FuturesCom Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook # 441 February 09 2014 SP500 and Equity Indices • Bonds • Currency Trading • Forex • Precious Metals • Energy • Grains • Livestock • Coffee • Sugar • Cocoa • Cotton. Free Two Week Trial see https://futurescom.com/free-trial-2
“We can easily forgive a child who is afraid of the dark. The real tragedy of life is when men are afraid of the light.” — Plato —
Sunday February 09, 2014
5:00 AM, South Florida Beach Time.
Traders should stay nimble and tune in for additional analysis, BW flashes, Updates and Day Trades for all markets. Many markets have widened their trading ranges and that creates opportunity.
An Economic calendar and the U.S Presidents Day Holiday calendar are attached to today’s letter.
U.S Stocks closed a tad higher last week and are down on the year. As we previously said, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and SP500 generally tend to begin the year a bit sloppy and typically firm into March and beyond. During the sharp decline over the last three weeks most stock indices violated December lows and a variety of daily moving averages, take your pick on which ones you want to look at. The VIX tested its highest level in more than a year and the stock market became the most over-sold in since June 2012 and has now bounced.
The Dow Jones Industrial five quarter-average resides near the recent lows. Long term ‘yearly’ technical patterns for the major U.S. stock index averages such as the Dow Jones Industrial average are friendly and are just turning bullish and the monthlies have not changed.
Trader and investor attention will now turn to testimony by U.S Federal Reserve Chief Janet Yellen to members of the U.S legislature on Tuesday February 11th and continues on Thursday February 13th.
Deep analysis for overseas equities, foreign exchange markets and economies is available upon request. For more information please call or email a request.
In Major Forex Markets, Swiss Francs futures still have a tendency to back off a bit over the next month and should be considered a trading affair now. Forex Traders long Dollar Swiss remain down on the trade are likely to see higher prices ahead. Dollar-Yen rose a bit as the flight to safety abated.
The Euro remains range bound between 13770 to 13830 on top and 13460 to 13340 on the downside, depending on which way the wind blows. Any sustained lower price action is negative. Cable is down on the year and now appears range bound between 16150 to 16090 and the 16420 to 16550 region.
The Canadian Dollar firmed over the last few weeks after setting new recent lows. The data coming out of Canada was supportive. Silver and Gold closed higher Friday, U.S 30 Year Bond Futures also closed a tad higher. We remain long dollar yen and remain short postured Yen futures. March Yen tends to drift lower in February and perhaps beyond into March if the safe haven trade abates. The long term Dollar-Yen remains friendly. Long term Cable, remains friendly and is backing and filling. Trading ranges have now expanded in many markets and opens the door for more trading from both sides for many forex markets and this includes cable.
The long term work on Aussie remains bearish. The Kiwi is likely a sale on a sharp rally to the upper edges of its trading range for a trade. Buying Canuck and selling Yen can work over the next month. We are long CAD/JPY for now. Gold and Silver both remain a trading affair and are likely to be one for a long time, Copper bounced off last week after setting new recent lows and tends to stay firm into March and is highly dependent on China growth which is likely to be lower than the previous decades but is still growing. If Copper holds traders should consider rolling to May and holding for higher prices.
Energies acted better. Crude Oil appears over extended, however lasting lows in WTI Crude usually occurs past mid-February and a more range-bound action is likely. WTI is higher on the year while Brent Crude Oil is tad lower. Natural Gas closed lower Friday as a break in the dramatically cold weather pattern is anticipated, however over 5.00 looks Nat Gas looks constructive long term and is higher on the year. Unleaded Gas tends to begin its ascent into spring right about now, we will see if it holds. Traders should look for some back and fill in Unleaded. Heating Oil remains buoyant on weather.
July Bean Oil tends to firm or at least stay stable from now until March and April and appears to have begun accumulation. Chicago Wheat tends to make lows into July. Soybeans tend to rally into Spring and Summer. Chicago Wheat has firmed up into the sell region and is likely to back and fill is recent rally. Soybeans have rallied and a deep setback can be bought.
Coffee has taken off on the upside and higher prices are likely into spring. Traders should Buy May Coffee on a dip and remain long. Sugar tends to make lows in the middle of the year, we will see if it sets back a bit. Cocoa tends to drift around in February and remains long term friendly.
Traders should stay tuned for livestock flashes, there will plenty of them.
Stay tuned for BW flashes and additional analysis across all markets.
Onto the nitty-gritty…
THE SENSATIONAL STOCK AND BOND MARKET
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE
Support should appear near 15,760.00 to 15,690.00 and the 15,350.00 to 15,290.00 region.
Resistance is at 15,925.00 and the 16.090.00 to 16,150.00 region.
