FuturesCom Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook # 453 July 27 2014 SP500 and Equity Indices • Bonds • Currency Trading • Forex • Precious Metals • Energy • Grains • Livestock • Coffee • Sugar • Cocoa • Cotton. Free Two Week Trial see https://futurescom.com/free-trial-2
Saturday July 26, 2014
10:00 AM, South Florida Beach Time.
Traders should stay nimble and stay tuned for flashes during the trading week especially after the month ends.
The geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and the Mideast are not likely to be contained anytime soon, and according to high level security experts we trust the situations are “so far from being contained it’s not even funny.”
That said, stocks remain mixed to higher on the year and year over year. The Russell 2000 is lower from year end levels. The Dow Industrials, Transports, SP500 and Nasdaq are higher from year end. The German Dax is up on the year by 100 points. The Nikkei is down on the year.
Traders should begin to expect increased daily ranges for trading.
In Forex Markets the Euro remains a bit lower on the year. Forex traders should sell rallies..
Cable is higher on the year and still remains in a tight trading range. Cable has support 16960 to 16890. USD/CAD is still broadly range bound. Aggressive Forex traders should continue buy 10680 as long as 10580 can hold. The upside target for USD/CAD remains 10960 to 11010 and likely higher over the longer term. The Dollar-Yen remains a trading affair. Dollar-Yen typically weakens into autumn and is likely to trade in a flat range until the BOJ does more to support the Japanese economy. Analysis for a variety overseas equity and foreign exchange markets are available upon request, for more detailed information please call or email a request.
Precious Metals and Energy; Both silver and gold are trading affairs, should continue to get help for buyers seeking safety from global stress however both have been in a range now for the past year
Spot gold one year ago was 1307 and is near that level today one year later. Copper is struggling and remains well off the recent lows but can turn back lower into august and the rally may have run its course.
Crude is also a trading affair, one year ago spot crude was 107.00 and is 102.00 now. Supplies are ample and one way to put economic pressure on Russia is to force crude prices lower. That will far outweigh any of the rather soft sanctions thus far implemented.
Grains and Livestock; Livestock markets are a day to day trading affair. Traders should continue to look to trade all livestock months out to February of next year. We are under-water on our long
Dec Hogs and look at the decline as “a gift” to buy more.. Trade accordingly.
Softs; Cocoa remains at multi-year highs. Sugar is in the same range it has been and is unchanged on the year. Coffee tends to make lows into late July and Mid-August then rises into the end of the year…
Traders should begin to buy dips. Coffee can rally to near 19820 to 19960. Trade Accordingly
Cotton has continued to decline sharply. Traders should stay nimble and stay tuned for Flashes and Updates in all Markets. Onto the nitty-gritty
THE SENSATIONAL STOCK AND BOND MARKET
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE
Support should appear near 16,890 and the 16,550.00 to 16,420.00 region.
Resistance is at 17,135.00 and the 17,310.00 to 17,380.00 region.
DOW JONES TRANSPORTS
Support should appear near 8314.00 to 8300.00, below that a test of 8044.00 to 8029.00 is likely.
Resistance is at 8484.00 to 8499.00 and the 8560.00 to 8589.00 region
SEPTEMBER E-MINI SP500
Resistance is at the 1982.00 to 1996.00 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 2034.00 to 2042.00.
Support should appear near 1953.00 to 1946.00, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 1927.50 and the 1909.0 to 1902.0 region. Where buyers should appear and contain a decline.
Aggressive Traders should go short if a close under 1945.75 occurs.
NASDAQ COMPOSITE
Resistance should appear at 4503.00 to 4514.00 and the 4571.00 to 4582.00 region.
Support should appear near 4381.00 to 4370.00 and 4315.00 to 4304.00.
SEPTEMBER E-MINI NASDAQ 100
Support should appear near 3929.00 to 3909.00 and the 3806.00 to 3795.00 region.
Resistance is at 3982.00 to 3992.00 and the 4046.00 to 4056.00 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 4110.00 to 4120.00
SEPTEMBER E-MINI RUSSELL 2000
Resistance should appear at near 1164.00 to 1169.00 and 1192.00 to 1203.00.
Support should appear near 1136.00 to 1130.00 and 1101.00 to 1092.00. Below that a test of 1068.00 to 1058.00 is likely.
SEPTEMBER 30 YR BONDS
Resistance should appear near 140-21 and 141.21. Where sellers should cap a rally
Support should appear near 137-21 and 137-07. Below that buyers should appear near 136-21.
SEPTEMBER 10 YR NOTE
Resistance should appear near 126-21 and 127-07 and 128-21
Support should appear near 124-21, below that buyers should appear near 124-07 and 123-21.
THE FRENZIED FOREX FRONT
SEPTEMBER DOLLAR INDEX
Resistance should appear near 8119 to 8134, a close over is friendly and indicates a test of 8194 to 8223 where sellers should cap a rally.
Support should appear near 8044.00 to 8029 and 7954 to 7939.
SEPTEMBER JAPANESE YEN
Resistance should appear near 9921 to 9937, beyond that a test of 10021 to 10037 is likely.
Support should appear near 9821 and the 9737 to 9706 region.
SEPTEMBER EURO CURRENCY
Support should appear near the 13400 to 13340 region. A close under is negative and augurs for a test of 13100 to 13040.
