of Economy Trade and Industry is scheduled to release industrial production and capacity utilization figures at 12:30 a.m. The Aussie and Kiwi remain trading affairs. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is scheduled to release the minutes of its August monetary policy meeting Monday evening. The Central Bank of New Zealand cut rates. The Kiwi firmed up as momentum traders ran for the hills when it did not decline. Afterwards it fell apart after failing to trade into the 7328 to 7342 region. Look for a test 7003 to 6990 if it does not hold. China’s Yuan is a trading affair. Resistance is now 6.659 to 6.673. Support is near 6.591 to 6.577. A Chinese regulation that was updated on August 3rd to include imports from the U.S. requires exporters to the nation to fumigate and certify that cargo is mosquito free prior to entry into China, or face fumigation measures there. Steamship lines have already begun to issue advisories. Precious Metals; Gold and silver act sloppy. Copper remains a trading affair. Energies; Crude Oil and the products bounced and will likely continue to trade in a wide range. Natural Gas fell apart. Stay tuned for energy flashes and updates. The USDA crop production report was released Friday. The agency estimate for U.S. soybean production was 4.060 billion bushels, versus 3.880 billion bushels on the July USDA report. The soybean yield was 48.9 bushels/acre versus 46.7 bushels per acre on the previous report. Soybeans appear to be heading lower. The USDA estimate for U.S. corn production is 15.153 billion bushels. The corn yield was 175.1 bushels/acre. Corn made new contract lows Friday before bouncing into the end of the session. Seasonally corn can bounce for a typical mid-month rally in a bear mkt. The USDA estimate for all U.S. wheat production was 2.321 billion bushels versus 2.261 billion on the agency’s July report. Traders should keep an eye on wheat for trades. Buying December wheat near the lowest level for the current September contract may offer value. Traders should NOT rule out lower prices into September, be careful. Wheat tends to firm up into November and December when the ‘typical’ high is made. Hogs and cattle continue choppy and sideways. During bear periods Cattle prices tend to erode for the remainder of the summer. Stay tuned for updates and flashes. Soft Commodities; Sugar can fall into October. Cotton acts lousy. We recommended rolling short September Cocoa to December.

Stay tuned for coffee flashes. Stay tuned updates and flashes. On to the Nitty Gritty.     

                                             THE SENSATIONAL STOCK AND BOND MARKET

 

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE Support is at 18,400.00 and 18,220.00 to 18,080.00.

Resistance is at 18,580.00 to 18650.00 and the 19,020.00 to 19,090.00 region.

 

DOW JONES TRANSPORTS

Support should appear near 7777.00 to 7763.00 and the 7513.00 to 7486.00 region.   Resistance should appear near 7939 to 7954 and 8029.00 to 8044.00.

 

SEPT E-MINI SP500

Resistance should appear near the 2219.00 to 2226.00 region.

Support should appear near 2134.00 to 2126.00 and 2107.50.

 

NASDAQ COMPOSITE

Resistance should appear near the 5344.00 to 5356.00 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 5492.00 to 5504.00 and cap a rally.

Support should appear near 5139.00 to 5127.00 and 5067.00 to 5056.00.

 

SEPT E-MINI NASDAQ 100

Support should appear near 4775.00 to 4775.00 and 4717.00 to 4695.00

Resistance is at 4845.00 to 4856.00 and 4973.00 to 4995.00

 

SEPT E-MINI RUSSELL 2000

Resistance should appear near 1232.00 to 1238.00 and the 1268.00 to 1274.00 region.

Support should appear near 1203.00 to 1192.00 and 1168.00 to 1164.00.

 

 

 

 

SEPT 30 YR BONDS

Resistance should appear near 175-21 and 177-07 and 178-21

Support should appear near 172-07 and 170-21 and 169-07

SEPT 10 YR NOTES

Resistance should appear near 133-21 and 134-07. Beyond that a test of 134-21 is likely.

Support should appear near 132-07. Below that buyers should appear near 131-07 and 130-21.                                                                                                                                                                

 

 

                                           THE FRENZIED FOREX FRONT

 

SEPT DOLLAR INDEX

Resistance should appear near 9625 to 9641 and 9706 to 9737. Support should appear near 9347 to 9316 and 9156 to 9140.

JAPANESE YEN

Resistance should appear 10021 to 10037 and 10104 to 10136.   Support should appear near 9737 to 9706 and 9641 to 9625.

SEPT EURO CURRENCY

Support should appear near 11155 and 11010 to 10960. Resistance should appear near 11300 to 11360 and 11500.
SEPT SWISS FRANC

Resistance should appear near 10320 to 10360 and 10470

Support should appear near 10136 to 10104 and 10037 to 10021.

