Futures Trading Newsletter , Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook #503
FuturesCom Futures Trading Newsletter Sunday July 03 2016. SP500 and Equity Indices • Bonds • Currency Trading • Forex • Precious Metals • Energy • Grains • Livestock • Coffee • Sugar • Cocoa • Cotton. for a Free Two Week trial to our Futures Trading Newsletter see https://futurescom.com/free-trial-2
“A lot of people approach risk as if it’s the enemy, when it’s really fortunes accomplice.”
Saturday July 2, 2016
8:00 PM, South Florida Beach Time
Traders should continue to stay nimble and expect wide movements in all markets. Stay tuned for flashes, updates and additional recommendations. Analysis for global equites, foreign exchange markets and commodities not covered are available. Please call or email a request.
The U.S. political season is just getting underway, global-political risks remain high. The United Kingdom voted to exit the European Union and terse squabbling between political leaders in Europe has begun. U.S. stock markets remain in the same broad trading range and that’s putting it mildly. Interest rates are below zero in many developed nations and much of the investor focus is squarely on central banks.
The U.S. dollar index remains lower on the year. Euro (EUR/USD) has resistance at 11300 to 11360 and 11640 to 11690. Support is at 11010 to 10960 then 10890 and 10680 to 10580.
(GBP/USD) British Pound futures fell apart to new multi-year lows. Cable has support near 13100 to 13040 and 12740 to 12680. Resistance is near 13340 to 13460 and 13770 to 13830. Sell rallies.
USD/CAD (Canadian Dollar) support is near 12740 to 12680 and 12380 to 12320. Resistance is 13040 to 13100 and 13340 to 13460. The USD/CAD tends to drift higher after mid-July. Futures do the opposite. Buy dips against 12740 perhaps 12890. Dollar Yen (USD/JPY) long term remain sloppy.
The lows of the are likely in front of the mkt not behind it. Resistance is at 10320 to 10360 and 10580 to 10680. Support at 10136 to 10120 and 10037 to 10021. The Bank of Japan meets on July 28.
The Aussie and Kiwi continue to choppy around and are trading affairs. China’s Yuan moved up to 6.659 to 6.673. Over that as test of 6.743 to 6.755 is likely. Support is near 6.591 to 6.755.
Precious Metals; Gold and silver both moved up and act well. Copper acts better. Long term it is still a mess. Look for a trading ranges in precious metals and stay tuned for flashes. Energies; Crude Oil and the products continue to trade in wide range. Natural Gas acts better however it is likely to run into some selling near current levels. Stay tuned for energy flashes and updates.
Grains; Corn fell precipitously. July and December corn are trading just above contract lows.
The USDA acreage report on Thursday showed farmers planted 94.148 million acres versus 93.6 million in March. The June 1st corn stocks rose to 4.722 billion bushels versus 4.453 billion a year ago.
Wheat futures fell apart and ended the session near contract lows. The USDA report showed total U.S. wheat plantings at 50.816 million acres versus 49.559 million acres in March. The agency moved spring wheat planted area up 785,000 acres to 12.133 million. June 1st wheat stocks were 981.3 million bushels versus 752 million a year ago. Wheat tends to make the lows for the year in late July or even August. Wheat is a mess and the global wheat price war in ongoing. Soybeans act better. Thursday’s USDA report showed soybean on June 1st stocks were at 870 million bushels versus 627 million bushels a year ago. The USDA report showed famers planted 83.688 million acres of soybeans versus 82.236 million acres in March. The hot part of the summer is just ahead. Soybean Oil is a sale on a rally.
Livestock; the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Quarterly Hog inventory report a week ago showed
the nation’s hog inventory was 68.381 million head, up 2 percent versus a year ago and up 1 percent from March 1, 2016. This is the highest June 1 inventory of all hogs and pigs since estimates began in 1964. Breeding inventory was at 5.979 million head, up 1 percent from last year. Ready for market hog inventory was 62.402 million head, up 2 percent versus a year ago and up 1 percent from last quarter. This is the highest June 1 market hog inventory since estimates began in 1964. The March to May pig crop was 103 percent of a year ago.
The USDA cattle on feed report showed cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market totaled 10.8 million head on June 1, 2016. The inventory rose 2 percent versus June 1, 2015. Placements in feedlots during May totaled 1.88 million head, 10 percent above a year ago. Marketings are estimated to be near 105 percent of a year ago. Marketings of fed cattle during May totaled 1.79 million head, up 5 percent versus a year ago.
Both hogs and cattle continue trade in wide ranges. Stay tuned for livestock updates and flashes
Soft Commodities; Coffee moved up and acts better. Sugar moved up and has traded in a wide trading range. Sugar typically firms into the middle of July. Cocoa and Cotton act sloppy. The USDA report on Thursday showed U.S. farmers planted 10.02 million acres of cotton versus 9.562 million acres in March. Unless something changes Cotton is a sale on rallies. Look for a broad trading range between 6673 on top and 5800 on the low end. We want to continue to sell a rally in Sept or December Cocoa. Nothing has changed.
