FuturesCom Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook # 417 March 10 2013 SP500 and Equity Indices • Bonds • Currency Trading • Forex • Precious Metals • Energy • Grains • Livestock • Coffee • Sugar • Cocoa • Cotton. Free Two Week Trial see https://futurescom.com/free-trial-2
“We can easily forgive a child who is afraid of the dark.
The real tragedy of life is when men are afraid of the light”- Plato –
Saturday March 09, 2013
11:30 PM South Florida Beach Time
US Stocks closed better on Friday, the Dow Industrials and Transports both closed Friday near or at all time high settlements. Traders should look for more news-driven trading and expanded ranges during the rest of the month. Traders should stay tuned for Flashes along with updates in all markets.
Sell a rally in June Bonds to re-establish shorts. Bonds are oversold and can bounce this week. Aussie acts lousy, rallies should be sold. Forex traders should establish shorts on rallies if able and Sell rallies to add in preparation for a decline. Yen remains long term bearish, but it can firm up bit. Sell a rally in futures and buy Dollar / Yen on a dip. Canuck can firm a bit; aggressive traders may want to play both sides of the Canuck. Seasonally Canadian dollar can rally into the end of the month. However the long-side should be short term maybe a week or two if it holds. The rally may be muted and selling a rally to re-establish a short posture is preferred as lower prices appear to be in front of the Canadian Dollar not behind it. Sell a rally in Swiss the higher the better. Look for a range bound to lower Euro, the 13100 to 13040 region has not held and prints of 12740 to 12680 on the downside appears inevitable. Stay tuned for Forex Flashes.
Silver and gold act sloppy, typically buying at the end of March on weakness should yield some strength into early to the middle of April, if for no other reason than short covering. Silver should begin to act better first.
Energies are weak, however strength into April and May should not be ruled out. The longs in April Crude are under water. Buy June to add, exit the April on Strength and use MAY to trade. Brent Crude can typically hold going into April. Unleaded gas acted better late in the week and trading from the long side for a rally into April and May is becoming apparent.
Soybeans and products and its products typically firm into March and early April. Buy Soymeal for spring rally into June. We are friendly June hogs for a rally into late April and May, however it’s a bit soon to tell if we are just bouncing from an oversold condition for a mid -month rally in a bear market or something that can last.. June should firm against August from 50 to 100 under to 50 to 100 over. .
A trading range is likely. Stay tuned for Livestock flashes.
Selling a sharp rally in Coffee should yield some lower prices over the next three weeks as Coffee typically makes a high point into the Ides of March. Buy a dip in cotton.
Stay tuned for additional Flashes and updates for All Markets. On to the Nitty Gritty
THE SENSATIONAL STOCK AND BOND MARKET
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE
Support should appear near 14,370.00 and the 14,210.00 to 14150.00 region. Below that 13,830.00 to 13,770.00 should hold.
Resistance remains near the 14,530.00 to 14,590.00 region. Beyond that a test of 14,840.00 to 14.960.00 is likely and should cap a rally
JUNE E-MINI SP500
Resistance should appear 1552.00 and the 1569.00 to 1576.00 region which should cap a rally.
Traders can sell at 1568.75 for a trade and risk 12 points. A close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 1609.00 to 1615.00.
Support should appear near 1535.00 to 1529.00 and 1512.50. Traders can buy at 1513.00 and risk a close under 1511.00 for three days in a row. Below that buyers should appear near the 1496.00 to 1484.00 region… Traders can buy at 1497.00 and hold for higher prices.
NASDAQ COMPOSITE
Resistance should appear near 3261.00 to 3270.00 and the 3319.00 to 3328.00 region
Support should appear near 3213 to 3194 and the 3157.00 to 3148.00 region. Below that buyers should appear near 3102.00 to 3092.00 and the 3045.00 to 3036.00 region which should contain any decline.
JUNE E-MINI NASDAQ 100
Support should appear near 2775.00 to 2758.00… Below that buyers should appear near the 2724.00 to 2716 region. Traders can buy at 2728 and risk a close under 2715 for three days in a row. Below that buyers should appear near 2672.00 to 2663 and contain a decline.
Resistance should appear near 2820.00 to 2829.00, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of
2874.00 to 2883.00.
JUNE E-MINI RUSSELL 2000
Resistance should appear near the 942.90 to 944.50 and 952.60 to 954.30. Beyond that a test of
970.60 to 973.70 is more likely to occur than not.
Support should appear near 934.70 to 931.60 and 923.70. Below that buyers should appear near 915.60 to 914.00 and the 906.00 to 904.40 region. Traders can buy at 915.90 and hold for higher prices.