 

SEPT BRITISH POUND

Support should appear near 12740 to 12680 and the 12380 to 12320 region.

Resistance should appear near 13040 to 13100 and 13340 to 13460 region.

SEPT CANADIAN DOLLAR

Resistance should appear near 7763 to 7777 and the 7836 to 7864 region.

Support should appear near 7689 to 7675 and 7601 to 7587.

 

SEPT AUSSIE DOLLAR Resistance should appear near the 7675 to 7689 region and 7763 to 7777.

Support should appear near 7513 to 7486 and the 7428 to 7414 region. Traders should can sell at 7761 and risk 50 points.

 

 

                                        THE PRECIOUS METALS

 

DECEMBER GOLD

Resistance should appear near 1377 to 1383 and 1415.0 to 1421.0

Support should appear near the 1322.0 and the 1310.0 to 1304.0 region.

SEPT COPPER

Resistance should appear near 21700 to 21850 and the 22670 to 22750 region. Support should appear near 20890 to 20800 and 20420 to 20340.

 

SEPT SILVER

Resistance should appear near 1989.0 to 1996.0 and the 2034.0 to 2042.0 region.

Beyond that sellers should appear near 2080.0 to 2089.0

Support is at 1953.0 to 1946.0 and the 1909.0 to 1902.0 region. Below that a test of 1865.0 to 1858.0 and the 1822.0 to 1808.0 region is likely.

                                

                                        

 

 

 

 

                                                         THE EXCITING ENERGIES

OCTOBER CRUDE OIL

Support should appear near 4446 to 4425 and the 4314 to 4304 region. Below that a test of

4249 to 4238 is likely.

Resistance should appear near 4571 to 4582 and the 4639 to 4650 region. Beyond that sellers should

appear near 4695 to 4717 and cap a rally.

 

NOVEMBER CRUDE OIL

Support should appear near 4571 then 4446 to 4425 and the 4381 to 4370 region.

Resistance should appear near 4639 to 4650 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 4695 to 4717 and the 4775 to 4785 region.

OCTOBER BRENT CRUDE OIL

Support should appear near 4650 to 4639 then 4582 to 4571and the 4514 to 4503 region.

Resistance should appear near 4775 to 4785 and the 4845 to 4856 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 4915 to 4926.

OCTOBER HEATING OIL

Support should appear near 1420 to 14150 and the 13830 to 13770 region.          Below that buyers should appear near 13460 to 13340 region.

Resistance should appear near 14530 to 14590 and the 14840 to 14960 region

Beyond that sellers should appear near 15290 to 15350.

 

OCTOBER UNLEADED GAS

Support should appear near 12740 to 12680 and 12380 to 12320.

Below that a test of 12030 to 11920 is likely.

Resistance is at 13040 to 13100 then 13340 to 13460 and the 13770 to 13830 region.

OCTOBER NATURAL GAS

Support should appear near 2568 to 2552 then 2469 to 2461 and the 2370 to 2354 region. Resistance should appear near 2663 to 2672 then 2758 to 2775 and 2820 to 2829.                                                         THE GRANDE’ GRAINS

NOVEMBER SOYBEANS

Support should appear near the 973 ½ to 970 ¾ region. An extended trade or close under augurs for a test of the 934 ¾ to 931 ¾ region.

Resistance should appear near 992 ¼ to 993 ¼ and the 1013 ¾ to 1010 ½ region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 1032 to 1036. Traders can sell at 1031 ¾ and risk a close over 1047 ½ for three days in a row.

 

JANUARY SOYBEANS

Support should appear near 973 ½ to 970 ¾ and the 934 ¾ to 931 ¾ region.

Resistance should appear near 992 ¼ to 993 ¼ and the 1013 ¾ to 1010 ½ region.

 

DECEMBER SOYOIL Support should appear near 3213 to 3194 and the 2990 to 2972 region.

Resistance should appear near 3377 to 3386 and the 3425 to 3443 region.
DECEMBER SOYMEAL

Resistance should appear near 331.9 to 332.8 and the 342.5 to 344.2 region.

Support should appear near 321.3 to 319.4 and 310.2 to 309.2

DECEMBER CORN

Support should appear 321 ¼ to 319 ½ and the 304 ½ to 303 ¾ region. Below that buyers should appear near 299 to 297 ¼.

Resistance should appear near 337 ¾ to 338 ¾ and 342 ½ to 344 ¼. Beyond that sellers should appear near 349 ¼ to 350 ½.

 

DECEMBER WHEAT Support should appear near 431 ½ to 430 ¼ and 418 ¼ to 416 ½. Below that buyers should appear near the 386 ¾ to 385 ¾ region. Traders can buy at 387 ½ for a bounce and hold for higher prices.

