FuturesCom Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook # 458 Saturday October 4, 2014. SP500 and Equity Indices • Bonds • Currency Trading • Forex • Precious Metals • Energy • Grains • Livestock • Coffee • Sugar • Cocoa • Cotton. Free Two Week Trial see https://futurescom.com/free-trial-2
“Our greatest weakness lies in giving up. The most certain way to succeed is always to try just one more time.” –Thomas A. Edison–
Friday October 03, 2014
5:00 AM, South Florida Beach Time.
Traders should stay nimble and stay tuned for flashes. Geopolitical tensions remain elevated but are stable. Investors and traders should continue to expect constant babble from a variety of government leaders and finance representatives.
U.S Stock Indices are now mixed on the year. Interest rates remain at or near zero. Long term support for the Dow Jones Industrial Average remains below the prevailing recent trading ranges, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is essentially a hair above unchanged on the year. The Nasdaq acts a bit sloppy after recently reaching the close of the month it made all-time highs. The Russell 2000 acts lousy and is lower on the year. The Dow Jones Transports act well and are near all-time highs and volatility has increased.
Global markets are mixed to weak. The U.K FTSE 100 is rolling over on the monthly charts and needs to be watched, this can last for a while if it continues.
The yearly work remains positive for the Dow and SP500 however support is well below the market. Traders should continue to use the volatility to trade the markets
Forex Markets; The euro remains lower on the year. Longer term downside targets are still below the current levels. Sell rallies in the Euro. Cable is lower on the year and acts lousy. The USD/CAD pushed through the resistance and should be bought on dips. Traders should look for a dip against 11010 to 10960 to buy. Over the longer term, USD/CAD targets are higher. The Dollar-Yen has pushed thru to the upside toward the 10960 to 11010 target. Beyond that a test 11300 to 11360 is possible. Failure of 10960 to 11010 indicates a test of 10820. Support is near 10680 to 10580, look for a buy in that area. We remain negative on the Aussie and Kiwi. Downside targets are lower. However the Aussie does have a tendency to firm into late October and that may or may not happen. The Aussie is down on the year and the Kiwi is also lower. Both are trading affairs now, sell rallies.
Japanese stock markets are lower on the year and rates remain at essentially zero in Japan as QE for this decade progresses. China growth remains sloppy. Increased tensions in that region remain unfavorable for companies doing business. Nothing has changed in Asia it has gotten worse. Therefore look for stock market supporting measures from governments in that region.
Analysis for overseas equity and foreign exchange markets are available upon request. For more detailed information or a country by county economic analysis for trading or hedging programs please call or email a request.
Precious Metals and Energy; Gold and Silver remain weak and are at the lower end of the range we mentioned in previous newsletters. Nothing has changed. Copper is still range bound. WTI Crude Oil, Brent Crude and the products are weak and breaking down. Unleaded Gas is near the low end of the range for the last four years and has three years of price on top of the market and is now prone to a major collapse if nothing changes and so far it has not. Economic benefits to the consumer will be more pronounced if unleaded futures fall into the 1.80 region and it appears that’s where unleaded futures are going. However the street will likely deem that type of move as lack of global growth. Natural Gas prices are still range bound and tend to get soft ahead of the winter weather season.
Grain supplies remain ample. Traders should sell rallies in January beans for a trade. Wheat acts badly, while typically wheat rises into October and November that type of action has yet to show itself in any meaningful way. Corn is still down near the highs of 2004 and is well under the highs of 2012. Corn reached nearby downside targets and remains a trading affair at best. Livestock markets are a day to day trading affair. Stay tuned for Flashes.
Coffee rallied and acts better and now appears pricey. Sugar has not held for more than a brief period. Cotton is bouncing around and acts better only after it fell apart. The Cocoa supply demand outlook has likely turned and supply may be exceeding demand. The long term upside targets in Cocoa have been met. Cocoa is a trading affair now and is subject to Ebola concerns
Onto the nitty-gritty
THE SENSATIONAL STOCK AND BOND MARKET
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE
Support is near the 16,735.00 and the 16,550.00 to 16,420.00 region.
Resistance is at 17,135.00 and 17,310.00 to 17,380.00.
DOW JONES TRANSPORTS
Support should appear near 8314.00 to 8300.00 and 8044.00 to 8029.00.
Resistance is at 8560 to 8589.00 and 8668.00 to 8683.00.
