FuturesCom Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook # 415 Sunday February 10 2013 SP500 and Equity Indices • Bonds • Currency Trading • Forex • Precious Metals • Energy • Grains • Livestock • Coffee • Sugar • Cocoa • Cotton. Free Two Week Trial see https://futurescom.com/free-trial-2
“Among the hazards of speculation the happening of the unexpected – I might even say the unexpectable – ranks high. There are certain chances that the most prudent man is justified in taking – chances that he must take if he wishes to be more than a mercantile mollusk–” Reminiscences of a Stock operator.
Saturday February 09, 2013
10:00 PM South Florida Beach Time
Traders should stay tuned for Flashes along with Updates in all markets.
Stocks and Bonds; Selling June 30 year bonds Near Valentine’s day and exiting after the 3rd week of April has made money more often than not over the last 20 to 30 years, considering the recent weakness in 30 Yr. Bond futures traders should look to sell June Bonds on a mid-month rally. Conversely the SP500 tends to rise into mid-March, Aggressive traders should note the NASDAQ can remain under pressure during early February and traders should respect that. However those who were looking for extended weakness are not getting it. If selling for a trade, then sell a rally. Long term patterns in some Indices such as Dow Transports and the Russell 2000 are breaking out and selling weakness is not working.
Forex; the swift news driven Forex trading will likely persist as the babble brigade of finance ministers around the world meet during the rest of the month. Nearby, this week can be soft for Yen futures and we have no desire to be long Yen for more than a bounce and will maintain short futures and long the USD/JPY. Bear markets tend to have a brief mid-month rally and end the month in a bad way and month end is still a bit in front of us.
Selling March Euro futures during Mid-February and Exiting near months end has tended to be profitable. Toppy action should occur near 13770 to 13830 and may have already done so. Euro support resides at 13340 and if it holds, we would sell a rally for a trade only, if 13340 fails traders should expect nearby weakness. Traders should note; the Euro is higher from year end and that’s friendly. However it can test those levels repeatedly and normally does not sustain a low until spring and a range bound market is likely. The long March Dollar position was sold into strength and the dollar will be considered it a trading affair now. Typically the Canadian dollar weakens versus the dollar during February and into very early March. Friday’s Canadian Trade Figures were deemed negative and it’s possible the selling pressure will continue over next two weeks. If the data is perceived to be a trend then it is very possible a longer term downtrend versus the US Dollar may ensue and dips in USD/CAD can be bought.
Cable and Aussie bounced late last week and can bounce more. However avoiding the long side for more than a trade is recommended as it appears that lower prices are ahead not behind. Sell a rally in Aussie and Cable and stay tuned for Forex Flashes.
Precious Metals; Silver made its 2012 high in the last week of February, if Silver takes out the February highs in March higher prices are likely . Until then silver appears to be a trading affair… It also means that for any longer term trade March Silver is not the vehicle, trades should be done in the spot market or May contract to avoid noise and having to roll regardless of what side of the market you prefer. Short term trades can be done in March, we will roll analysis to May over the next week or so..Gold remains range bound, trade the range… Copper acts well. Buy a dip.
Energies; Crude Oil is higher on the year even though supply remains abundant. Use weakness to buy a dip if one occurs and expect a more range-bound trade this week. Brent Crude appears to be heading higher, nearby resistance is at 11920 to 12030 beyond that a test of 12320 to 12380 is likely. Support lies just below now at 11690 to 11620 and 11360 to 11320. Unleaded and Heating Oil act well and dips should be bought.
Softs and Livestock; Buy May Cotton or July Cotton on a pullback and be long. U.S. farmers are expected to plant 9.01 million acres which is a 27 % decrease. Production is expected to fall 24%; the tighter cotton supply could support prices. Cocoa tends to rise into late February; traders can buy for a trade higher. Coffee and Sugar remain down on the year are still sloppy and rallies are not sustaining themselves. Friday’s action was poor, however they closed mixed to higher on the day and a mid-month bounce is likely. Livestock Markets all closed badly on Friday. Stay tuned for Livestock Flashes and reports, along with Flashes Updates in all markets.
On to the Nitty Gritty…
THE SENSATIONAL STOCK AND BOND MARKET
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE
Support remains near 13,830.00 to 13,770.00. Below that 13,460.00 to 13,340.00 should hold.
Resistance should appear near the 14,150.00 to 14,210.00 region which should cap an early rally.
A close over is friendly and augurs for a test of the 14,380.00
MARCH E-MINI SP500
Resistance should appear the 1529.00 to 1535.00 region. Aggressive traders can sell at 1528.75 and risk 10 points. Beyond that a test of 1552.00 is likely. Trade accordingly.
Support should appear near 1496.00 to 1484.00 and should hold, below that, buyers should appear near 1471.50 and the 1459.00 to 1453.00 region and contain a decline. Traders can buy at 1471.75 for a bounce and risk and risk a close under 1467.00.
NASDAQ COMPOSITE
Resistance should appear near 3194.00 to 3213.00 where sellers should appear and cap a rally. A close over is friendly and augurs for a test of the 3261.00 to 3270.00 region.