Resistance should appear near 442 ½ to 444 ¾ and the 457 ¼ to 458 ¼ region.                                                                                                                                                                                     

                                                THE LIVELY LIVESTOCK  

OCTOBER CATTLE

Support should appear near 11360 to 11300, a close under augurs for a test of 11010 to 10960.

Resistance should appear near 11500 and the 11640 to 11690 region.

Traders should go short if a close under 11297 occurs.

DECEMBER CATTLE

Support should appear near 11360 to 11300 and the 11010 to 10960 region.

Resistance should appear near 11640 to 11690 and 11807

 

OCTOBER HOGS

Resistance should appear near 6022 to 6037 then 6102 to 6117 and the 6337 to 6352 region.

Support should appear near 5880 to 5855 and 5732 to 5717. Below that a test of 5577 to 5552 is likely.   Sell rallies

 

DECEMBER HOGS

Resistance should appear near 5552 to 5577 and the 5712 to 5737 region.

Support should appear near 5357 to 5342 and the 5067 to 5057 region.
Stay tuned for livestock flashes

 

                                          THE SATISFYING SOFTS

DECEMBER COFFEE

Resistance should appear near 14150 to 14210 and the 14840 to 14960 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 15290 to 15350 Support should appear near the 13830 to 13770 region. Below that a test of 13460 to 13340 is likely. Trade accordingly DECEMBER COCOA Support should appear near 2937 to 2928 and the 2883 to 2874 region. Resistance should appear near 3036 to 3045 and the 3092 to 3102 region OCTOBER SUGAR Resistance is near 1982 to 1996 and the 2126 to 2134 region. Support should appear near 1909 to 1902 and the 1822 to 1808 region.   DECEMBER COTTON Support should appear near 7003 to 6990 and 6919 to 6906. Below that a test of 6836 to 6809 is likely. Resistance should appear near 7242 to 7255 then 7328 to 7342 and 7414 to 7428.               Stay tuned for Flashes and Updates in all Markets

–A Ship in Harbor is Safe…But that is not what ships are built for –

 

Happy Trading!

Bill wil@futurescom.com

Sunday August 14, 2016 1:20 PM South Florida Beach Time

 

Terms of Use and Agreement  

FuturesCom Investment Publications © 1996 – 2016 All Rights Reserved

https://futurescom.com/futurescom-policies-and-terms-of-usage-and-agreement

 

THIS PUBLICATION IS SUBJECT TO REVISIONS AND CONTAINS THE VIEW AND OPINIONS OF THE AUTHOR, EXCEPT WHERE OPINIONS ARE ATTRIBUTED TO OTHER SOURCES. WRITTEN PERMISSION IS REQUIRED PRIOR TO ANY DISTRIBUTION OR REPRODUCTION. FUTURES AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING IS RISKY AND CAN CAUSE SUBSTANTIAL FINANCIAL LOSS. THE USE OF OPTIONS AND OPTION TRADING INVOLVES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK. THE USE OF STOPS MAY NOT LIMIT LOSSES TO INTENDED AMOUNTS. SPREAD POSITIONS MAY NOT BE LESS RISKY THAN OUTRIGHT FUTURES POSITIONS, FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND OPTIONS. TRADING FUTURES AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE ON MARGIN CARRIES A HIGH LEVEL OF RISK AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. PLEASE TRADE WITH CAPITAL YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. NO SOLICITATION IS MADE HERE FOR INDIVIDUALS TO BUY OR SELL FUTURES CONTRACTS, FOREIGN EXCHANGE OR OPTION MARKET. SOURCES ARE BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE BUT NO ASSURANCE IS MADE FOR ACCURACY. READERS ARE SOLEY RESPONSIBLE FOR HOW THEY USE THE INFORMATION AND FOR THEIR RESULTS. YOU SHOULD BE AWARE OF ALL THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH FUTURES AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND SEEK ADVICE FROM AN INDEPENDENT FINANCIAL ADVISOR IF YOU HAVE ANY DOUBTS, THE HIGH DEGREE OF LEVERAGE THAT IS OFTEN OBTAINABLE IN FUTURES AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING CAN WORK AGAINST YOU AS WELL AS FOR YOU. THE USE OF LEVERAGE CAN LEAD TO LARGE LOSSES AS WELL AS GAINS. INTERNET RISKS ; THERE ARE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH UTILIZING AN INTERNET BASED SERVICE INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, FAILURE OF HARDWARE, SOFTWARE AND INTERNET CONNECTION, FUTURESCOM EMPLOYS BACK-UP SYSTEMS AND CONTINGENCY PLANS TO MINIMIZE THE POSSIBILITY OF SYSTEM FAILURE.