Traders should remain nimble and stay tuned updates and flashes.
On to the Nitty Gritty.
THE SENSATIONAL STOCK AND BOND MARKET
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE Support is at 17,800.00 to 17,740.00 then 17,380.00 to 17,310.00 and 16,960.00 to 16,890.00.
Resistance is at the 18,080.00 to 18,220.00 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 18,580.00 to 18650.00
DOW JONES TRANSPORTS
Support should appear near 7513.00 to 7486.00. Below that buyers should appear near 7342.00 to 7328.00 and the 7088.00 to 7064.00 region. Resistance should appear near 7763.00 to 7777.00 then 7939.00 to 7954.00 and the 8029.00 to 8044.00 region.
SEPT E-MINI SP500
Resistance should appear at 2107.50 and the 2126.00 to 2134.00 region. Beyond that a test of 2170.00 to 2185.00 is likely. Sellers should appear near 2219.00 to 2226.00
Support should appear near 2089.00 to 2080.00 and 2042.00 to 2034.00, a close under augurs for a test of 1996.00 to 1982.00 and the 1953.00 to 1946.00 region.
NASDAQ COMPOSITE
Resistance should appear 4915.00 to 4926.00. Beyond that sellers should appear near the 5056.00 to 5067.00 region and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 4785.00 to 4775.00 and the 4717.00 to 4695.00 region.
SEPT E-MINI NASDAQ 100
Support should appear near 4381.00 to 4370.00 then 4315.00 to 4304.00 and the 4183.00 to 4163.00 region.
Resistance is at 4446.00 then 4571.00 to 4582.00 and the 4639.00 to 4650.00 region.
SEPT E-MINI RUSSELL 2000
Resistance should appear near 1164.00 to 1169.00 and the 1192.00 to 1203.00 region.
Support should appear near the 1101.00 to 1096.00 and the 1068.00 to 1058.00 region.
SEPT 30 YR BONDS
Resistance should appear near 177-21 and 178-07 and 180-21 and 182-07.
Support should appear near 173-21 and 173-07. Below that 169-21 and 168-07 should hold.
SEPT 10 YR NOTES
Resistance should appear near 133-21 and 134-21. Beyond that a test of 137-07 and 138-21 is likely should cap a rally.
Support should appear near 132-07. Below that buyers should appear near 131-07 and 130-07.
THE FRENZIED FOREX FRONT
SEPT DOLLAR INDEX
Resistance should appear near 9625 to 9641, beyond that sellers should appear near 9706 to 9737. Support should appear near 9542 to 9526. Below that buyers should appear near 9445 to 9429.
JAPANESE YEN
Resistance should appear 9921 to 9937 and 10021 to 10037. Beyond that a test of the 10320 to 10360
region is likely. Support should appear near 9737 to 9706 and the 9542 to 9526 region.
SEPT EURO CURRENCY
Support should appear near 11155. A close under augurs for a test of the 11010 to 10960 region. Resistance should appear near 11227 and the 11300 to 11360 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 11500. SEPT SWISS FRANC
Resistance should appear near 10470 and 10580 to 10680.
Support should appear near 10136 to 10104 and 10037 to 10021.
SEPT BRITISH POUND
Support should appear near 13100 to 13040 and 12740 to 12680
Resistance should appear near 13340 to 13460 and the 13770 to 13830 region.
Traders can sell at 13337 and hold for lower prices.
SEPT CANADIAN DOLLAR
Resistance should appear near 7777 and the 7836 to 7864. Beyond that sellers should appear near 7939 to 7954 and 8029 to 8044. Well-heeled traders can sell at 7763 and risk a close over 7867 for three days in a row.
Support should appear near 7689 to 7675 and 7601 to 7587. Below that 7428 to 7414 should hold.
Traders should go short if a close under 7673 occurs
SEPT AUSSIE DOLLAR Resistance should appear near 7486 to 7513 then 7587 to 7601 and 7675 to 7689.
Support should appear near 7428 to 7414, a close under augurs for a test of the 7342 to 7328 region.
THE PRECIOUS METALS
AUGUST GOLD
Resistance should appear near the 1377 to 1383 and the 1415 to 1421 region.
Support should appear near 1310 to 1304 and the 1274.0 to 1268.0 region.
SEPT COPPER
Resistance should appear 22190 to 22260 and the 22670 to 22750 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 23150 to 23220. Support should appear near 21850 to 21700 and the 20890 to 20800 region.
SEPT SILVER
Resistance should appear near 2034 to 2042 and the 2126 to 2134 region where sellers should and cap a rally.
Support is at 1946.0 and 1909.0 to 1902.0. Below that buyers should appear near 1865 to 1858.0.
THE EXCITING ENERGIES
AUGUST CRUDE OIL
Support should appear near 4856 to 4845, a close under augurs for a test of 4650 to 4639 and the 4582 to 4571 region.
Resistance should appear near 4973 to 4995 and the 5056 to 5067 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 5127 to 5139.