Support should appear near 3157.00 to 3148.00 and the 3102.00 to 3092.00 region. Below that buyers should appear near 3045.00 to 3036.00 and contain a decline.
MARCH E-MINI NASDAQ 100
Support should appear near 2741.00 and the 2724.00 to 2716.00 region. Below that 2672.00 to 2663.00 should hold. Traders can buy at 2727 and hold for higher prices, risk a close under 2714 for three days in a row.
Resistance should appear near 2820.00 to 2829.00 and the 2874.00 to 2883.00 region.
MARCH E-MINI RUSSELL 2000
Resistance should appear near the 914.0 to 915.60 region a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 923.70 and the 931.60 to 934.70 region.
Support should appear near 906.00 to 904.40 and the 896.40 to 893.40 region. Below that buyers should appear near 887.10 to 885.60.
JUNE 30 YR BOND
Resistance should appear near 142-21 then 143-07 and 144-21. Beyond that sellers should appear near 145-07 and should cap a rally. Traders can sell at 145-05 and risk a close over 145-23. For three days in a row.
Support should appear near 141-21 below that buyers should appear near 141-07 then 140-21 and 139-21.
JUNE 10 YR NOTE
Resistance should appear near 131-07 and 131-21beyond that 132-21 should cap a rally.
Support should appear near 130-07 below support should appear near 129-21 and 129-07 which should hold for now.
THE FRENZIED FOREX FRONT
MARCH DOLLAR INDEX
Resistance should appear near 8029 to 8044, beyond that a test of 8119 to 8134 is likely.
Support should appear near 7991 and the 7954 to 7939 region. Below that buyers should appear near 7902 and the 7864 to 7834 region.
MARCH JAPANESE YEN
Resistance should appear near 10820 and the 10960 to 11010 region. Above that sellers should appear near 11155.
Support should appear near 10750, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of the 10680 to 10580 region, below that a test of 10470 and the 10360 to 10320 region is likely.
MARCH EURO CURRENCY
Support should appear near 13340, a close under is negative and augurs for an eventual test of 13220 and the 13100 to 13040 region. Traders can buy at 13110 and risk a close under 13037.
Resistance should appear near 13460 and 13537, beyond that sellers should appear near 13615 and the13770 to 13830 region which should cap a rally. Traders can sell at 13613 and risk 50 points.
MARCH SWISS FRANC
Resistance should appear near 10960 to 11010 and 11155. Traders can sell at 10957 and hold for lower prices.
Support should appear near 10822, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 10750 and the 10680 to 10580 region.
MARCH BRITISH POUND
Support should appear near the 15760 to 15690 region, a close under is negative and augurs for an eventual test of the 15525 and the 15350 to 15290 region.
Resistance should appear near 15847 and 15922. Traders can sell at 15927 and risk a close over 15957 for three days in a row. Beyond that sellers should appear near the 16090 to 16160 region.
MARCH CANADIAN DOLLAR
Resistance should appear near the 10021 to 10037 region which should cap a rally. Beyond that sellers should appear near 10079 and the 10104 to 10136 region.
Support should appear near 9937 to 9921, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 9837 to 9821 and the 9737 to 9706 region
MARCH AUSSIE DOLLAR
Resistance should appear near 10320 to 10360 and 10415. Beyond that sellers should appear near 10470 and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 10185 and the 10136 to 10104 region. Below that a test of 10037 to 10021 is likely.
THE PRECIOUS METALS
APRIL GOLD
Resistance should appear near 1689 to 1696 and the 1731 to 1738 region.
Support is near 1655 to 1642 and the 1615 to 1609 region.
Traders should go long if a close over 1697.1 occurs.
MARCH COPPER
Resistance should appear near 37950 to 38060, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 38580 to 386.70.
Support should appear near 37450 to 37340 and the 36820 to 36630 region. Traders can buy at 368.30 and risk a close under 365.90 for three days in a row. Below that buyers should appear near
362.30 to 361.30 and contain a decline.
MARCH SILVER
Resistance should appear near 3148 to 3157 and the 3194 to 3213 region. A close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 3261 to 3270 and the 3319 to 3328 region.
Support is at 3102 to 3092 then 3045 to 3036 and the 2992 to 2972 region. Below that buyers should appear near the 2937 to 2928 region.
THE EXCITING ENERGIES
APRIL CRUDE OIL
Support should appear near 9542 to 9526 and the 9445 to 9429 region. Below that buyers should appear near 9347 to 9316. Traders can buy at 9487 and hold for higher prices.
Resistance should appear near the 9706 to 9737 region. Beyond that a test of 9921 to 9937 is likely.
Traders should go long if a close over 9741 occurs
MARCH HEATING OIL
Support should appear near 32130 to 31940 and 31570 to 31480, below that buyers should appear near 31020 to 30920. Traders can buy at 31570 for a bounce and initially risk a close under 30910 for three days in a row.
Resistance should appear near 32610 to 32700, beyond that a test of 33190 to 33280 and the 33770 to 33860 region is likely.
