FuturesCom Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook # 461 Sunday November 16, 2014. SP500 and Equity Indices • Bonds • Currency Trading • Forex • Precious Metals • Energy • Grains • Livestock • Coffee • Sugar • Cocoa • Cotton. Free Two Week Trial see https://futurescom.com/free-trial-2
Friday November 14, 2014
2:00 AM, South Florida Beach Time
Traders should stay nimble and stay tuned for flashes in all markets.
Geopolitical tensions remain elevated in front of the normal seasonal holiday period, volatility in stocks has somewhat subsided. Investors and traders should continue to hear babble government leaders, and finance representatives especially in the U.S as congress lines up to go battle with the president ‘tooth and nail’ and from various world leaders at the G-20 summit. U.S Stock Indices are higher on the year. Interest rates are at or near zero. The U.K FTSE 100 and German Dax are lower on the year. The Bank of England revised its growth forecasts for 2015 and 2016 down a tad. The BOE expects inflation to fall to 1% in the next six months. Traders should continue to use the volatility to trade the markets. Forex Markets; The euro remains lower on the year. Euro typically shows signs of strength into the end of the year, however longer term downside targets are still below current levels. Several regions of Europe remain a problem and the Ukraine situation is deteriorating and may spiral out of control once again. Cable is lower on the year, downside support is 15350 to 15290 and the trading range has expanded. Resistance is above the market at 16090 to 16150. The USD/CAD has rallied and should be a bit steady now. Over the longer term, USD/CAD targets are higher, USD/CAD can back and fill now and become a trading affair.
Dollar-Yen is trading higher on the year. On the downside support is at 1150.00 and 11300 to 11360 and the nearby targets on top at 11640 to 11690 have essentially been reached a sustained move over 11690 indicates a test of 11805 and eventually 11920 to 12030. Do not rule out higher tests USD/JPY down the road. Dollar Yen typically rises in this period, for now traders should consider Yen a trading affair. Currently Dollar / Yen is working on long term resistance going back 40 years. Long term we can see dollar-yen back up into the 140 region if that’s what the Japanese Government wants, maybe they don’t want that and it happens anyway.. The Aussie and Kiwi longer term downside targets are lower. The Kiwi and Aussie dollar are mixed on the year. Both are trading affairs. Aussie typically shows strength in the later part of November, last year the Aussie collapsed into December.
Analysis for overseas equity and foreign exchange markets are available upon request. For more detailed information or a country by county economic analysis for trading or hedging programs please call or email a request.
Precious Metals and Energy; our analysis will roll to February for Gold and to March for Silver and Copper. Gold and Silver remain weak longer term. Gold bounced nicely from a good low at the 1136 to 1130 region and is range bound now. Gold is a trading affair and typically can firm into the end of the year. Copper remains range bound, typically copper shows weakness into the end of the year and really has not gone anywhere. WTI Crude Oil, Brent Crude and the products are breaking down. Energies have bounced a bit and are trading affairs. Heating Oil and Unleaded Gas have years of price on top of the market and are now weak. Natural Gas is showing some support, and should get some help from weather. Grains have rallied sharply and act better, however the rallies are likely unsustainable and are a trading affair now. Livestock markets are a day to day trading affair. Typically Hogs act soft as the month ends and into next month.. Weather is also a factor in livestock and has been factored in already by the recent strength. Spreaders are beginning to buy April and Sell February Hogs. Stay tuned for flashes for all contract months in hogs. Coffee typically firms in November / December but remains pricey. March coffee can be bought for a bounce on weakness. Sugar and Cocoa are trading affairs and act badly. Cotton continues acts rather badly and is lower on the year. Look for some support in cotton near 5800 to 5500 and likely lower.
Stay tuned for flashes and updates in all markets
On to the Nitty Gritty…
THE SENSATIONAL STOCK AND BOND MARKET
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE
Support is near 17,125.00 then 16,960.00 to 16,890.00 and the 16,550.00 to 16,420.00 region where buyers should appear and contain a decline.
Resistance is at 17.740.00 to 17.800 and the 18,080.00 to 18,220.00 region.
DOW JONES TRANSPORTS
Support should appear near 8871.00 to 8856.00 and 8683.00 to 8668.00
Resistance is at 9140.00 to 9156.00 then 9316.00 to 9347.00 and the 9706.00 to 9737.00 region.
