Futures Trading Newsletter , Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook #498.

FuturesCom Futures Trading Newsletter Sunday April  24, 2016.  SP500 and  Equity Indices • Bonds • Currency Trading • Forex • Precious Metals • Energy • Grains • Livestock • Coffee •  Sugar • Cocoa  • Cotton.  for a Free Two Week trial to our Futures Trading Newsletter  see https://futurescom.com/free-trial-2

     “In the fields of observation chance favors only the prepared mind.” – Louis Pasture-

 

Friday April 22, 2016

9:00 PM, South Florida Beach Time

The end of the month is around the corner. U.S. stock markets remain in the same broad trading range. Global geo-political risks appear to be on the upswing and interest rates remain low and in some cases less than zero.

The Federal Reserve FOMC rate announcement and statement (or lack thereof) comes out on Wednesday. Traders should remain nimble and stay tuned for flashes and updates. Contact our office if you need long or short term analysis for global equities, foreign exchange markets or commodities not covered today.

Forex Markets; Constant ‘Babble’ from all central banks around the world is now par for the course. The U.S. dollar index is now higher on the month and remains lower on the year. The German economy ministry said in its Spring Projection released Wednesday that it expects the German economy to expand ‘solidly’ this year at 1.7%, the forecast was unchanged from January. The German official also said the government expects the economy to slow to 1.5 percent GDP in 2017. The difference between 1.7 percent growth and zero is a statistical fly hair on a piece of paper and it’s not ‘solid’. Traders should be very wary of frivolous comments coming from policy makers all over the globe. They should be ashamed of themselves to make such statements to their citizens.

 

Spot euro (EUR/USD) and futures fell away from the 11360 to 11300 region. Resistance is 11640 to 11690. Support is now 11010 to 10960. (GBP/USD) and British Pound futures are still near multi-year lows. The June 23rd vote on the United Kingdom’s possible separation from the European Union is around the corner. Cable has nearby support is at 14210 to 14150 and 13830 to 13770. Resistance is near 14530 to 14590 and 14840 to 19460. USD/CAD continues to trade with high volatility and has support near 12500 and 12380 to 12320. Resistance is now 12890 and 13040 to 13100.

 

The Bank of Japan’s monetary policy meeting is on Wednesday. The policy announcement is set for 10:00 p.m. ET. Japanese corporations really have not raised wages and have been rewarded for not doing so. Ahead of the meeting, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications is scheduled to release March CPI (consumer price Index), March unemployment and household spending figures at 7:30 p.m. ET. After that the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry is scheduled to report retail sales and Industrial Production data at 7:50 p.m. ET. The Dollar-Yen has resistance at 11300 to 11360 and 11640 to 11690. Support is 11010 to 10960 and 10890.

 

The Aussie Dollar has pulled back from its recent high and the Kiwi (New Zealand Dollar) moved up to the highest level in nearly a year before falling back. The spot Chinese Yuan has support at 6.430 to 6.417. Resistance is at 6.483 to 6.509. China Railway cargos fell 9.43 percent to 788 million tons during the first quarter versus a year ago according to data from the China Railway Corp. Cargos were  3.36 billion tons in 2015, an 11.9 percent fall versus 2014. To get a sense of what is happening, shipments totaled 3.32 billion tons in 2009. The China’s government is now trying to reverse the trend away from levels seen between six and seven years ago. It’s possible China’s population growth is now shrinking and is the reason for the dramatic shift away from the one child policy…Just something to think about.

 

Precious Metals; Gold and silver rallied sharply over the last two weeks and then collapsed into the end of the week. Copper has firmed up a bit. We will look at month end trades for previous metals. Energies; Crude Oil, Crude products and Natural Gas remain trading affairs. Crude Oil and the products tend to make a high in this time frame and drift lower into June. The Grain markets rallied sharply over the last two weeks and collapsed at the end of the week.

Traders should stay tuned for flashes and updates. Fundamental updates are available during the trading day on all commodities, if you need them ask.

Livestock; Live Cattle futures fell apart and Hogs continue trade in a fairly wide range. Consider selling July and August hogs for a trade. We will continue to trade June on both sides.

 

Soft Commodities; Coffee moved up and tested the March highs and fell apart and is likely to remain weak. Sell a rally in Coffee. Sugar and Cocoa and Cotton all moved up and trading in wide ranges. On to the Nitty Gritty.                                                             

 

                                             THE SENSATIONAL STOCK AND BOND MARKET

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE Support is at 17,800.00 to 17,740.00 and 17,380.00 to 17,310.00

Resistance is at 18,080.00 to 18,220.00 then 18,400.00 and the 18,580.00 to 18,650.00 region.