MARCH UNLEADED GAS
Support should appear near 30450 to 30360 and the 29900 to 29720 region. Traders can buy at 29950 and hold for higher prices, risk a close under 29710 for three days in a row. Below that buyers should appear near 29370 to 29280.
Resistance should appear 30920 to 31020 and the 31480 to 31570 region, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 31940 to 32130. Beyond that sellers should appear near 32610 to 32700 and the 33190 to 33280 region.
MARCH NATURAL GAS
Resistance should appear at 33190 to 33280 and the 34250 to 34430 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near the 3613 to 3623 region.
Support should appear near 3157 to 3148 and the 2990 to 2972 region.
THE GRANDE’ GRAINS
MARCH SOYBEANS
Support should appear near 1437 and the 1421.0 to 1415.0 region. Below that buyers should appear near 1383.0 to 1377.00
Resistance should appear near 1453 to 1459 and 1471 ½, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of the 1484 to 1496 region.
MAY SOYBEANS
Support should appear near 1421.0 to 1415.0 and 1399.Traders can buy at 1399 and hold for higher prices. Below that buyers should appear near the 1383.0 to 1377.0 region.
Resistance should appear near 1437 and the 1453 to 1459 region.
MARCH SOYOIL
Resistance should appear near 5200 to 5211, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of
5259 to 5282 , beyond that 5344 to 5356 should cap a rally
Support should appear near 5139 to 5127 and the 5067 to 5056 region, below that buyers should appear near 4995 to 4973..
MARCH SOYMEAL
Resistance should appear near 423.8 to 424.9 and the 430.40 to 431.50 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 437.0 to 438.1 and the 442.5 to 444.6 region.
Support should appear near 418.3 to 416.3 and the 412.0 to 411.0 region.
MARCH CORN
Support should appear 700 3/3 to 699 and the 683 33/4 to 680 ¾.region. Below that buyers should appear near 675 ½ to 674 ¾
Resistance should appear near 714 to 717 ¾ and the 732 ¾ to 734 ¼ region, which should cap a rally.
Traders can sell at 717 ¾ and risk 10 cents.
MARCH WHEAT
Resistance should appear near 758 ¾ to 760 ½ and the 767 ½ to 768 ¾ region 776 ¼ to 777 ¾. Beyond that sellers should appear near 776 ¼ to 777 ¾ and 802 ¾ to 804 ½.
Support should appear near 751 ¼ to 748 ¾ and the 742 ¾ to 741 ½ region. Below that buyers should appear near the 734 ¼ to 732 ¾ region. Traders can buy at 744 and risk a close under 731 ¾ for three days in a row. Stay tuned for Grain Flashes
THE LIVELY LIVESTOCK
APRIL CATTLE
Support should appear near 12890, below that buyers should appear near 12740 to 12680
Resistance should appear 13040 to 13100, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 13237 and the 13340 to 13460 region.
JUNE CATTLE
Support should appear near 12530 and the 12380 to 12320 region.
Resistance should appear near 12680 to 12740. A close over is friendly and augurs for a test of
12890 and the 13040 to 13100 region.
APRIL HOGS
Support should appear near 8592 to 8562 and the 8502 to 8482 region. Below that buyers should appear near 8407 to 8392
Resistance should appear near 8667 to 8682 and the 8762 to 8777 region. Traders can sell at 8762 and risk a close over 8787 for three days in a row.
Sell an early rally
JUNE HOGS
Support should appear near 9347 to 9317 and the 9157 to 9137 region.
Resistance should appear near 9527 to 9542 and the 9707 to 9737 region.
THE SATISFYING SOFTS
MAY COFFEE
Support should appear near 14210 to 14150 and 13830 to 13770.
Resistance should appear near 14530 to 14590 and the 14840 to 14960 region.
MAY COCOA
Resistance should appear near 2219 to 2226 and 2267 to 2275.
Beyond that a test of 2315 to 2322 is likely.
Support should appear near 2226 to 2219 and the 2185 to 2170 region. Traders can buy at 2205 and risk a close under 2122 for three days in a row. Below that 2134 to 2126 should hold.
Trade Accordingly
MAY SUGAR
Resistance is near 1858 to 1865 and the 1902 to 1909 region.
Support should appear near 1822 to 1807 and 1780 to 1774
MAY COTTON
Support should appear near 8317 8300 and the 8223 to 8194 region. Aggressive traders can buy at 8225 and hold for higher prices. Below that buyers should appear near 8134 to 8119 and the 8044 to 8029 region. Traders can buy at 8045 and risk a close under 8020 for three days in a row.
Resistance is near 8391 to 8407 a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 8484 to 8499 and eventually the 8668 to 8683 region. .
Stay tuned for Flashes and Updates in all Markets
–A Ship in Harbor is Safe…But that is not what ships are built for —
Happy Trading!
Bill wil@futurescom.com
Sunday February 10, 2013
3:25 PM South Florida Beach Time
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FuturesCom Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook # 415 Sunday February 10, 2013 Equity Indices – Treasuries – Currency Trading – Forex – Precious Metals – Energy – Grains – Livestock – Softs Comments
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