FuturesCom Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook # 411 Sunday December 16 2012 SP500 and Equity Indices • Bonds • Currency Trading • Forex • Precious Metals • Energy • Grains • Livestock • Coffee • Sugar • Cocoa • Cotton. Free Two Week Trial see https://futurescom.com/free-trial-2 .
The best thing about the future is that it comes one day at a time”. — Abraham Lincoln —
Saturday December 15, 2012
9:00 PM South Florida Beach Time
The end of the year holidays are around the corner. US lawmakers all want to get home for the holidays and many investment market participants are traveling and winding down trading for year end. This will be 2012’s final Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook. We will keep recommended positions to a minimum and use the New Year holiday weekend to publish issue # 412 and begin sending day trade flashes for short term trading. During the Holiday period, traders should look for markets to trade actively in flurries and then slow down as participants close up shop if they have not done so already.
Some of US stock market indices we follow in this letter have held up over the last few weeks while advancing off the November lows but have set back over the last few days. The March Nasdaq 100 future suffered the worse, closing at its lowest level on Friday since November 21, giving up every bit of its post-Thanksgiving rally. The US Dollar hit our buy level last week and we exited on the bounce and will watch it from here. We remain bearish yen and want to buy sharp dips in Dollar/ Yen, selling Yen futures on Rallies. The Canadian Dollar and Aussie Dollar have both firmed nicely. However a dip may now be due. Euro, Swiss Francs and Cable are all pushing higher look for lower prices into spring after a peak in December. Typically heating oil rises into the end of December buy a dip for a trade.
Be prepared to trade metals from both sides, last week silver acted lousy and sits where it did at the onset of November. Bond and Note futures weakened after the Fed noise and are near the middle of October’s price region, below most the November range. Wheat pushed lower last week and lower prices may still be in front of the market, traders can sell a sharp rally to get back short. Corn bounced after making a test of its early harvest lows. Hogs tend to pull back into early January, thus we will avoid February hogs from the long side and try to re-short. Traders can Buy a Sharp pullback in July Hogs and June Hogs if it occurs. Buying June and Selling Feb hogs should work. Stay tuned for Livestock Flashes and Updates. Coffee remains under pressure. Seasonally higher prices are normally in front of the market now but at best it is a trading affair. Sugar and Cocoa tend take out or test December and November lows in January, thus we would avoid the long side except for a short term trade and prefer to sell rallies.
THE SENSATIONAL STOCK AND BOND MARKET
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE
Support should appear near 13,100.00 to 13,040.00 and 12,890.00. Below that a test of the 12,740.00 to 12,680.00 region is likely.
Resistance should appear near the 13,340.00 to 13,460.00 region and cap a rally.
MARCH E-MINI SP500
Resistance remains near the 1415.00 to 1421.00 region. Beyond that a trade towards 1437 and the 1454 to 1459 is likely. Above that sellers should appear near 1484.00 to 1496.00 and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 1399.00 and the 1383.00 to 1374.00 region. Below that buyers should appear near 1346.00 to 1334.00 which should contain a decline, failure there is negative and augurs for a test of the 1310.00 to 1304.00 region. …Pick Your Poison…
NASDAQ COMPOSITE
Resistance should appear near 2990.00 and 3036.00 to 3045.00, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of the 3092.00 to 3102.00 region, where sellers should appear and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 2938.00 to 2937.00, below that buyers should appear near 2883.00 to 2874.00 and contain a decline.
MARCH E-MINI NASDAQ 100
Support should appear near 2620.00 to 2612.00 region. A close under is negative and augurs for a test of the 2568.00 to 2552.00 region. Under that buyers should appear near the 2519.00 to 2511.00 region.
Resistance should appear near 2663.00 to 2672.00 and the 2716.00 to 2724.00, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 2758.00 to 2775.00, beyond that sellers should appear near 2820.00 to 2829.00
MARCH E-MINI RUSSELL 2000
Resistance should appear near 830.00 to 831.40 and the 856.00 to 858.90 region
Support should appear near 813.40 to 811.909 and the 804.40 to 802.90 region, failure there is negative and augurs for a test of 795.40 to 793.90…
MARCH 30 YR BOND
Resistance should appear near 149-07 and 150-07. Beyond that sellers should appear near
151-21and should cap a rally.
Support should appear near 147-21 and 147-07, below that buyers should appear near 146-21 and 146-07, which should hold for now.
MARCH 10 YR NOTE
Resistance should appear near 133-07 and 133-21, beyond that 134-07 and 134-21 should cap a rally.
Support should appear near 132-07, below that a test of 131-21 is likely and bring in buyers.
THE FRENZIED FOREX FRONT
MARCH DOLLAR INDEX
Resistance should appear near 8029 to 8044 and the 8119 to 8134region. .
Support should appear near 7954 to 7939 region. Below that buyers should appear near 7902 and the 7864 to 7834 region.