 

DOW JONES TRANSPORTS

Support should appear near 7954.00 to 7939.00 and the 7777.00 to 7763.00 region.

Resistance should appear near 8194.00 to 8223.00 and the 8300.00 to 8314.00 region.

JUNE E-MINI SP500

Resistance should appear at 2126.00 to 2134.00 and the 2170.00 to 2185.00 region.

Support should appear near 2061.00 and the 2042.00 to 2034.00 region.
NASDAQ COMPOSITE

Resistance should appear 4915.00 to 4926.00 and 4973.00 to 4995.00. Beyond that sellers should appear near 5056.00 to 5067.00 and cap a rally.

Support should appear near 4785.00 to 4775.00 and the 4717.00 to 4695.00 region.

 

JUNE E-MINI NASDAQ 100

Support should appear near 4446.00 to 4425.00, a close under augurs for a test of 4381.00 to 4370 and the 4315.00 to 4304.00 region.

Resistance is at 4503.00 to 4514.00 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 4571.00 to 4582.00 region. Above that resistance is at 4639.00 to 4650.00 and should cap a rally.

Traders should go short if a close under 4423.00 occurs.
JUNE E-MINI RUSSELL 2000

Resistance should appear near 1164.00 to 1169.00 and 1192.00 to 1203.00 region.

Support should appear near 1136.00 to 1130.00 and the 1101.00 to 1096.00 region.

 

JUNE 30 YR BONDS

Resistance should appear near 163-07 and 164-07. Beyond that sellers should appear near 164-21 and 165-07.

Support should appear near 161-21 and 160-07. Below that a test of 159-07 is likely.

 

JUNE 10 YR NOTES

Resistance should appear near 130-07 and 130-21, beyond that sellers should appear near 132-07 and cap a rally.

Support should appear near 129-07 and 128-21. Below that buyers should appear near 127-21.

                                                   THE FRENZIED FOREX FRONT

JUNE DOLLAR INDEX

Resistance should appear near 9526 to 9542, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of the

9625 to 9641 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 9706 to 9738.   Support should appear near 9347 to 9316, below that a test of 9156 to 9140 is likely.

Traders should go long if a close over 9543 occurs.

JUNE JAPANESE YEN

Resistance should appear near 9000 and the 9044 to 9060 region. Traders can sell at 9057 and stay tuned for flashes. Support should appear near 8871 to 8856. Below that buyers should appear near the 8777 to 8762 region.

 

JUNE EURO CURRENCY

Support should appear near 11155 and the 11010 to 10960 region. Resistance should appear near 11300 to 11360 and 11500. Traders can sell at 11297 and risk a close over 11367 for three days in a row.
JUNE SWISS FRANC

Resistance should appear near 10320 to 10360 and 10580 to 10680.

Support should appear near 10136 to 10104 and 10037 to 10021.

 

JUNE BRITISH POUND

Support should appear near 14210 to 14150 and 13830 to 13770.   Resistance should appear near 14530 to 14590. Beyond that resistance should appear near

the 14840 to 149060 region.

 

JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR

Resistance should appear near 8029 to 8044 and the 8119 to 8134 region.

Support should appear near 7777 to 7763 and the 7689 to 7675 region.

 

JUNE AUSSIE DOLLAR Resistance should appear near the 7763 to 7777 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near

7836 to 7864 and cap rally.

Support should appear near 7601 to 7587, below that a test of 7513 to 7486 is likely.

                                          THE PRECIOUS METALS

JUNE GOLD

Resistance should appear near 1253.0 and the 1268.0 to 1274.0 region. Beyond that a test of 1304.0 to 1310.0 is likely and should bring out some sellers

Support should appear near 1217.5, failure there is negative and augurs for a test of 1203.0 to 1192.0.

JULY COPPER

Resistance should appear 23150 to 23220 and the 23540 to 23700 region.

Support should appear near 22160 to 22190 and the 21850 to 21700 region.

 

JULY SILVER

Support should appear near 1689 and 1655 to 1642. Below that a test of 1615 to 1609 is likely.

Resistance is at 1731 to 1738 then 1774 to 1780 and the 1808 to 1822 region.

 

                                                   THE EXCITING ENERGIES

JUNE CRUDE OIL

Support should appear near 4249 to 4238 and the 4314 to 4304 region. Below that a test of

4120 to 4110 is likely.

Resistance should appear near 4425 to 4446 then 4503 to 4515 and the 4571 to 4582 region.