MARCH E-MINI SP500
Resistance should appear near 1808.00 to 1822.00 and the 1858.00 to 1865.00 region
Support should appear near 1780.00 to 1774.00 and 1738.00 to 1731.00
NASDAQ COMPOSITE
Resistance should appear near 4163.00 to 4183.00. Beyond that a test of 4238.00 to 4249.00 is likely to occur.
Support should appear near the 4120 to 4110 region. Below that buyers should appear near the 4056.00 to 4046.00 region and contain a decline.
MARCH E-MINI NASDAQ 100
Support should appear near 3503.00 to 3493.00 and the 3443.00 to 3425.00 region.
Resistance is at 3553.00 to 3563.00, close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 3613.00 to 3623.00
MARCH E-MINI RUSSELL 2000
Resistance should now appear at 1130.00 to 1136.00. Beyond that a test of 1164.00 to 1169.00 is likely.
Support should appear near 1101.00 to 1096.00 and the 1068.00 to 1058.00 region.
Stay tuned for Flashes and trade accordingly
MARCH 30 YR BONDS
Resistance should appear near 133-21 then 134-07 and 134-21. Beyond that sellers should appear near 135-07
Support should appear near 132-21 and 132-07. Below that 131-07 and 130-07 should contain a decline.
MARCH 10 YR NOTE
Resistance should appear near 126-07 and 126-21. Beyond that 127-07 and 127-21 should bring out sellers and cap rallies.
Support should appear near 125-07 and 124-21 below that buyers should appear near 124-07 and 123-21 where buyers should step in and contain a decline.
THE FRENZIED FOREX FRONT
MARCH DOLLAR INDEX
Resistance should appear near the 8119 to 8134 region. A sustained trade or close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 8194 to 8223.
Support should appear near 8044 to 8029, which should hold for now. Below that buyers should appear near 7991 and the 7954 to 7939 region.
MARCH JAPANESE YEN
Resistance should appear near 9821 to 9837 and 9921 to 9937
Support should appear near 9737 to 9706 , a close under is negative.. below that an eventual test of 9347 to 9316 is likely. Stay tuned for Flashes.
MARCH EURO CURRENCY
Support should appear near 13615 and the 13460 to 13340 region where buyers should appear and contain a decline.
Resistance should appear near 13690 and the 13770 to 13830 region. Beyond that a test of 13990 is likely and should cap a rally. Stay tuned for Flashes…
MARCH SWISS FRANC
Resistance should appear near 11227 and the 11300 to 11360 region, where sellers should appear and cap rallies.
Support is near the 11010 to 10960 region. Failure to hold is negative for an eventual test of 10820 and the 10680 to 10580 region.
MARCH BRITISH POUND
Support should appear near 16357 and 16277. Below that 16150 to 16090 should contain declines.
Resistance remains near 16550. Beyond that a test of 16720 and 16890 to 16960 is likely
Stay tuned for flashes.
MARCH CANADIAN DOLLAR
Resistance should appear near 9140 to 9156 then 9237 and the 9316 to 9347 region.
Support should appear near the 9044 and 8964 to 8934 region.
MARCH AUSSIE DOLLAR
Support should appear near 8871 to 8856 and 8777 to 8762.
Resistance should appear near 9044 to 9060 and 9140 to 9156.
Pick Your Poison…
THE PRECIOUS METALS
APRIL GOLD
Resistance should appear near 1268.0 to 1274.0. Beyond that sellers should appear near
1304 to 1310 and cap a rally.
Support remains near 1253.0 and the 1238.0 to 1232.0 region. Below that some buyers should appear near 1203.0 to 1192.0, failure to hold is negative and augurs for a test of 1136.0 to 1130.0.
MARCH COPPER
Resistance should appear near 32610 to 32700, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 33190 to 33280.
Support should appear near 32130 to 31940 and the 31570 to 31480 region.
MARCH SILVER
Support should appear near the 1953 to 1946 region. Below that a test of 1909 to 1902 is likely.
Resistance is at 2034 to 2042 and 2080 to 2089. Beyond that sellers should appear near 2126 to 2134.
Pick your poison.
THE EXCITING ENERGIES
MARCH CRUDE OIL
Resistance should appear near 10104 to 10136 and the 10320 to 10360 region.
Support should appear near 9937 to 9921 and 9837 to 9821.
MARCH BRENT CRUDE OIL
Resistance should appear near 10960 to 11010. Beyond that a test of the 11300 to 11360 region is likely.
Support should appear near 10820 and the 10680 to 10580 region
MARCH HEATING OIL
Support should appear near should appear near 29900 to 29720 and 29370 to 29280 region.