MARCH JAPANESE YEN
Resistance should appear near 12030 then 12175 and the 12320 to 12380 region. Traders can sell at 12173 and hold for lower prices…
Support should appear near the 11920 region and should hold failure here augurs for a test of 11805 and eventually the 11690 to 11640 region. Traders should consider selling short if a close under 11917 occurs. Stay tuned for flashes
MARCH EURO CURRENCY
Support should appear near 13100 to 13040 and 12890.
Resistance should appear near 13220 and the 13340 to 13460 region.
MARCH SWISS FRANC
Resistance should appear near the 10960 to 11010 region.
Support should appear near 10820 and 100680 to 10580.
MARCH BRITISH POUND
Support should appear near 16150 to 16090 and 15922
Resistance should appear near 16287 and the 16420 to 16550 region.
MARCH CANADIAN DOLLAR
Resistance should appear near 10136 and 10175. Beyond that 10320 to 10360 and should cap a rally.
Support should appear near 10104, below that buyers should appear near 10037 to 10021
MARCH AUSSIE DOLLAR
Resistance should appear near 10580 to 10680 and 10820
Support should appear near 10470 and the 10360 to 10320 region.
THE PRECIOUS METALS
FEBRUARY GOLD
Resistance should appear near 1731.0 to 1738.0. Beyond that sellers should appear near
1756.0 and the 1774.0 to 1780.0 region.
Support is near 1696.00 to 1689.00 failure there is negative and augurs for a test of 1655.0 to 1642.
MARCH COPPER
Resistance should appear near the 37340 to 37450 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 37950 to 38060.
Support should appear near 36230 to 36130 and the 35630 to 35530 region.
MARCH SILVER
Resistance should appear near the 3261 to 3270 and the 3377 to 3386 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 3425 to 3443 and the 3493 to 3507 region.
Support is at 3213 to 3194, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 3157 to 3148, below that buyers should appear near 3102 to 3092 and the 2990 to 2972 region. .
THE EXCITING ENERGIES
FEBRUARY CRUDE OIL
Resistance should appear near 8856 to 8871 and the 8934 to 8964 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 9044 to 9060 region, which should cap a rally.
Support should appear near 8683 to 8668 and the 8589 to 8560 region. Below that buyers should appear near 8499 to 8484 and the 8406 to 8391 region. .
JANUARY HEATING OIL
Support should appear near 29370 to 29280 should bring in buyers and contain a decline. Traders can buy at 29410 for a bounce and hold for higher prices. Below that support should appear near 28830 to 28740.
Resistance should appear near 30360 to 30450 and the 30920 to 31020 region. Above that a test of 31480 to 31570 is likely.
JANUARY UNLEADED GAS
Resistance should appear near 26630 to 26720 and the 27160 to 27240 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 27580 to 27740.
Support should appear near 26200 to 26120. Below that buyers should appear near 25680 to 25520… Stay tuned for Flashes
JANUARY NATURAL GAS
Resistance should appear at 3425 to 3443 and 3553 to 3563. Beyond that sellers should appear near the 3663 to 3682 region.
Support should appear near 3157 to 3148 and the 2990 to 2972 region.
THE GRANDE’ GRAINS
MARCH SOYBEANS
Support should appear near 1484 and the 1459 to 1453 region. Below that a test of 1421 to 1415 is likely.
Resistance should appear near 1496 and the 1529 to 1535 region, which should cap a rally. Beyond that sellers should appear near 1569 to 1576.
MARCH SOYOIL
Resistance should appear near 5056 to 5067 and the 5127 to 5139 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near the 5200 to 5211region.
Support should appear near 4926 to 4915 and the 4856 to 4845 region.
MARCH SOYMEAL
Resistance should appear near 463.9 to 465.0 and the 477.5 to 478.5 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 484.5 to 485.6 and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 444.6 to 442.5 and 431.5 to 430.6 region. Below that a test of the 418.3 to 416.3 region is likely.
MARCH CORN
Support should appear 717 to 714 ¼, below that a test of 708 ¾ to 707 ½ likely… Failure there augurs for a test of 691 ¾ to 690 3/4.
Resistance should appear near 732 ¾ to 734 ¼ and the 741 ½ to 742 ¾ region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 759 ¾ to 760 1/.4 and cap a rally.
MARCH WHEAT
Resistance should appear near 830 to 831 ¼ and 839 ¼ to 840 ¾, traders can sell at 839 for a turn lower and risk a close over 843 for three days in a row. Beyond that sellers should appear near 856 to 858 ¾
Support should appear near 804 ½ to 802 ¾ and the 795 ½ to 792 ¾ region. Below that buyers should appear near 777 ¾ to 776 ¼.
THE LIVELY LIVESTOCK
FEBRUARY CATTLE
Support should appear near 13220 and 13100 to 13040.
Resistance should appear near 13340 to 13460
APRIL CATTLE
Support should appear near 13617 and the 13460 to13340 region.