DECEMBER E-MINI SP500
Resistance is at 1982.00 to 1996.00 and the 2034.00 to 2042.00 region.
Support should appear near 1953.00 to 1946.00 and the 1909.00 to 1902.00 region.
Below that buyers should appear near 1865.00 to 1858.00. Traders with ice water running through their veins can buy at 1867.00 for a bounce and risk a close under 1855.00 for three days in a row.
NASDAQ COMPOSITE
Resistance should appear at 4503.00 to 4514.00 and 4639.00 to 4650.00.
Support should appear near the 4381.00 to 4370.00 and 4315.00 to 4304.00
DECEMBER E-MINI NASDAQ 100
Support should appear near 3929.00 to 3909.00 an extended trade under is negative and augurs for a test of 3867.00 to 3858.00
Resistance is at 4046.00 to 4056.00 then 4110.00 to 4120.00 and 4163.00 to 4183.00
DECEMBER E-MINI RUSSELL 2000
Resistance should appear near 1115.50 and the 1130.00 to 1136.00 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 1150.00 and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 1096.00, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 1082.00 and the 1068.00 to 1058.00 region. Below that buyers should appear near the 1036.00 to 1032.00 region.
DECEMBER 30 YR BONDS
Resistance should appear near 140-21 and 141-22. Beyond that sellers should appear near 142-07 and 143-12. Traders can sell at 141-17 and hold for lower prices.
Support should appear near 138-21 and 137-17. Below that a test of 136-21 is likely.
DECEMBER 10 YR NOTE
Resistance should appear near 125-21 and 126-07. Beyond that sellers should appear near 126-22.
Support should appear near 123-21 and 123-07. Under that buyers should appear near 122-23
THE FRENZIED FOREX FRONT
DECEMBER DOLLAR INDEX
Resistance should appear near 8683, beyond that a test of 8762 to 8777 is likely.
Support should appear near 8589 to 8560 and 8499 to 8484.
DECEMBER JAPANESE YEN
Resistance should appear near 9140 to 9156 and 9316 to 9347.
Traders can sell at 9307 and hold for lower prices.
Support should appear near 9060 to 9044 and the 8964 to 8934 region.
DECEMBER EURO CURRENCY
Support should appear near 12380 to 12320 and 12030 to 11920
Resistance is at 12610 and 12680 to 12740. Traders can sell at 12677 and hold for lower prices.
DECEMBER SWISS FRANC
Resistance should appear near 10360 then 10470 and 10580 to 10680
Support should appear near 10320, below that a test of 10136 to 10104 is likely. Aggressive Traders should go short if a close under 10317 occurs. Trade accordingly
DECEMBER BRITISH POUND
Support should appear near 15922 and 15760 to 15690
Resistance should appear near 16090 to 16150 and 16272
Traders can sell at 16087 and risk a close over 16157 for three days in a row.
DECEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
Resistance should appear near 8934 to 8964 and 9044 to 9060.
Traders can sell at 9003 and hold for lower prices.
Support should appear near 8856, below that a test of 8777 to 8762 region is likely.
DECEMBER AUSSIE DOLLAR
Support should appear near 8589 to 8560, below that a test of 8314 to 8300 is likely.
Resistance should appear near 8668 to 8683 then 8762 to 8777 and 8856 to 8871
Traders can sell at 8855 and hold for lower prices.
THE PRECIOUS METALS
DECEMBER GOLD
Resistance should appear near 1203.00 and 1232 to 1238.
Support should appear near the 1192.0 and the 1169 to 1164.0 region
DECEMBER COPPER
Resistance should appear near 30920 to 31020 and 31480 to 31570.
Support should appear near 29370 to 29280 and 28830 to 28740.
DECEMBER SILVER
Support should appear near 1655.0 to 1642.0 and the 1615.0 to 1609.0 region.
Resistance is at 1689.0 to 1696.0 and 1774.0 to 1780.0
THE EXCITING ENERGIES
DECEMBER CRUDE OIL
Support should appear near 8777 to 8762 and the 8589 to 8560 region. Below that a test of 8314 to 8300 is likely.
Resistance should appear near 8934 to 8964 and 9044 to 9060. Beyond that sellers should appear near 9044 to 9060 and 9140 to 9156. Traders can sell at 9043 and hold for lower prices.