Below that buyers should appear near 28830 to 28740.
Resistance should appear the 30920 to 31020, beyond that a test of 31480 to 31570 is likely.
MARCH UNLEADED GAS
Nearby Support should appear 27240 to 27160 and 26720 to 26630.
Resistance should appear near 27580 to 27750, a close or extended trade over is friendly and augurs for a test of 28200 to 28290.
MARCH NATURAL GAS
Resistance should appear at 4845 to 4846 and 4973 to 4995, beyond that a test of 5056 to 5067 is likely and should bring out sellers.
Support should appear near the 4650 to 4639 and 4582 to 4571, below that buyers should
appear near the 4446 to 4425 region and contain a decline.
THE GRANDE’ GRAINS
MAY SOYBEANS
Support should appear near 1310 to 1304 then 1289 and the 1274 to 1268 region. Below that buyers should appear near 1253 and the 1238 to 1232 region. Traders can buy at 1239 for a bounce and hold for higher prices.
Resistance should appear near 1321 and the 1334 to 1346 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 1377 to 1383. Trade Accordingly…
MAY SOYOIL
Resistance should appear near 3909 to 3929. Beyond that sellers should appear near 3982 to 3992.
Support should appear near 3806 to 3795, below that buyers should appear near 3743 to 3734.
Traders can buy at 3747 and hold for higher prices.
MAY SOYMEAL
Resistance should appear near 430.4 to 431.5 and the 437.0 to 438.1 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 442.5 to 444.6 and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 412.0 to 411.0 and the 405.6 to 404.6 region. Below that 399.2 to 398.2 should hold.
MAY CORN
Support should appear near 438 ¼ to 437 and the 424 ¾ to 423 ¾ region.
Resistance should appear near 450 ¼ to 451 ½, beyond that sellers should appear near 463 ¾ to 465.
MAY WHEAT
Resistance should appear near 585 ½ to 588 and 602 ¼ to 603 ½ and the 610 to 611 ¼ region.
Traders can sell at 609 ¾ and hold for lower prices.
Support should appear 565 ½ to 564 and the 557 ¾ to 555 ¼ region. Below that a test of 543 to 541 ¾ is likely. Stay tuned for Grain Flashes.
THE LIVELY LIVESTOCK
APRIL CATTLE
Support remains near 13830 to 13770 and is likely to hold. Below that buyers should appear near 13460 to 13340.
Resistance should appear near 14150 to 14210, beyond that a test of 14357 is likely.
JUNE CATTLE
Support should appear near 13100 to 13040 and 12740 to 12680.
Resistance should appear near the 13340 to 13460 and 13770 to 13830 region.
APRIL HOGS
Support should appear near 9447 to 9427 and the 9347 to 9317 region. A close under is negative and augurs for a test of 9157 to 9142 and the 9062 to 9042 region. Below that buyers should appear near 8967 to 8932, Failure there augurs for a test of 8857 to 8862.
Resistance should appear near 9527 to 9542 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 9622 to 9642 and 9707 to 9737 and cap rallies.
Aggressive Traders should go short if a close under 9412 occurs.
JUNE HOGS
Support should appear near 10357 to 10320 and 10137 to 10102.
Resistance should appear near 10577 to 10682 and 10817
Stay tuned for Livestock flashes.
THE SATISFYING SOFTS
MAY COFFEE
Support should appear near 13770 then 13460 to 13340 and the 13100 to 13040 region.
Traders can buy at 13125 and hold for higher prices.
Resistance should appear 14150 to 14210 and the 14530 to 14590 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 14840 to 14960. Stay tuned for Flashes.
MAY COCOA
Resistance should appear near the 2972 to 2990 region. Beyond that a test of 3036 to 3045 is likely and should bring out sellers.
Support should appear near 2883 to 2874 and the 2829 to 2820 region. Below that buyers should appear near 2775 to 2758 and contain a decline.
MAY SUGAR
Resistance is near 1609 to 1615 and the 1642 to 1655 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near
1689 to 1696.
Support should appear near 1576 to 1569, below that a test of 1535 to 1529 is likely.
MAY COTTON
Support should appear near the 8683 to 8668 region. Below that buyers should appear near 8590 to 8560 and the 8499 to 8484 region. Traders can buy at 8685 for a bounce and hold for higher prices.
Resistance is at the 8856 to 8871 region. Beyond that a test of 8934 to 8964 is likely
Stay tuned for flashes.
Stay tuned for Flashes and Updates in all Markets
–A Ship in Harbor is Safe…But that is not what ships are built for –
Happy Trading!
Bill wil@futurescom.com
Sunday February 09, 2014 1:00 PM South Florida Beach Time
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