 

JULY CRUDE OIL

Support should appear near 4314 to 4304 and 4056 to 4046 and 3992 to 3982

Resistance should appear near 4503 to 4514 then 4639 to 4650 and 4695 to 4717

BW Traders should go short if a close under 4367 occurs

 

JULY BRENT CRUDE OIL

Support should appear near 4446 to 4425 and 4381 to 4370. Below that a few buyers should appear near 4249 to 4238 and the 4120 to 4110 region.

Resistance should appear near 4571 to 4582 and the 4845 to 4856 region.

 

JUNE HEATING OIL

Support should appear near 13100 to 13040 and 12030 to 11920. Below that as test of 11690 to 11640 is likely.

Resistance should appear 13340 to 13460 and the 13770 to 13830 region.

 

JUNE UNLEADED GAS

Support should appear near 15760 to 15690 then 15350 to 15210 and the 14960 to 14840 region.

Resistance should appear 16090 to 16150 then 16420 to 16550 and the 16890 to 16960 region.

 

JUNE NATURAL GAS

Support should appear near 2185 to 2170 and the 2089 to 2080 region.

Resistance should appear near 2354 to 2370 and the 2411 to 2419 region.

 

 

 

 

                                               THE GRANDE’ GRAINS

 

JULY SOYBEANS

Support should appear near 973 ¾ to 970 ¾. Below that a test of 934 ¾ to 931 ¾ is likely.

Resistance should appear near 1002 ¼ to 1003 ¾ and the 1010 to 1013 ¾ region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 1032 to 1036 and 1058 to 1068.

 

JULY SOYOIL Support should appear near 3386 to 3377, a close under augurs for a test of 3328 to 3319 and the 3270 to 3261 region.

Resistance should appear near 3493 to 3503 and the 3553 to 3563 region and a cap a rally.
JULY SOYMEAL

Resistance should appear near 331.9 to 332.8 and the 337.7 to 338.6 region.

Support should appear near 310.2 to 309.2 and the 299.0 to 297.2 region.

 

JULY CORN

Support should appear near 368 ¼ to 366 ¼ and the 356 ¼ to 355 ¼ region. Under that buyers should appear near 338 ¾ to 337 ¾.

Resistance should appear near 379 ½ to 380 ¾ and the 390 ¾ to 392 ¾ region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 404 ¾ to 405 ¾ and 411 to 412.

JULY WHEAT Support should appear near 458 ¼ to 457 ¼ and 444 ¾ to 442 ½ region. Below that a test of 431 ½ to 430 ¼ is likely.

Resistance should appear near 484 ½ to 485 ¾ and 497 ¼ to 499 ½. Sell rallies.                                                                                                                      

 

 

 

 

 

                                                   THE LIVELY LIVESTOCK  

JUNE CATTLE

Support should appear 11360 to 11300 and 11010 to 10960. A close under augurs for a test of 10680 to 10580.

Resistance should appear near 11640 to 11690 and the 11920 to 12030 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near the 12320 to 2380 and cap a rally.

 

AUGUST CATTLE

Support should appear 11010 to 1060 and the 10680 to 10580 region. Below that a test of 10360 to 10320 is likely.

Resistance should appear near 11300 to 11380 and the 116490 to 11690 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near the 11920 to 12030 region.
JUNE HOGS

Resistance should appear near 8027 to 8047 and the 8117 to 8137 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 8192 to 8222 region.

Support should appear near the 7777 to 7762 region. Below that a test of 7342 to 7327 is likely

Traders should go short July if a close under 7827 occurs.                                                              

AUGUST HOGS

Resistance should appear near 8027 to 8047 and the 8117 to 8137 region.

Support should appear near 7867 to 7837 and the 7777 to 7762 region.                                                                

 

                                                    THE SATISFYING SOFTS

JULY COFFEE

Resistance should appear near 12680 to 12740 and 12890. Beyond that sellers should appear near 13040 to 13100 and cap a rally. Traders can sell at 12675 and hold for lower prices. Support should appear near the 12030 to 11920 region. Below that a test of 11690 to 11640 is likely.

JULY COCOA Support should appear near 3045 to 3036 and the 2990 to 2972 region. Resistance should appear near 3194 to 3223 and the 3261 to 3270 region.

JULY SUGAR Resistance is near 1609 to 1615 and the 1642 to 1655 region. Support should appear near 1459 to 1453 and 1383 to 1377

JULY COTTON Support should appear near 6035 to 6023 the 5880 to 5855 region.    Resistance should appear near 6659 to 6672 and 6809 to 6836 region.

             Stay tuned for Flashes and Updates in all Markets

–A Ship in Harbor is Safe…But that is not what ships are built for –

 

Happy Trading!

Bill wil@futurescom.com

Sunday April 24, 2016 12:30 PM South Florida Beach Time

 

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