Futures Trading Newsletter , Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook #496.
FuturesCom Futures Trading Newsletter Sunday March 27, 2016. SP500 and Equity Indices • Bonds • Currency Trading • Forex • Precious Metals • Energy • Grains • Livestock • Coffee • Sugar • Cocoa • Cotton. for a Free Two Week trial to our Futures Trading Newsletter see https://futurescom.com/free-trial-2
Accomplishments will prove to be a journey, not a destination” –Dwight D. Eisenhower–
Saturday March 26th 2016
3:00 AM, South Florida Beach Time
Geopolitical risks have increased a bit. There are four days to trade before the end of the first quarter.
We are light in exposure and positions. Traders should stay tuned for additional flashes and updates after the quarter and the month end. Contact our office if you need long or short term analysis for global equities, foreign exchange markets or commodities not covered today.
U.S. and global stock markets have traded choppy depending on which way the wind blows the ‘babble’ from global policy makers, next week should be no different. Janet Yellen is scheduled to speak Tuesday during market hours. Investors and traders should prepare for wide trading ranges.
Forex Markets; The U.S. dollar index remains lower on the year and on the month. Spot euro (EUR/USD) and futures remain over the 11010 to 10960 region. Resistance is near 11300 to 11360 and 11640 to 11690. Cable (GBP/USD) and British Pound futures are trading choppy and near
multi-year lows amidst constant talk about the June 23rd vote on the United Kingdom’s possible separation from the European Union. Cable has nearby support is at 13830 to 13770. Resistance is near 14390 and 14530 to 14590. USD/CAD moved up and continues to trade with high volatility.
Conversely the Canadian Dollar futures have fallen back. In Asia, the Bank of Japan has problems getting inflation to anywhere near its target. In a stunning move last week, Japan’s Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare revised January’s average wages down to unchanged from a 0.4% rise, placing wages flat for the third straight month. Thursday night Japan’s Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications reported that February consumer prices (CPI) rose by 0.3 percent on the year after showing no growth in January. The cost of food rose while prices of transportation dropped at a milder pace. Core prices year over year were flat. March consumer prices in Tokyo fell by 0.1 percent versus 2015. Tokyo’s Core CPI fell 0.3 percent, the biggest decline in about three years. The Dollar-Yen has resistance now at 11360 and 11500. Support is near 11010 to 10960. Futures traders should stay tuned for flashes in yen futures. Elsewhere, the Aussie Dollar fell apart last week and the Kiwi (New Zealand Dollar) continues to trade rangebound. China’s Manufacturing PMI data is due out Thursday evening. The spot Chinese Yuan moved over 6.51 and needs to get under 6.483 to avoid a move to 6.577 to 6.591. China’s government is likely to embark on a path of fixing or eliminating the ‘zombie’ companies from now into 2017. Some street estimates show that ‘zombies’ make up about anywhere from 10% to 20 % of the listed stocks in Chinese stock market.
Precious Metals; Gold and silver have fallen back off the recent strength and are trading affairs.
The trading ranges have increased. Copper remains up on the month and on the year.
Energies; Crude Oil continues to trade very choppy and with a wide range. Crude Oil, the products and Natural Gas remain trading affairs. Stay tuned for flashes in Energies. Grains; The USDA prospective plantings report is due out on March 31st at 12:00 PM. April can be very volatile for grain markets. Soybeans have firmed up and along with Corn are higher on the year.
Wheat has traded soft. Traders should sell July Wheat on a rally.
Stay tuned for grain flashes before and after the planting report.
Livestock; Live Cattle and summer Hog futures fell apart last week. Last week was the 91st week in a row of steer weights above year ago levels. The average weight for the week ending March 12 was 896 pounds, up 8 pounds from the week before and up 25 pounds from a year ago. The boxed beef cutout value on Friday was $226.24/cwt, down $6.05 from last week and down $24.19 versus last year.
