FuturesCom Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook # 452 July 13 2014 SP500 and Equity Indices • Bonds • Currency Trading • Forex • Precious Metals • Energy • Grains • Livestock • Coffee • Sugar • Cocoa • Cotton. Free Two Week Trial see https://futurescom.com/free-trial-2
“ I made my money by selling too soon.” – Bernard Baruch
Saturday July 12, 2014
7:00 AM, South Florida Beach Time.
Traders should stay nimble and stay tuned for flashes during the trading week. An economic calendar is attached to today’s newsletter. Stocks remain mixed to higher on the year and year over year.
The Russell 2000 closed Friday a bit lower from year end levels. The Dow Industrials, Transports, SP500 and Nasdaq are higher from year end. Earnings season is here, so expect some modestly wider ranges. In Forex Markets the Euro remains a bit lower on the year. Cable is higher on the year and still remains in a tight trading range. We prefer to wait and see if cable holds 16960 before attempting to buy a dip. USD/CAD is still broadly range bound and typically makes a low around now. Aggressive Forex traders should consider buying 10680 as long as 10580 can hold. The upside target for USD/CAD is 10960 to 11010 and likely higher over the longer term. The Dollar-Yen remains a trading affair and has continued to weaken slightly. Dollar-Yen typically weakens into autumn and
now appears to be following that path unless more forceful measures come from the MOF and BOJ.
Forex market trading ranges remain muted, we do expect that to change so stay tuned for Forex Flashes. Analysis for a variety overseas equity and foreign exchange markets are available upon request, for more detailed information please call or email a request.
Precious Metals and Energy; Gold and Silver act better.. Both silver and gold while trading affairs, should continue to get help for buyers seeking safety from stress in the Mideast. Crude oil can get upside help from Geopolitical issues which may stall the current decline and may help push crude higher into early August. We do expect the U.S to eventually evacuate the embassy in Iraq as the country breaks apart amidst a wider regional conflict which may support prices. Traders should look for trades from both sides and consider Crude a trading affair. Stay tuned for Flashes. Natural Gas supplies are still pressuring prices. Without further Natural Gas demand improvement or a sudden unexpected decline in supplies expect more weakness. Copper acts better, however copper is only back to nearly unchanged on the year and now is a trading affair.
Grains and Livestock; All the USDA grain reports came out bearish. Long term prices appear to be heading to lows at or near the last recession. Livestock markets are a day to day trading affair and are essentially at record highs. Traders should continue to look to trade all livestock months out to February of next year. Live Cattle has worked off the extremely overbought conditions. On Friday the USDA increased the estimate of 2014 beef production by 130 million pounds and increased their estimate for 2015 by 60 million pounds. Despite the increases the USDA increased their 2014 price guess to $148 from $146 in their June estimate. USDA left unchanged 2015 between $145 and $157. August Hogs historically tend to get stronger into late July after some weakness in early July and should drag the complex higher. On Friday the USDA reduced the forecast of 2014 pork production by 60 million pounds and cut their estimate for 2015 pork by 70 million pounds. The changes reflect the industry’s inability to gain control of the PED virus.
Stay tuned for Livestock Flashes.
Softs; Cocoa is range bound at multi-year highs. Sugar can hold and turn back higher and remains near the same price it was a year ago and at year end. Coffee is becoming interesting. Seasonally coffee tends to make lows into late July and rises into the end of the year. The medium term supply demand scenario suggests the low 140’s to high 130’s is a place to base and rally into year end. Cotton continued to decline sharply, remains weak and appears to be heading to lows not seen since the global recession as export demand for U.S. Cotton has continued to deteriorate.
Traders should stay nimble and stay tuned for Flashes and Updates in all Markets.
Onto the nitty-gritty.
THE SENSATIONAL STOCK AND BOND MARKET
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE
Support should appear near 16,890 and the 16,550.00 to 16,420.00 region.
Resistance is at 17,135.00 and the 17,310.00 to 17,380.00 region.
DOW JONES TRANSPORTS
Support should appear near 8044 to 8029 and the 7777.00 to 777.63 region.
Resistance is at 8300.00 to 8314.00 and 8391 to 8406
SEPTEMBER E-MINI SP500
Resistance is at 1967.50 and the 1982.00 to 1996.00 region.
Support should appear near 1953.00 to 1946.00, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 1927.50 and the 1909.0 to 1902.0 region. Where buyers should appear and contain a decline.
Aggressive Traders should go short if a close under 1945.50 occurs.
NASDAQ COMPOSITE
Resistance should appear at 4425.00 to 4446.00 and the 4503.00 to 4514.00 region.
Support should appear near 4315.00 to 4304.00 and 4249.00 to 4238.00.
SEPTEMBER E-MINI NASDAQ 100
Support should appear near 3806.00 to 3795.00 and 3743.00 to 3734.00.
Resistance is at 3909.00 to 3929.00 and 3982.00 to 3992.00
SEPTEMBER E-MINI RUSSELL 2000
Resistance should appear at near 1164.00 to 1169.00 and 1192.00 to 1203.00.
Support should appear near 1136.00 to 1130.00 and 1101.00 to 1092.00.
SEPTEMBER 30 YR BONDS
Resistance should appear near 138-21 and 140-21, where sellers should come in a cap any rally.
Support should appear near 136-21 and 136-07. Below that buyers should appear near 135-21.
SEPTEMBER 10 YR NOTE
Resistance should appear near 126-21 and 127-07 and 128-21
Support should appear near 125-07 and 124-21, below that buyers should appear near 124-07
THE FRENZIED FOREX FRONT
SEPTEMBER DOLLAR INDEX
Resistance should appear near 8029 to 8044 and 8119 to 8134.
Support should appear near 7954 to 7939 and the 7864 to 7836 region.
