FuturesCom Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook # 457 Saturday September 20, 2014. SP500 and Equity Indices • Bonds • Currency Trading • Forex • Precious Metals • Energy • Grains • Livestock • Coffee • Sugar • Cocoa • Cotton. Free Two Week Trial see https://futurescom.com/free-trial-2
“The marvel of all history is the patience with which men and women submit to burdens unnecessarily laid upon them by their governments.” — George Washington–
Friday September 19, 2014
4:00 AM, South Florida Beach Time.
Traders should stay nimble and stay tuned for flashes. Geopolitical tensions remain elevated but have stabilized. The Mideast is still a disaster and we expect more noise in Eastern Europe this winter.
Traders should expect constant babble from global finance ministers and government leaders as well as central bankers. U.S Stock Indices are generally up on the year. However the Russell 2000 acts lousy and that’s putting things mildly. Interest rates remain at essentially zero, expectations move around regarding what the Fed will do but the Fed has not done anything. However asset purchases will soon end and the result is likely to be increased volatility. Long term support for the Dow Jones Industrial Average remains well below the prevailing recent trading ranges. The advance decline line peaked in Mid-July. Stocks have been relatively stable since then. Generally speaking money has left many physical markets and is now piled into stocks.
Forex Markets; The euro remains lower on the year. Longer term downside targets are well below the current levels. Sell rallies in the Euro. Cable is unchanged to a tad lower on the year, the post-Scotland vote action was abysmal. USD/CAD is still broadly range bound. Traders should look for a dip against 10820 and 10680 to 10580 to buy. Over the longer term, USD/CAD targets are much higher. The Dollar-Yen has pushed thru to the upside toward the 10960 to 11010 target. Beyond that a test 11300 to 11360 is possible. However a failure there augurs for a test of 10820 while support is now at 10680 to 10580. We remain negative on the Aussie and Kiwi. Downside targets are lower. Kiwi is still giving long term monthly sell signals not seen for a while. The Aussie does has a tendency to firm after month end into late October. The Aussie is essentially unchanged on the year. While the Kiwi is a tad lower. Both are trading affairs now, sell rallies. EUR/CHF remains interesting, Buy EUR/CHF at 12040 or lower.
Japanese stock markets are a bit higher on the year and rates are essentially zero in Japan. China growth remains sloppy in respect to the last decade and that’s putting things lightly. China decided last week to add money to its banking sector and not because it wants to, it has to. Increased tensions in that region also remain unfavorable for companies doing business.
Analysis for overseas equity and foreign exchange markets are available upon request. For more detailed information or a country by county economic analysis and trading or hedging program please call or email a request.
Precious Metals and Energy; Gold and silver remain weak, contract lows in December Silver is well below the current levels of trading. Silver typically will make a final low for the year in November.
Gold on the other hand seasonally tends to rise into the end of September, however that is not happening. Copper is still range bound between the 3.20’s and maybe 3.00 perhaps lower into the 2.75 to 2.50 region. Initially Copper rallied on the Chinese stimulus last week and failed badly. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Crude and the products are trading affairs. Supplies are ample and risk has yet to enter the crude oil market. Historically heating oil tends to get soft from now into the end of September and early October. Unleaded Gas is trading at or near the low end of the range for the last 4 years.
OPEC does want to edge Crude prices higher. So expect some chatter from that cartel even though it appears OPEC’s ability to ‘talk’ markets one way or another is less now than in previous decades. Natural Gas prices are range bound and slightly higher than one year ago and tend to get soft during October ahead of the winter weather season.
Grain supplies are ample. Traders should sell rallies in November Soybeans and January beans for a trade. Downside targets are lower. Wheat acts badly, however typically wheat rises into October and November and that has yet to show itself. Corn is down near the highs of 2004 and is well under the highs of 2012. Corn has reached nearby downside targets and is a trading affair at best. Livestock markets are a day to day trading affair. There is some building evidence that hog supplies will be plentiful down the road. Stay tuned for flashes.
Coffee can waffle around now that is has dipped. Sugar has not held and is due for a sharp rally. Cotton is bouncing around and acts lousy. Cocoa has rallied on Ebola news. The supply demand outlook for cocoa may turn and supply may be exceeding demand. The long term upside targets in Cocoa have been met. Cocoa is a trading affair now.
If Ebola moves out of Africa into Europe, chocolate will be the last thing on anyone’s mind.