JUNE 30 YR BOND
Resistance should appear near 141-07 and 142-07. Beyond that sellers should appear near 142-21 and 143-07.Beyond that sellers should appear near 143-21. Traders can sell at 143-17 and risk a close over 143-27 for three days in a row.
Support should appear near 139-21 and 139-07. Below that a test of 138-21 and 138-07 is likely.
JUNE 10 YR NOTE
Resistance should appear near 131-07 and 131-21… Beyond that sellers should appear near 132-07 and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 130-07 and 129-21, failure there is negative and augurs for a test of
129-07 and eventually 128-21
THE FRENZIED FOREX FRONT
JUNE DOLLAR INDEX
Resistance should appear near the 8300 to 8314 region. A close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 8391 to 8406.
Support should appear near 8223 to 8194 and the 8134 to 8119 region.
JUNE JAPANESE YEN
Resistance should appear near 10470. Aggressive Traders can sell at 10467 and hold for lower prices and stay tuned for flashes. Beyond that sellers should appear near 10580 to 10680… Traders can sell at 10577 and risk a close over 10687 for three days in a row.
Support should appear near the 10360 to 10320 region. A close under is negative and augurs for a test of 10136 to 10104… Traders should go short if a close under 10317 occurs.
JUNE EURO CURRENCY
Support should appear near 12967 and 12890. Below that a test of 12740 to 12680 is likely.
Resistance should appear near 13040 to 13100 and 13155. Beyond that sellers should appear near 13220. Traders can sell at 13037 and hold for lower prices.
JUNE SWISS FRANC
Resistance should appear near 10580 to 10630 and 10680. Traders can sell at 10577 and hold for lower prices.
Support should appear near 10470 a close under is negative and augurs for as test the 10360 to 10320 region. Traders should go short if a close under 10467 occurs.
JUNE BRITISH POUND
Support should appear near 14840, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of the 14590 to 14530 region.
Resistance should appear near resistance should appear near 15125 and the 15290 to 15350 region.
JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
Resistance should appear near 9706 to 9737 and 9779. Beyond that sellers should appear near 9821 to 9837. Traders can sell at 9821 and hold for lower prices. Risk a close over 9887 for three days in a row. Beyond that sellers should appear near 9921 to 9937.
Support should appear near 9641 to 9425. Below that a test of 9542 to 9526 is likely. Under that buyers should appear near 9445 to 9429.
JUNE AUSSIE DOLLAR
Resistance should appear near 10185 and 10237. Beyond that sellers should appear near 10320 to 13060. Traders can sell at 10317 and hold for lower prices.
Support should appear near the 10136 to 10104 region. Below that a test of 10037 to 10021 is likely.
THE PRECIOUS METALS
APRIL GOLD
Resistance should appear near 1592.5.Beyond that sellers should appear near 1609 to 1615 and the 1642 to 1655 region. .
Support is near 1576 to 1569, below that a test of 1552 and the 1535 to 1529 region is likely.
Below that buyers should appear near the 1496 to 1484 region and contain a decline.
MAY COPPER
Resistance should appear near 35530 to 35630 and the 36130 to 36230 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 36630 to 36820 and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 35030 to 34930 and the 34430 to 34250 region. Below that a test of the
33860 to 33770 region is likely to occur.
MAY SILVER
Resistance should appear near 2928 to 2937 and the 2972 to 2990 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 3036 to 3045 and the 3092 to 3102 region, which should cap a rally.
Support is at 2829 to 2820 and the 2724 to 2716 region. Below that buyers should appear near 2568 to 2552.
THE EXCITING ENERGIES
MAY CRUDE OIL
Support should appear near 9237 and the 9156 to 9140 region which should hold. Below that buyers should appear near 9060 to 9044.
Resistance should appear near 9316 to 9347, a close over is friendly and augurs for as test of the 9526 to 9542 region and eventually the 9706 to 9737 region.
APRIL CRUDE OIL
Support should appear near 9156 to 9140 and 9100. Below that buyers should appear near 9060 to 9044 which should contain declines.
Resistance should appear near 9316 to 9347 and the 9525 to 9542 region.
APRIL HEATING OIL
Support should appear near 29370 to 29280 and the 28830 to 28740 region. Below that buyers should appear near 27750 to 27580.
Resistance should appear near 30360 to 30450 and the 30920 to 31020 region. Beyond that a test of 31940 to 32130 is likely.
APRIL UNLEADED GAS
Support should appear near 31570 to 31480. Traders can buy at 31650 and hold for higher prices.
Below that buyers should appear near 31020 to 30920 and the 30450 to 30360 region.
Resistance should appear 32610 to 32700 and the 33190 to 33280 region. Beyond that a test of the 34250 to 34450 region is likely.