The USDA cold storage report showed there was 491 million pounds of beef in cold storage at the end of February, 5.3% less than the end of January and 0.3% under a year ago. Total frozen stocks of red meat were down 4.7% versus a year ago. Poultry supplies in cold storage were up 9.5%, poultry offers substantial price value to consumers versus other higher priced protein. Friday’s USDA March Hogs and Pigs report showed the nation’s hog inventory was up 0.4 percent on the first day of March. The breeding herd was down a hair of 0.03 percent and ready for market hogs were up 0.4 percent. Winter farrowings were down 0.8 percent. The agency estimates that spring farrowings will be down 0.5 percent and summer farrowings down 3.5 percent. Pigs per litter during December to February were up 0.7 percent. There were fewer litters so the pig crop was down 0.2%. The market hog inventory was a little larger than guestimates ahead of the report and the breeding herd a little smaller. Farrowing intentions for June-August were 3.8 percent less than the average guesstimate. Hog weights last week were 282.9 pounds, down a half a pound from the week before and down 1.3 pounds from a year ago. There were 628 million pounds of pork in cold storage at the end of February. That was 0.5% more than the month before, but 8.4% less than a year ago, however supplies remain historically high. Stay tuned for livestock flashes and updates.
Soft Commodities; Coffee moved higher and has chopped around. Coffee is a little higher on the year. Cocoa and Sugar collapsed last week after a blistering moves to the upside. Seasonally Sugar tends to decline thru April. The long term Cocoa works remains negative. We took a loss a few weeks ago and still prefer to sell rallies in the July contracts. Cotton is trading rangebound just above multi year lows and typically acts lousy into early May.
Traders should stay tuned for additional flashes and updates. Please call the office or use the instant message system if you need more details or analysis on a specific market.
On to the Nitty Gritty.
THE SENSATIONAL STOCK AND BOND MARKET
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE Nearby support is at 17,380.00 to 17,310.00 and 17,125.00. Below that buyers should appear near
the 16,960.00 to 16,890.00 region.
Resistance should appear near 17,740.00 to 17,800.00 and the 18,080.00 to 18,220.00 region.
DOW JONES TRANSPORTS
Support should appear near 7864.00 to 7836.00 and the 7777.00 to 7763.00 region. Below that buyers should appear near 7689.00 to 7875.00 0
Nearby resistance should appear near 7939.00 to 7954.00. Beyond that sellers should appear near 8029.00 to 8044.00 and the 8194.00 to 8,220.00 region cap a rally.
JUNE E-MINI SP500
Resistance should appear at 2034.00 to 2042.00 and the 2080.00 to 2089.00 region.
Support should appear near 1996.00 to 1982.00 and the 1953.00 to 1946.00 region.
NASDAQ COMPOSITE
Resistance should appear 4845.00 to 4856.00 and the 4915.00 to 4926.00 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 5056.00 to 5067.00 and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 4717.00 to 4695.00 and the 4650.00 to 4639.00 region.
JUNE E-MINI NASDAQ 100
Support should appear near 4315.00 to 4304.00 and the 4183.00 to 4163.00 region.
Resistance is at and the 4503.00 to 4514.00 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near the 4571.00 to 4582.00 region.
JUNE E-MINI RUSSELL 2000
Resistance should appear near 1096.00 to 1101.00 and the 1130.00 to 1136.00 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 1164.00 to 1169.00
Support should appear near 1068.00 to 1058.00 and the 1036.00 to 1032.00 region. Below that buyers should appear near 1013.60 to 1010.40.
JUNE 30 YR BONDS
Resistance should appear near 164-07 and 165-07. Beyond that 166-21 should cap a rally.
Support should appear near 161-21 and 160-21 and 159-17
JUNE 10 YR NOTES
Resistance should appear near 130-07 and 131-02. Beyond that sellers should appear near 133-21.
Support should appear near 127-21 and 127-07. Below that buyers should appear near 126-21.