DECEMBER E-MINI SP500
Resistance should appear near 2042.00 and 2080.00 to 2089.00
Support should appear near 1996.00 to 1982.00 and 1953.00 to 1946.00, below that buyers should appear near 1929.00 to 1909.00. Traders can buy at for a bounce 1931.00 and plan on a risk of risk 10.00 points
NASDAQ COMPOSITE
Resistance should appear at 4695.00 to 4717.00 and the 4775.00 to 4785.00 region.
Support should appear near 4446.00 to 4425.00 and 4381.00 to 4370.00
DECEMBER E-MINI NASDAQ 100
Support should appear near 4056.00 to 4046.00 then 3992.00 to 3982.00 and the 3929.00 to 3909.00 region.
Resistance is at 4238.00 to 4249.00 and 4328.00 to 4249.00.
DECEMBER E-MINI RUSSELL 2000
Resistance should appear near the 1180.50 and the 1196.00 to 1203.00 region
Support should appear near 1136.00 to 1130.00 then 1101.00 to 1096.00 and 1068.00 to 1058.00
DECEMBER 30 YR BONDS
Resistance should appear near 142-12 and 142-27. Beyond that sellers should appear near 143-22
Support remains near 139-21. Below that 138-17 and 137-22 are likely to be tested.
DECEMBER 10 YR NOTE
Resistance should appear near 127-07 then 127-21 and 128-08
Support should appear near 125-22 then 125-07 and 124-22
THE FRENZIED FOREX FRONT
DECEMBER DOLLAR INDEX
Resistance should appear near 8856 to 8871 and 9044 to 9060
Support should appear near 8683 to 8668 and the 8589 to 8560 region.
DECEMBER JAPANESE YEN
Resistance should appear near 8762 to 8777 then 8871 to 8856 and 8934 to 8964.
Traders can sell at 8931 and hold for lower prices.
Support should appear near 8589 to 8560 and the 8406 to 8391 region.
DECEMBER EURO CURRENCY
Support should appear near the 12380 to 12320.
Resistance should appear near the 12680 to 12740 region.
Stay tuned for Flashes
DECEMBER SWISS FRANC
Resistance should appear near 10580 to 10630 and 10680.
Support should appear near 10360 to 10320, an extended close under is negative and augurs for at test of 10037 to 10021.
DECEMBER BRITISH POUND
Support should appear near 15350 to 15290 and 14960 to 14840
Resistance should appear near 15760 then 15922 and 16090 to 16150.
DECEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
Resistance should appear near 8905 then 8934 to 8964 and 9044 to 9060.
Support should appear near 8777 to 8762 and the 8683 to 8668 region
DECEMBER AUSSIE DOLLAR
Support should appear near 8589 to 8560 and the 8314 to 8300 region.
Resistance should appear near 8856 to 8871 and the 8934 to 8964 region.
THE PRECIOUS METALS
FEBRUARY GOLD
Resistance should appear near 1203.00 and 1232.0 to 1238.0
Support should appear near 1169.0 to 1164.0 then 1136 to 1130 and the 1101 to 1096 region.
MARCH COPPER
Resistance should appear near 30920 to 31020 and 31480 to 31570
Support should appear near 29370 to 29280, below that a test of 28830 to 28740 is likely.
MARCH SILVER
Support should appear near 1535 to 1529 and the 1496 to 1484 region.
Resistance is at 1642 to 1655 and the 1689 to 1696 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 1731.0 to 1738.0.
THE EXCITING ENERGIES
JANUARY CRUDE OIL
Support should appear near 7342 to 7328 then 7170 to 7143 and the 6755 to 6740 region.
Resistance should appear near 7675 to 7689 then 7763 to 7777 and 7836 to 7864
FEBRUARY CRUDE OIL
Support should appear near 7342 to 7328 then 7170 to 7143 and the 6755 to 6740 region.
Resistance should appear near 7675 to 7689 then 7763 to 7777 and 7836 to 7864. Beyond that sellers should appear near 8029 to 8044. Traders can sell at 8027 and hold for lower prices.
JANUARY BRENT CRUDE OIL
Resistance should appear near 8029 to 8044 then 8119 to 8134 and the 8300 to 8314 region.
Support should appear near 7513 to 7486 and the 7255 to 7242 region.
JANUARY HEATING OIL
Support should appear near 22750 to 22670 and the 21850 to 21700 region.