APRIL NATURAL GAS
Resistance should appear at 3613 to 3623 and the 3663 to 3682 region. Beyond that as test of 3663 to 3682 is likely. Closing over 36820 is friendly and augurs for a test of 3858 to 3867
Support should appear near 3563 to 3553 and 3443 to 3425, below that 3328 to 3319 should hold.
THE GRANDE’ GRAINS
MAY SOYBEANS
Support should appear near 1459 to 1453 and 1437 ½. Below that buyers should appear near 1421 to 1415 and 1399.
Resistance should appear near the 1484 to 1496 region. Beyond that a trade towards the 1529 to 1535 region is likely to occur.
MAY SOYOIL
Resistance should appear near 5056 to 5067, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 5127 to 5139 and the 5200 to 5211 region, which should cap a rally.
Support should appear near 5027 and the 4995 to 4973 region. Below that buyers should appear near 4926 to 4915.
MAY SOYMEAL
Resistance should appear near 437.0 to 438.1 and 442.5 to 444.6. A close over is friendly and augurs for a test of the 450.3 to 451.4.
Support should appear near 431.5 to 430.4 and 424.9 to 423.8. Below that buyers should appear near
418.3 to 416.3 and contain a decline. Traders can buy at 418.5 and hold for higher prices. Initially plan on risking a close under 415.9 for three days in a row
MAY CORN
Support should appear 700 ¼ to 699 and the 683 ¾ to 680 ¼ region. Below that buyers should appear near 675 ½ to 674 ¾.
Resistance should appear near 714 ¼ to 717, beyond that sellers should appear near 732 ¾ to 734 ½ and the 741 ½ to 742 ¾ region.
MAY WHEAT
Resistance should appear near 699 to 700 ¼ and the 707 ½ to 708 ¾ region. Above that sellers should appear near 724 ¼ to 725 ½.
Support should appear near 691 ¾ to 690 ¾ and 683 ¾ to 680 ¾, below that a test of 675 ½ to 674 ¼ is likely. Under that buyers should appear near 667 1/4 to 665 ¾ and contain a decline.
THE LIVELY LIVESTOCK
APRIL CATTLE
Support should appear near the 12740 to 12680 region. Below that buyers should appear near 12537.
Resistance should appear 12887 and the 13040 to 13100 region.
JUNE CATTLE
Support should appear near 12317 and the 12030 to 11920 region which should hold.
Resistance should appear near 12380, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 12527 and the 12680 to 12740 region.
APRIL HOGS
Support should appear near 8192 and the 8137 to 8117 region. Below that buyers should appear near
8047 to 8027 and the 7957 to 7937 region.
Resistance should appear near 8227 and the 8300 to 8317. A close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 8392 to 8407 and the 8482 to 8502 region, which should cap a rally.
JUNE HOGS
Support should appear near 9162 to 9142 then 9100 and the 9067 to 9047 region. Under that buyers should appear near 8967 to 8937.
Resistance should appear near 9237 and the 9307 to 9317 region. Beyond that sellers should appear
Near 9427 to 9447.
Stay tuned for Livestock flashes
THE SATISFYING SOFTS
MAY COFFEE
Support should appear near 14210 to 14150 and 13830 to 13770.
Resistance should appear near 14530 to 14590 and the 14840 to 14960 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 15290 to 15350. Traders can sell at 15270 for a turn lower and risk a close over 15400 for three days in a row.
MAY COCOA
Resistance should appear near 2170 to 2185 and the 2267 to 2275 region.
Support should appear near 2089 to 2080 and the 2042 to 2034 region.
MAY SUGAR
Resistance is near 1902 to 1909 and the 1946 to 1953 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near
1982 to 1996.
Support should appear near 1865 to 1858 and 1822 to 1808. Below that buyers should appear near 1780 to 1774 and the 1738 to 1731 region.
MAY COTTON
Support should appear near 8589 to 8560 and the 8499 to 8484 region. Below that buyers should appear near 8406 to 8391 and the 8314 to 8300 region. Traders can buy at 8407 for a bounce and risk a close under 8385 for three days in a row.
Resistance is near 8762 to 8777 and 8857 to 8872… Beyond that a test of 8934 to 8964 and beyond towards 9044 to 9060 is likely to occur.
Stay tuned for Flashes and Updates in all Markets
–A Ship in Harbor is Safe…But that is not what ships are built for –
Happy Trading!
Bill wil@futurescom.com
Sunday March 10, 2013
2:15 PM South Florida Beach Time
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FuturesCom Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook # 417 Sunday March 10, 2013 Equity Indices – Treasuries – Currency Trading – Forex – Precious Metals – Energy – Grains – Livestock – Softs Comments
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