SEPTEMBER CRUDE OIL
Support should appear near 4926 to 4915 and the 4856 to 4845 region. Resistance should appear near 5056 to 5067 then 5127 to 5139 and 5200 to 5211 Traders should go short if a close under 4912 occurs. SEPTEMBER BRENT CRUDE OIL
Support should appear near 4995 to 4973 and the 4785 to 4775 region. Resistance should appear near 5127 to 5139 and 5259 to 5282
AUGUST HEATING OIL
Support should appear near 14960 to 14840 and 14590 to 14530. Below that a test of 13830 to 13770 is likely.
Resistance should appear 15290 to 15350 and 15690 to 15760. Beyond that sellers should appear near 16090 to16150.
AUGUST UNLEADED GAS
Support should appear near 14960 to 14840. A close under augurs for a test of 14590 to 14530 and the 14210 to 14150 region. Traders should go short if a close under 14937 occurs.
Resistance should appear near 15290 to 15350 then 15690 to 15760 and the 16090 to 16150 region.
AUGUST NATURAL GAS
Support should appear near 2883 to 28740 and 2672 to 2663.
Resistance should appear near 3036 to 3045 and the 3148 to 3175 region.
THE GRANDE’ GRAINS
AUGUST SOYBEANS
Support should appear near 1150 then 1136 to 1130 and 1101 to 1096. Under that 1068 to 1058 should hold.
Resistance should appear near 1169 the 1192 to 1203. Beyond that sellers should appear near 1232 to 1238.
NOVEMBER SOYBEANS
Support should appear near 1130 and 1101 to 1096
Resistance should appear near 1164 to 1169 and 1192 to 1203.
AUGUST SOYOIL Support should appear near 3102 to 3092, a close under augurs for a test of the 3045 to 3036 region.
Resistance should appear near 3148 to 3157 and 3194 to 3213. BW Traders can sell at 3193 and hold for lower prices.
AUGUST SOYMEAL
Resistance should appear near 411.0 to 412.0 then 416.3 to 418.3 and the 423.8 to 424.9 region.
Support should appear near 386.7 to 385.8. Below that buyers should appear near 368.2 to 366.3.
SEPTEMBER CORN
Support should appear near 350 ¼ to 349 ¼ and the 338 ¾ to 337 ¾ region.
Resistance should appear near 366 ¼ to 368 ¼ and the373 ½ to 374 ¼ region.
SEPTEMBER WHEAT Support should appear near 405 ¾ to 404 ¾ and the 386 ¾ to 385 ¾ region.
Resistance should appear near 431 ½ and the 437 to 438 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 442 ½ to 444 ¾ region.
Stay tuned for Grain updates and flashes.
THE LIVELY LIVESTOCK
AUGUST CATTLE
Support should appear near 11010 to 10960 then 10890 and the 10680 to 10580 region. Resistance should appear near 11300 to 11360 then 11500 and the 11640 to 11690 region. Traders can sell at 11357 and hold for lower prices.
OCTOBER CATTLE
Support should appear near 11010 to 10960 then 10890 and the 10680 to 10580 region.
Resistance should appear near 11360 then 11500 and the 11640 to 11690 region.
JULY HOGS
Resistance should appear near 8300 to 8317 and 8397 to 8407 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 8482 to 8507
Support should appear near 8222 to 8192 and the 8137 to 8117 region. Below that a test of 8047 to 8027 is likely.
AUGUST HOGS
Resistance should appear near 8482 to 8507 and the 8557 to 8592 region. Traders can sell at 8482 and hold for lower prices.
Support should appear near 8317 to 8302 and the 8222 to 8192 region. Below that a test of 8137 to 8117 is likely. Traders should go short if a close under 8297 occurs.
THE SATISFYING SOFTS
SEPTEMBER COFFEE
Resistance should appear near 14840 to 14960. Beyond that sellers should appear near 15290 to 15350 and cap a rally. Support should appear near 14210 to 14150 then 13830 to 13770 and the 13100 to 13040 region.
SEPTEMBER COCOA Support should appear near 2937 to 2928 region, below that as test of 2883 to 2874 is likely. Resistance should appear near 3036 to 3045 and the 3092 to 3102 region. Traders can sell at 3029 and hold for lower prices. OCTOBER SUGAR Resistance is near 2080 to 2089 and 2126 to 2134 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 2170 to 2185. Traders can sell at 2167 and hold for lower prices. Support should appear near 2042 to 2034 and 1953 to 1940. DECEMBER COTTON Support should appear near 6509 to 6483 and 6430 to 6417, under that a test of 6350 to 6337 is likely. Resistance should appear near 6577 to 6591 and the 6659 to 6673 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 6743 to 6755 and cap a rally
Stay tuned for Flashes and Updates in all Markets
–A Ship in Harbor is Safe…But that is not what ships are built for –
Happy Trading!
Bill wil@futurescom.com
Sunday July 3rd 2016 2:00 PM South Florida Beach Time
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