Resistance should appear 24110 to 24190 and the 24610 to 24690 region..
Traders can sell at 24605 and hold for lower prices.
JANUARY UNLEADED GAS
Support should appear 19960 to 19820.Below that a test of 19090 to 19020 and 17800 to 17740 region is likely
Resistance should appear near 20340 to 20420 and 21260 to 21340 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near the 22190 to 22260 region.
JANUARY NATURAL GAS
Resistance should appear the 4.238 to 4.249 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 4.370 to 4.381
Support should appear near 3.867 to 3.858. Below that buyers should appear near 3.682 to 3.663 and contain a decline.
THE GRANDE’ GRAINS
JANUARY SOYBEANS
Support should appear near 1013 ¾ to 1010 ½ and 973 ¾ to 970 ¾.
Resistance should appear near 1032 to 1036 then 1047 and the 1058 to 1068 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 1096 to 1101 and cap rallies.
JANUARY SOYOIL
Support should appear near 3157 to 3148 and the 3102 to 3092 region. Below that a test of 3045 to 3036 is likely.
Resistance should appear near 3261 to 3270 and the 3377 to 3386 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 3425 to 3443 and cap a rally. Traders can sell at 3367 and risk 100 points
JANUARY SOYMEAL
Resistance should appear near 385.8 to 386.7 and 390.9 to 392.9. Beyond that sellers should appear near 411.0 to 412.0 and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 361.3 to 362.3 and 356.3 to 355.3. Below that buyers should appear near 338.6 to 337.3
MARCH CORN
Support should appear near 374.3 to 373.4 and 368 ¼ to 366 ¼, below that a test of the
356 ¼ to 355 ¼ region is likely
Resistance should appear near 411 to 412 and the 416 ¼ to 418 ¼ region
MARCH WHEAT
Support should appear near 534 ½ to 535 ¾ and 521 ¼ to 520. Below that a test of 492 ¾ to 491 ½
is likely to occur.
Resistance should appear near 571 ¾ to 572 ¾ and the 585 ½ to 588 region
THE LIVELY LIVESTOCK
DECEMBER CATTLE
Support should appear near 16550 to 16420 and 16150 to 16090.
Resistance should appear near 17310 to 17380 and the 17740 to 17800 region.
FEBRUARY CATTLE
Support should appear near 16960 to 16890 and 16150 to 16090.
Resistance should appear near 17310 to 17380 and 17740 to 17800.
DECEMBER HOGS
Support should appear near 9157 to 9142, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of
9067 to 9042, below that buyers should appear near 8967 to 8937. Traders can buy at 8972 for a bounce and risk a close under 8932 for three days in a row.
Resistance should appear near 9427 to 9442 and 9527 to 9542
FEBRUARY HOGS
Support should appear near 9157 to 9137, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 9062 to 9042 and the 8967 to 8932 region.
Resistance should appear near 9312 to 9342 and 9427 to 9442 and 9527 to 9542
Aggressive Traders should go short if a close under 9227 occurs.
APRIL HOGS
Support should appear near 9347 to 9312 and the 9157 to 9137 region.
Resistance should appear near 9527 to 9542 and 9707 to 9737
THE SATISFYING SOFTS
MARCH COFFEE
Resistance should appear near 19820 to 19960 and 20800 to 20890
Support should appear near 19090 to 19020 and the 18650 to 18580 region. Below that buyers should appear near 18220 to 18080 and contain a decline… Stay tuned for Flashes
MARCH COCOA
Resistance should appear near 2874 to 2883 then 2928 to 2937 and the 3036 to 3045 region…
Support should appear near 2775 to 2758. Below that a test of 2724 to 2716 and the 2620 to 2612 region is likely Trade Accordingly
MARCH SUGAR
Resistance is near 1642 to 1655 then 1689 to 1696 and 1731 to 1738.
Support should appear near 1576 to 1569… Below that a test of 1535 to 1529 is likely.
MARCH COTTON
Support should appear near 5577 to 5553 and the 4995 to 4973 region.
Resistance is at 6165 to 6190 and 6335 to 6350 region.
Stay tuned for Flashes and Updates in all Markets
–A Ship in Harbor is Safe…But that is not what ships are built for –
Happy Trading!
Bill wil@futurescom.com
Friday November 14, 2014 2:30 PM South Florida Beach Time
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