Resistance should appear near 13770 to 13830
FEBRUARY HOGS
Resistance should appear near 8557 to 8592 then 8667 to 8682 and the 8762 to 8777 region.
Support should appear near 8502 to 8497 region, below that a test of 8407 to 8392 and eventually the 8317 to 8300 region is likely
APRIL HOGS
Support should appear near 8967 to 8937 region. Below that a test of 8872 to 8857 is likely.
Resistance should appear near 9042 to 9062 and the 9137 to 9157 region. .
JUNE HOGS
Support should appear near 9937 to 9922 and the 9737 to 9707 region. Below that a test of 9642 to 9622 is likely.
Resistance should appear near 10022 to 10037 and the 10102 to 10137 region.
Stay tuned for Livestock Flashes and Updates
THE SATISFYING SOFTS
MARCH COFFEE
Support should appear near 14210 to 14150 and the 13830 to 13770 region.
Resistance should appear near 14840 to 14960 and the15290 to 15350 region.
.
MARCH COCOA
Resistance should appear near 2461 to 2469 and 2511 to 2519. Beyond that sellers should appear near 2552 to 2568. Traders can sell at 2552 and hold for lower prices. Risk a close over 2572 for three days in a row
Support should appear near 2419 to 2411 region. Below that buyers should appear near 2370 to 2354, failure there augurs for a test of the 2322 to 2315 region.
MARCH SUGAR
Support is at 1865 to 1858 region and the 1822 to 1808 region. Under that a test of 1780 to 1774 is likely and where buyers should appear to contain a decline.
Resistance should appear near 1902 to 1909 and the 1945 to 1953 region. Beyond that 1982 to 1996, should cap a rally. Traders can Sell at 1977 and risk a close over 2002 for three days in a row.
MARCH COTTON
Support should appear near 7342 to 7328 and the 7170 to 7143 region. Below that a test of 7003 to 6990 is likely.
Resistance is near 7587 to 7601. Beyond that sellers should appear near 7763 to 7777 and the 7836 to 7864 region and cap a rally.
Stay tuned for Flashes and Updates in all Markets
–A Ship in Harbor is Safe…But that is not what ships are built for —
Happy Trading!
Bill wil@futurescom.com
Sunday December 16, 2012
10:30 AM South Florida Beach Time
THIS PUBLICATION IS SUBJECT TO REVISIONS AND CONTAINS THE VIEW AND OPINIONS OF THE AUTHOR, EXCEPT WHERE OPINIONS ARE ATTRIBUTED TO OTHER SOURCES. WRITTEN PERMISSION IS REQUIRED PRIOR TO ANY DISTRIBUTION OR REPRODUCTION. FUTURES AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING IS RISKY AND CAN CAUSE SUBSTANTIAL FINANCIAL LOSS. THE USE OF OPTIONS AND OPTION TRADING INVOLVES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK. THE USE OF STOPS MAY NOT LIMIT LOSSES TO INTENDED AMOUNTS. SPREAD POSITIONS MAY NOT BE LESS RISKY THAN OUTRIGHT FUTURES POSITIONS, FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND OPTIONS. TRADING FUTURES AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE ON MARGIN CARRIES A HIGH LEVEL OF RISK AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. PLEASE TRADE WITH CAPITAL YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. NO SOLICITATION IS MADE HERE FOR INDIVIDUALS TO BUY OR SELL FUTURES CONTRACTS, FOREIGN EXCHANGE OR OPTION MARKET. SOURCES ARE BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE BUT NO ASSURANCE IS MADE FOR ACCURACY. READERS ARE SOLEY RESPONSIBLE FOR HOW THEY USE THE INFORMATION AND FOR THEIR RESULTS. YOU SHOULD BE AWARE OF ALL THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH FUTURES AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND SEEK ADVICE FROM AN INDEPENDENT FINANCIAL ADVISOR IF YOU HAVE ANY DOUBTS, THE HIGH DEGREE OF LEVERAGE THAT IS OFTEN OBTAINABLE IN FUTURES AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING CAN WORK AGAINST YOU AS WELL AS FOR YOU. THE USE OF LEVERAGE CAN LEAD TO LARGE LOSSES AS WELL AS GAINS. INTERNET RISKS ; THERE ARE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH UTILIZING AN INTERNET BASED SERVICE INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, FAILURE OF HARDWARE, SOFTWARE AND INTERNET CONNECTION, FUTURESCOM EMPLOYS BACK-UP SYSTEMS AND CONTINGENCY PLANS TO MINIMIZE THE POSSIBILITY OF SYSTEM FAILURE
FuturesCom Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook # 411 Sunday December 16, 2012 Equity Indices – Treasuries – Currency Trading – Forex – Precious Metals – Energy – Grains – Livestock – Softs Comments
FuturesCom Investment Publications Terms of Use and Agreement https://www.futurescom.com/policies.html FuturesCom Investment Publications © 1996 – 2012 All Rights Reserved.