Onto the nitty-gritty
THE SENSATIONAL STOCK AND BOND MARKET
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE
Support remains near 17,135.00 and the 16,960.00 to 16,890.00 region. An extended close under is negative and augurs for a test of the 16,550.00 to 16,420.00 region.
Nearby Resistance is at 17,310.00 to 17,380.00, beyond that 17,740.00 to 17,780.00 should cap a rally.
DOW JONES TRANSPORTS
Support should appear near 8589.00 to 8560 then 8499 to 8484 and 8406 to 8391.
Resistance is at 8668.00 to 8683.00 then 8762 to 8777 and 8856.00 to 8871.00
DECEMBER E-MINI SP500
Resistance is at 2015.00 and the 2034.00 to 2042.00 region.
Support should appear near 1996.00 then 1989.00 and 1982.00, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 1967.50 and the 1953.00 to 1945.00 region.
NASDAQ COMPOSITE
Resistance should appear at 4639.00 to 4650.00 and the 4695.00 to 4717.00 region.
Support should appear near 4514.00 to 4503.00 and the 4446.00 to 4425.00 region.
DECEMBER E-MINI NASDAQ 100
Support should appear near 4056.00 to 4046.00 then 3992.00 to 3982.00 and 3929.00 to 3909.00.
Resistance is at 4110.00 to 4120.00 and 4163.00 to 4183.00
DECEMBER E-MINI RUSSELL 2000
Resistance should appear near 1150.00 and 1164.0 to 1169.0.
Support should appear near 1136.00 to 1130.00, below that a test of 1101.00 to 1096.00 is likely.
DECEMBER 30 YR BONDS
Resistance should appear near 137-07 and 138-07. Beyond that sellers should appear near 139-16.
Support should appear near 135-21 and 134-22. Below that a test of 133-21 is likely.
DECEMBER 10 YR NOTE
Resistance should appear near 124-17 and 125-07. Beyond that sellers should appear near 125-21
Support should appear near 123-21 and 123-07. Under that buyers should appear near 122-23
THE FRENZIED FOREX FRONT
DECEMBER DOLLAR INDEX
Resistance should appear near 8499, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of
8560 to 8589.. Beyond that sellers should appear near 8668 to 8683.
Support should appear near 8445 and the 8406 to 8391 region.
DECEMBER JAPANESE YEN
Resistance should appear near 9316 to 9347 and 9429 to 9445. Traders can sell at 9312 and hold for lower prices.
Support should appear near 9156 to 9140 then 9060 to 9044 and the 8964 to 8934 region.
DECEMBER EURO CURRENCY
Support should appear near 12740 to 12680
Resistance is at 12890 and the 13040 to 13100. Traders can sell at 12887 and hold for lower prices.
DECEMBER SWISS FRANC
Resistance should appear near 10960 to 11010
Support should appear near 10680 to 10580.
Aggressive Traders should go short if a close under 10577 occurs.
Trade accordingly
DECEMBER BRITISH POUND
Support should appear near 16150 to 16090 and 15922
Resistance should appear near 16420 to 16550 and 16717
DECEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
Resistance should appear near 9140 to 9156 then 9237 and the 9316 to 9347 region
Support should appear near 9060 to 9044, below that a test of 8964 to 8934 is likely.
DECEMBER AUSSIE DOLLAR
Support should appear near 8871 to 8856, below that a trade towards the 8777 to 8762 is likely. Under that buyers should appear near 8683 to 8668..
Resistance should appear near 8934 to 8964 and the 9044 to 9060 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 9140 to 9156 and cap a rally.
THE PRECIOUS METALS
DECEMBER GOLD
Resistance should appear near 1232 to 1238 and 1253.0. Beyond that sellers should appear near 1268.0 to 1274.0
Support should appear near the 1203.0 to 1192.0 and the 1169 to 1164.0 region
DECEMBER COPPER
Resistance should appear near 31480 to 31570 and 321940 to 32130.
Support should appear near 30450 to 30360 and 29370 to 29280.
DECEMBER SILVER
Support should appear near 1780.0 to 1774.0, below that a test of 1738.0 to 1731.0 and eventually the 1696.0 to 1684.0 region is likely.
Resistance is at the 1858.0 to 1865.0 then 1909 to 1922 and 1945 to 1953 region.
THE EXCITING ENERGIES
DECEMBER CRUDE OIL
Support should appear near 9060 to 9044 and 8964 to 8934. Under that buyers should appear near 8777 to 8762…
Resistance should appear near 9140 to 9156 then 9316 to 9347 and 9429 to 9445. Beyond that sellers should appear near 9526 to 9542 and 9625 to 9649. Traders can sell at 9312 and hold for lower prices.