THE FRENZIED FOREX FRONT
JUNE DOLLAR INDEX
Resistance should appear near 9673 and the 9706 to 9737 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 9821 to 9837. Nearby support should appear near 9542 to 9526. Below that buyers should appear near 9445 to 9421 and the 9347 to 9316 region.
JUNE JAPANESE YEN
Resistance should appear near 8934 to 8964 and 9029 to 9044 region. Beyond that a test of 9140 to 9156 is likely. Support should appear near 8871 to 8856 and the 8683 to 8668 region. Below that buyers should appear near 8589 to 8560.
JUNE EURO CURRENCY
Support should appear near 11010 to 10960 and 10890, a close under augurs for a test of 10820 and eventually the 10680 to 10580 region. Resistance should appear near 11300 to 11360 and the 11640 to 11690 region. Traders can sell June at 11297 and risk a close over 11367 for three days in a row.
JUNE SWISS FRANC
Resistance should appear near 10320 to 10360 and 10580 to 10680
Support should appear near 10136 to 10104 and 10037 to 10021.
JUNE BRITISH POUND
Support should appear near 13990 and 13830 to 13770. Resistance should appear near 14210, an extended trade or close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 14390 where sellers should cap a rally. Above that resistance should appear near 14530 to 14590.
JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
Resistance should appear near 7587 to 7601 and the 7675 to 7689 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 7763 to 7777.
Support should appear near 7513 to 7487 and the 7342 to 7328 region.
JUNE AUSSIE DOLLAR Resistance should appear near the 7486 to 7513 and the 7587 to 7601 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 7675 to 7689 and cap rally.
Support should appear near 7428 to 7414 and the 7342 to 7328 region. Below that buyers should appear near 7255 to 7242. THE PRECIOUS METALS
JUNE GOLD
Resistance should appear near 1232.00 to 1238.0 and the 1268.0 to 1274.0 region.
Support should appear near 1203.00 to 1192.00 region. Below that buyers should appear near 1180.50 and 1169.0 to 1164.0. Traders with ‘ice water running through their veins’ can buy at 1169.7 for a bounce and risk 10.00 dollars initially.
MAY COPPER
Resistance should appear 22670 to 22750. Beyond that sellers should appear near the 23540 to 23700 region and a cap a rally.
Support should appear near 21850 to 21700 and the 20890 to 20800 region.
MAY SILVER
Support should appear near 1496.0 to 1489.0 region. Below that buyers should appear near 1459.0 to 1453.0.
Resistance is at 1535.0 and the 1569.0 to 1576.0 region. beyond that sellers should appear near 1642.0 to 1655.0
THE EXCITING ENERGIES
MAY CRUDE OIL
Support should appear near 3806 to 3795 and the 3743 to 3734 region. Below that buyers should appear near 3623 to 3613 and the 3563 to 3553 region.
Resistance should appear near 3982 to 3992 then 4046 to 4056. Beyond that sellers should appear near 4110 to 4120 and the 4163 to 4183 region.
JUNE CRUDE OIL
Support should appear near 3929 to 3909 and the 3867 to 3858 region. Below that buyers should appear near 3682 to 3632.
Resistance should appear near 4110 to 4120 then 4163 to 4183 and the 4238 to 4249 region.
JUNE BRENT CRUDE OIL
Support should appear near 3929 to 3909 and 3867 to 3858. Below that buyers should appear near 3806 to 3795 and 3743 to 3734.
Resistance should appear near 4120 and 4163 to 4187.Beyond that sellers should appear near 4304 to 4315 and 4370 to 4381.
MAY HEATING OIL
Support should appear near 12030 to 11920 and 11690 to 11640. Below that as test of 11380 to 11320 is likely.
Resistance should appear 12320 to 12380 and the 13040 to 13100 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 13340 to 13460 and cap a rally.