DECEMBER BRENT CRUDE OIL
Resistance should appear near 9316 to 9347 and 9706 to 9737. Beyond that sellers should appear near the 9921 to 9937 region.
Support should appear near 9156 to 9140 and 9060 to 9044, below that a test of 9064 to 8934 is likely.
NOVEMBER HEATING OIL
Support should appear near should appear near 25680 to 25520 and the 25190 to 25110 region.
Resistance should appear 26630 to 26720 and 27580 to 27750. Traders can sell at 27570 and hold foe lower prices…
NOVEMBER UNLEADED GAS
Support should appear the 23220 to 23150 and the 21850 to 21700 region.
Resistance should appear near 24110 to 24190 then 24610 to 24690 and the 25110 to 25190 region.
NOVEMBER NATURAL GAS
Resistance should appear 4.046 to 4.056 then and 4.304 to 4.315
Support should appear near 3.867 to 3.858 and 3.553 to 3.563 where buyers should appear and contain declines.
THE GRANDE’ GRAINS
NOVEMBER SOYBEANS
Support should appear near 887 ¼ to 885 ¾ and the 868 ½ to 867 region.
Resistance should appear near 931 ¾ to 934 ¾ and 942 ¾ to 944 1/2
DECEMBER SOYOIL
Support should appear near 3213 to 3194 and 3157 to 3148. Below that a test of 3045 to 3036 is likely.
Resistance should appear near 3319 to 3328 and the 3377 to 3386 region.
DECEMBER SOYMEAL
Resistance should appear near 314.8 to 315.7 and 326.1 to 327.0
Support should appear near 282.9 to 282.0 and 267.2 to 266.3
DECEMBER CORN
Support should appear near 315 ¾ to 314 ¾ and 293 ¾ to 292 ¾.
Resistance should appear near 331 ¾ to 332 ¾ and 337 ¾ to 338 ¾
DECEMBER WHEAT
Support should appear near 446 ¾ to 442 ¾ and 430 ½ to 431 ½
Resistance should appear near 497 ½ to 499 ½ and 505 ¾ to 506 ¾
THE LIVELY LIVESTOCK
DECEMBER CATTLE
Support should appear near 16550 to 16420 and the 16150 to 16090 region.
Resistance should appear near 16890 to 16960 and the 17310 to 17340 region. Where sellers should appear and cap a rally.
FEBRUARY CATTLE
Support should appear near 16550 to 16420 and the 16150 to 16090 region.
Resistance should appear near 16890 to 16960 and the 17310 to 17340 region.
DECEMBER HOGS
Support should appear near 9157 to 9137 and the 9067 to 9042 region.
Below that a test of 8967 to 8932 is likely.
Resistance should appear near 9427 to 9442 and the 9527 to 9542 region.
Beyond that sellers should appear near 9622 to 9642 and cap a rally…
FEBRUARY HOGS
Support should appear near 8872 to 8857 and the 8682 to 8667 region.
Resistance should appear near 9137 to 9157 then 9317 to 9347 and the 9427 to 9447 region.
Where sellers should appear and cap a rally. Traders can sell at 9407 and risk a close over 9557 for three days in a row.
April Hogs
Support should appear near 9062 to 9042 and 8967 to 8932.
Below that support should appear near 8872 to 8857.
Resistance should appear near 9137 to 9157 and 9317 to 9347.
THE SATISFYING SOFTS
DECEMBER COFFEE
Resistance should appear near 20800 to 20890 and the 21260 to 21350 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 21700 to 21850 and the 22190 to 22260 region.
Support should appear near 19530 to 19460 and 19090 to 19020.Below that a test of 18650 to 18580 is likely
DECEMBER COCOA
Resistance should appear near 3092 to 3102 then 3148 to 3157 and 3194 to 3213.
Traders can sell at 3144 and hold for lower prices. Risk a close over 3162 for three days in a row.
Support should appear near 3045 to 3036, below that a test of 2990 to 2972 is likely… under that buyers should appear near 2937 to 2928…
MARCH SUGAR
Resistance is near 1642 to 1655 and the 1731 to 1738 region.
Support should appear near 1576 to 1569 and 1535 to 1529
Stay tuned for Flashes and Updates in all Markets
–A Ship in Harbor is Safe…But that is not what ships are built for –
Happy Trading!
Bill wil@futurescom.com
Friday October 03, 2014 6:15 PM South Florida Beach Time
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