SEPTEMBER JAPANESE YEN
Resistance should appear near 9921 to 9937, beyond that a test of 10021 to 10037 is likely.
Support should appear near 9837 to 9821 and the 9737 to 9706 region.
SEPTEMBER EURO CURRENCY
Support should appear near the 13460 to 13340 region.
Resistance is at 13690. Traders can sell at 13687 and hold for lower prices… Beyond that sellers should appear near 13770 to 13830 and cap a rally.
SEPTEMBER SWISS FRANC
Resistance should appear near 11300 to 11360 and 11500.
Support is near 11155 and the 11010 to 10960 region.
SEPTEMBER BRITISH POUND
Support should appear near 16960 to 16890 and 16720.
Resistance should appear near 17130 and the 17310 to 17380 region.
SEPTEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
Resistance should appear near 9316 to 9347 and 9429 to 9445.
Traders can sell at 9312 and hold for lower prices, risk a close over 9352 for three days in a row.
Support should appear near 9156 to 9140 and 9060 to 9044.
SEPTEMBER AUSSIE DOLLAR
Support should appear near 9237 and 9156 to 9140.
Resistance should appear near 9429 to 9445 and the 9625 to 9641 region.
THE PRECIOUS METALS
AUGUST GOLD
Resistance should appear near 1334.0 to 1346.0, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of the 1377.0 to 1383.0 region.
Support should appear near 1310.0 to 1304.0 and 1274 to 1268.
SEPTEMBER COPPER
Resistance should appear near 331290 to 33280
Support should appear near 31570 to 31480.
SEPTEMBER SILVER
Support should appear near 2089 to 2080 and the 2042 to 2034 region.
Resistance is at 2219 to 2226 and 2315 to 2322
THE EXCITING ENERGIES
DECEMBER CRUDE OIL
Support should appear near 9347 to 9316 and 8590 to 8560
Resistance should appear near 9921 to 9937 and 10021 to 10037
SEPTEMBER BRENT CRUDE OIL
Resistanceshould appear near 10820 and 10960 to 11010.
Supportshould appear near 10680 then 10580 and the 10360 to 10320 region
SEPTEMBER HEATING OIL
Support should appear near should appear near 26720 to 26630
Resistance should appear 29280 to 29370
SEPTEMBER UNLEADED GAS
Support should appear 27750 to 27580 and 26290 to 26200
Resistance should appear near 29280 to 29370 and 29720 to 29900
SEPTEMBER NATURAL GAS
Resistance should appear 4.503 to 4.514 and the 4.639 to 4.650 region.
Support should appear near 386.7 to 385.8 and 315.7 to 314.8 where buyers should appear and contain declines.
THE GRANDE’ GRAINS
AUGUST SOYBEANS
Support should appear near 1136 to 1130 and 1101 to 1096
Resistance should appear near 1192 to 1203
NOVEMBER SOYBEANS
Support should appear near 1013 ¾ to 1010 1/2 and 983 ½ to 982 ¾.
Resistance should appear near 1096 to 1101 and 1130 to 1136.
AUGUST SOYOIL
Support should appear near the 3443 to 3425 and 3326 to 3319.
Resistance should appear near 3734 to 3743 and 3909 to 3929
AUGUST SOYMEAL
Resistance should appear near 404.5 to 404.6 and 411.0 to 412.0
Support should appear near 356.3 to 355.3 and 338.6 to 337.7
DECEMBER SOYMEAL
Resistance should appear near 355.3 to 356.3 and 373.4 to 374.3
Support should appear near 327.0 to 326.1 and 304.5 to 305.3
SEPTEMBER CORN
Support should appear near the 344 ½ to 342 ¾ region, which should hold and bring in buyers…
Resistance should appear near 398 ½ to 399 ½ and should be sold for a trade lower…
SEPTEMBER WHEAT
Support should appear near 445 ¾ to 442 1/2 and should hold and bring in buyers..
Resistance should appear near 555 ¾ to 557 ½ and 571 ¾ to 572 ¾.
THE LIVELY LIVESTOCK
AUGUST CATTLE
Support should appear near 14530 to 14590
Resistance should appear near 15290 to 15350.
OCTOBER CATTLE
Support should appear near 14960 to 14840
Resistance should appear near 15690 to 15760.
AUGUST HOGS
Support should appear near 12740 to 12680 and the 12380 to 1320 region.
Resistance should appear near 13040 to 13100 and the 13340 to 13460 region.
OCTOBER HOGS
Support should appear near 11360 to 11300 and 11010 to 10960.
Resistance should appear near 11640 to 11690. Beyond that a test of 11920 to 12030 is likely.
THE SATISFYING SOFTS
SEPTEMBER COFFEE
Resistance should appear near 16420 to 16550 and 16890 to 16960.
Support should appear near the 13830 to 13770 and should bring out buyers and contain a decline.
Stay tuned for flashes…
SEPTEMBER COCOA
Resistance should appear near 3148 to 3157. Beyond that sellers should appear near 3194 to 3213.
Support should appear near 3045 to 3036 and the 2990 to 2972 region.
OCTOBER SUGAR
Resistance is near the 1731 to 1738 and 1774 to 1783. A close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 1902 to 1909 eventually.
Support should appear near 1655 to 1642 and should hold, perhaps for a long time
DECEMBER COTTON
Support should appear near 5880 to 5855 and 5577 to 5555 where buyers should come in and contain the decline.
Resistance is at 6990 to 7003 and 7328 to 7342
Stay tuned for Flashes and Updates in all Markets
–A Ship in Harbor is Safe…But that is not what ships are built for –
Happy Trading!
Bill wil@futurescom.com
Sunday July 13, 2014 12:40 PM South Florida Beach Time
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