MAY UNLEADED GAS
Support should appear near 14840 and the 14590 to 14530 region. A close under is negative and augurs for a test of 14210 to 14150
Resistance should appear 15290 to 15340 and the 15690 to 15760 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 16090 to 16150 and cap rally.
Stay tuned for flashes in Crude Oil.
MAY NATURAL GAS
Support should appear near 1822 to 18080 and the 1.738 to 1.731region. Below that a test of 1.696 to 1.689 is likely and should hold. Resistance should appear near 1.902 to 1.909 and 1.946 to 1.9530. Beyond that sellers should appear near 1.982 to 1.996
THE GRANDE’ GRAINS
MAY SOYBEANS
Support should appear near 887 ¼ to 885 ¾ and the 877 ¾ to 876 ¼ region. Below that a test of
858 ¾ to 856 is likely.
Resistance should appear near 914 to 915 ¾ and the 931 ¾ to 934 ¾ region, where sellers should appear and cap a rally.
MAY SOYOIL Support should appear near 3270 to 3261 and the 3102 to 3092 region.
Resistance should appear near 3377 to 3386 and the 3425 to 3443 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 3493 to 3503.
MAY SOYMEAL
Resistance should appear near 282.0 to 282.9 and the 287.4 to 288.3 region.
Support should appear near 267.2 to 266.3 and the 262.0 to 261.2 region.
MAY CORN
Support should appear near368 ¼ to 366 ¼. Below that a test of the 356 ¼ to 355 ¼ region is likely. Resistance should appear near 373 ½ to 374 ¾ and the 385 ¾ to 386 ¾ region.
MAY WHEAT Support should appear near 458 ¼ to 457 ¼ and 444 ¾ to 442 ½ region.
Resistance should appear near 469 ½ to 471 ½ and the 484 ½ to 485 ¾ region.
Traders should sell July Wheat at 483 and risk a close over 493 for three days in a row.
THE LIVELY LIVESTOCK
APRIL CATTLE
Support should appear near the 13460 to 13340 region. Failure there is negative and augurs for a test of 13100 to 13040.
Resistance should appear near 13770 to 13830. Beyond that sellers should appear near the
14150 to 14210 region and cap a rally.
JUNE CATTLE
Support should appear 12380 to 12320. A close under augurs for a test of 12030 to 11920.
Resistance should appear near 12680 to 12740. Beyond that sellers should appear near 12890
and the 13040 to 13100 region and cap a rally.
APRIL HOGS
Resistance should appear near 7072 to 7087 and the 7142 to 7172 region.
Support should appear near 6922 to 6907, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of
6837 to 6807 and the 6752 to 6742 region.
JUNE HOGS
Resistance should appear near 8117 to 8137. Beyond that sellers should appear near
8192 to 8222 and the 8297 to 8317 region.
Support should appear near 7957 to 7932 and the 7777 to 7762 region.
THE SATISFYING SOFTS
MAY COFFEE
Resistance should appear near 12890 and the 13040 to 13100 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 13340 to 13460 and cap a rally. Support should appear near the 12680, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 12380 to 12320 and the 12030 to 11920 region.
MAY COCOA Support should appear near the 2883 to 2874 region. Below that a test of 2775 to 2758 is likely. Resistance should appear near 3036 to 3045 and the 3092 to 3102 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 3148 to 3157. MAY SUGAR Resistance is near 1609 to 1615 and 1642 to 1655. Traders can sell at 1607 and risk a close over 1657 for three days in a row. Support should appear near 1535 to 1529 and the 1459 to 1453 region. MAY COTTON Support should appear near 5577 to 5553 and the 5504 to 5492 region. Below that a test of 5356 to 5344 is likely. Resistance should appear near 5855 to 5880 and the 6023 to 6035 region, where sellers should appear and cap a rally.
Stay tuned for Flashes and Updates in all Markets
–A Ship in Harbor is Safe…But that is not what ships are built for –
Happy Trading!
Bill wil@futurescom.com
Sunday March 27, 2016 9:45 AM South Florida Beach Time
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