DECEMBER BRENT CRUDE OIL
Resistance should appear near 10021 to 10037 and 10104 to 10136
Support should appear near 9737 to 9706 and 9542 to 9526
NOVEMBER HEATING OIL
Support should appear near should appear near 26720 to 26630 and the 25680 to 25520 region.
Resistance should appear 27580 to 27750 and 28200 to 28290. Traders can sell at 28190 and hold for lower prices.
NOVEMBER UNLEADED GAS
Support should appear the 24690 to 24610 region. Below that a test of 24190 to 24110 is likely.
Resistance should appear near 25520 to 25680 and 26120 to 26200. Beyond that sellers should
appear near 27580 to 27750.
NOVEMBER NATURAL GAS
Resistance should appear 3.982 to 3.992 then 4.046 to 4.056 and 4.304 to 4.315
Support should appear near 3.867 to 3.858 and 3.553 to 3.563 where buyers should appear and contain declines. Below that support should appear against 3.386 to 3.377
THE GRANDE’ GRAINS
NOVEMBER SOYBEANS
Support should appear near 934 ¾ to 931 ¾ and 915 ¾ to 914
Resistance should appear near 970 ¾ to 973 ¾ and 982 to 983 ¾
Traders can sell January Soybeans at 992 ¼ and hold for lower prices. Risk a close over 1004 for three days in a row.
DECEMBER SOYOIL
Support should appear near 3213 to 3194 and 3157 to 3148. Below that a test of 3045 to 3036 is likely.
Resistance should appear near 3319 to 3328 and the 3377 to 3386 region.
DECEMBER SOYMEAL
Resistance should appear near 326.1 to 327.0 and 337.7 to 338.1
Support should appear near 310.2 to 309.2 and the 304.5 to 303.6 region.
DECEMBER CORN
Support should appear near 327 to 326 ¼ and 315 ¾ to 314 ¾ region.
Resistance should appear near 366 ¼ to 368 ¼ and 373 ½ to 373 ¾. Traders can sell at 366 ¼ and hold for lower prices. Risk a close over 374 for three days in a row.
DECEMBER WHEAT
Support should appear near 446 ¾ to 442 ¾ and 430 ½ to 431 ½
Resistance should appear near 505 ¾ to 506 ¾ and 549 ¼ to 550 ½
THE LIVELY LIVESTOCK
OCTOBER CATTLE
Support should appear near 15350 to 15290 and the 14960 to 14840 region.
Resistance should appear near 15690 to 15760 and 16090 to 16150
DECEMBER CATTLE
Support should appear near 15760 to 15690 and 15350 to 15290
Resistance should appear near 16090 to 16150 and 16270
OCTOBER HOGS
Support should appear near 10470 then 10360 to 10320 and 10137 to 10102.
Resistance should appear near 10680 and the 10960 to 11010 region.
DECEMBER HOGS
Support should appear near 9347 to 9317 and the 9157 to 9137 region
Resistance should appear near 9527 to 9542 then 9707 to 9737 and the 9922 to 9937 region. Traders can sell at 9702 and risk a close over 9757 for three days in a row.
FEBRUARY HOGS
Support should appear near 9062 to 9042 region. Below that supports should appear near 8872 to 8857 and the 8682 to 8667 region.
Resistance should appear near 9137 to 9157 then 9317 to 9347 and the 9427 to 9447 region.
Where sellers should appear and cap a rally. Traders can sell at 9407 to go back short and initially risk a close over 9557 for three days in a row.
THE SATISFYING SOFTS
DECEMBER COFFEE
Resistance should appear near 18080 to 18220 and the 18580 to 18650 region, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 19020 to 19090.
Support should appear near 17800 to 17740 then 17380 to 17310 and the 16960 to 16890 region.
DECEMBER COCOA
Resistance should appear near 3261 to 3270 and 3319 to 3328
Support should appear near 3102 to 3092 and 2990 to 2972
MARCH SUGAR
Resistance is near 1609 to 1615 and 1731 to 1738
Support should appear near 1535 to 1529 and 1496 to 1484.
DECEMBER COTTON
Support should appear near 6350 to 6337 and 6190 to 6165
Resistance is at 6743 to 6755 and 6809 to 6836.
Stay tuned for Flashes and Updates in all Markets
–A Ship in Harbor is Safe…But that is not what ships are built for –
Happy Trading!
Bill wil@futurescom.com
Friday September 19, 2014 3:55 PM South Florida Beach Time
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