Resistance is at 13460 and 13615. Traders can sell at 13460 and risk 50 points
SEPTEMBER SWISS FRANC
Resistance should appear near 11155 and 11300 to 11360.
Support is near the 11010 to 10960 region. Below that a test of 10820 is likely. Trade accordingly
SEPTEMBER BRITISH POUND
Support should appear near 16960 to 16890 and 16720.
Resistance should appear near 17130 and the 17310 to 17380 region.
SEPTEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
Resistance should appear near 9316 to 9347. Traders can sell at 9311 and risk a close over 9352.
Support should appear near 9156 to 9140 and 9060 to 9044.
SEPTEMBER AUSSIE DOLLAR
Support should appear near 9447 to 9316 and 9237.
Resistance should appear near 9429 to 9445 and the 9625 to 9641 region.
THE PRECIOUS METALS
DECEMBER GOLD
Resistance should appear near 1334.0 to 1346.0.
Support should appear near 1274.0 to 1268.0
SEPTEMBER COPPER
Resistance should appear near 32610 to 32700 and 33190 to 33280
Support should appear near 31570 to 31480, below that a test of 31020 to 30920 is likely.
SEPTEMBER SILVER
Support should appear near the 2042 to 2034 region. Below that a test of 1996 to 1982 is likely.
Resistance is at 2080 to 2089 and 2126.0 to 2134.0
THE EXCITING ENERGIES
DECEMBER CRUDE OIL
Support should appear near 9737 to 9706 and 9347 to 9316.
Resistance should appear near 10021 to 10037 and the 10104 to 10136 region. Where sellers should appear and cap a rally. Traders can sell at 10103 and risk a close over 10141 for three days in a row.
SEPTEMBER BRENT CRUDE OIL
Resistanceshould appear near 10960 to 11010.
Supportshould appear near 10680 and 10580
SEPTEMBER HEATING OIL
Support should appear near should appear near 28200 to 28290 and 26720 to 26630
Resistance should appear 29280 to 29370 and 29720 to 29900
SEPTEMBER UNLEADED GAS
Support should appear 27750 to 27580 and 26290 to 26200
Resistance should appear near 28740 to 28830 and 29280 to 29370
SEPTEMBER NATURAL GAS
Resistance should appear 3.867 to 3.858 and 4.046 to 4.056.
Support should appear near 3.623 to 3.613 and 3.157 to 3.148 where buyers should appear and contain declines.
THE GRANDE’ GRAINS
NOVEMBER SOYBEANS
Support should appear near 1013 ¾ to 1010 1/2 and 983 ½ to 982 ¾.
Resistance should appear near 1096 to 1101 and 1130 to 1136.
DECEMBER SOYOIL
Support should appear near the 3443 to 3425 and 3326 to 3319.
Resistance should appear near 3734 to 3743 and 3909 to 3929
DECEMBER SOYMEAL
Resistance should appear near 355.3 to 356.3 and 373.4 to 374.3
Support should appear near 327.0 to 326.1 and 304.5 to 305.3
DECEMBER CORN
Support should appear near the 362 ¼ to 361 ¼ and the 344 ½ to 342 ¾. Below that a test of 327 to 326 ¼ is likely
Resistance should appear near 373 ½ to 373 ¾ and 398 ½ to 399 ½ and should be sold if it gets there.
SEPTEMBER WHEAT
Support should appear near 513 ¾ to 512 ½ and 499 ½ to 497 ¾
Resistance should appear near 549 ½ to 550 ¾ and 571 ¾ to 572 ¾.
THE LIVELY LIVESTOCK
AUGUST CATTLE
Resistance should appear near 16090 to 16150 and the 16420 to 16550 region
Support should appear near 15760 to 15690 then 15525 and the 15350 to 15290 region.
OCTOBER CATTLE
Support should appear near 15350 to 15290
Resistance should appear near 16090 to 16150 and 16420 to 16550
AUGUST HOGS
Support should appear near 12320 and 12030 to 11920
Resistance should appear near 12680 to 12740 and 13040 to 13100.
OCTOBER HOGS
Support should appear near 10580 to 10680
Resistance should appear near 10960 to 11010 and 11300 to 11360
DECEMBER HOGS
Support should appear near 9737 to 9707 and 9642 to 9632.
Resistance should appear near 10022 to 10037 and 10102 to 10137. Beyond that a test of 10320 to 10360 is likely
THE SATISFYING SOFTS
SEPTEMBER COFFEE
Resistance should appear near 18080 to 18220, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 18580 to 18650.
Support should appear near 17800 to 17740 and 17380 to 17310.
Traders can buy at 17390 and risk a close under 17310 for three days in a row.
Stay tuned for flashes…
SEPTEMBER COCOA
Resistance should appear near 3194 to 3213 and the 3261 to 3270 region
Support should appear near 3157 to 3148 and 3102 to 3092 region.
OCTOBER SUGAR
Resistance is near the 1731 to 1738 and 1774 to 1783.
Support should appear near 1655 to 1642 and should hold
DECEMBER COTTON
Support should appear near 6350 to 6337 and 5880 to 5855.
Resistance is at 6743 to 6755 and 6809 to 6836
Stay tuned for Flashes and Updates in all Markets
–A Ship in Harbor is Safe…But that is not what ships are built for –
Happy Trading!
Bill wil@futurescom.com
Sunday July 27, 2014 3:00 PM South Florida Beach Time
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