FuturesCom Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook # 408 Sunday November 03 2012 SP500 and Equity Indices • Bonds • Forex • Precious Metals • Energy • Grains • Livestock • Coffee • Sugar • Cocoa • Cotton. Free Two Week Trial see https://futurescom.com/free-trial-2 .
Saturday November 3, 2012
6:00 AM South Florida Beach Time
“The ballot is stronger than the bullet.” Abraham Lincoln
The U.S General Election will be held on Tuesday and it’s a horserace, traders should remain nimble regarding all markets and expect more wild swings. Stay tuned for Flashes and Updates in all Markets.
The unemployment rate inched up from 7.8% in September to 7.9% in October. The lower close in October from September for the Dow was the first time since 2008. However Equity markets remain range-bound and we expect that to continue. Most equity investors are looking for a dramatic post-election rally. Wall Street has it figured out that no matter who wins the election the Stock market will rally and it typically does. However Traders should remain nimble and be willing to trade it.
We remain broadly dollar friendly and will stay that way. Buy Dips in the Dollar, Dollar/ Yen and Sell yen futures on Rallies. Sell euro and Swiss Francs on rallies and look for a range lower and still lower prices into spring. Canadian Dollar and Aussie Dollar are a trading affair, the same goes for the Kiwi stay tuned for Forex flashes. Friday’s declines in Gold and silver were sharp and indicate lower prices.
Ditto for copper (at least for the short term).Silver tends to make its lows near the end of November, however, it may easily test the summer lows. Sell a mid-month rally in Bean Oil and look for lows into the end of the year. Wheat tends to makes its highs now thru December and its lows in July, we want to look for a spot to sell Wheat and remain short into next year.
The Energy markets also closed badly on Friday, however geo-political worries can build quickly. We remain long but on the defensive. Be prepared to Sell rallies and Buy dips.
The rise in unemployment is not the right direction to boost meat demand. Meat supplies are tight, but prices are very high and the high unemployment rates mean a lot of people are unable to pay the high prices. Seasonally Cattle prices tend to firm a bit next week into the end of the month, then prices tend to get soft into mid-December. Thus look for a trading range. Hurricane Sandy disrupted hog movement on the east coast last week and Hog prices softened a bit last week and may edge lower offering a tradable range and spreading opportunities. Stay tuned for Livestock Flashes and Updates.
THE SENSATIONAL STOCK AND BOND MARKET
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE
Support should appear near the 13,100.00 to 13,040.00 region. Below buyers should appear near 12,890.00 and the 12,740.00 to 12,680.00 region, which should contain a decline.
Resistance should appear near 13,220.00, beyond that sellers should appear near the 13,340.00 to 13,460.00 region and cap a rally,
DECEMBER E-MINI SP500
Resistance should appear near 1415.00 to 1421.00 and 1437.00. Beyond that sellers should appear near the 1453.00 to 1459.00 region.
Support should appear near 1399.00 and the 1383.00 to 1377.00 region. Below that buyers should appear near 1361.50 and the1346.00 to 1334.00 region, which should contain a decline.
NASDAQ COMPOSITE
Resistance should appear near 3036.00 to 3045.00. Beyond that sellers should appear near 3092.00 to 3102.00 and the 3148.00 to 3157.00 region.
Support should appear near 2972.00 and the 2937.00 to 2928.00 region. Below that buyers should appear near the 2883.00 to 2874.00 region.
DECEMBER E-MINI NASDAQ 100
Support should appear near the 2620.00 to 2612.00 region. A close under is negative and augurs for a test of the 2568.00 to 2552.00 region. Under that buyers should appear near 2519.00 to 2511.00
Resistance should appear near 2663.00 to 2673 and the 2716.00 to 2724.00 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 2758.00 to 2775.00 and cap a rally.
DECEMBER E-MINI RUSSELL 2000
Resistance should appear near 819.40 to 822.30 and the 830.00 to 831.40 region. Beyond that 839.10 to 840.60 should cap a rally.
Support should appear near the 804.40 to 802.90 region… Below that a test of 795.40 to 793.90 is likely. Failure there is negative and augurs for a test of 777.70 to 776.30 which is likely to occur and should hold for now..
DECEMBER 30 YR BOND
Resistance should appear near 148-21 and 149-07, beyond that a test of 149-21 is likely which should cap a rally.
Support should appear near 147-21 and 147-07, below that a test of 146-21 is likely and should hold. .
DECEMBER 10 YR NOTE
Resistance should appear near 133-07 and the 133-21 to 134-07 region.
Support should appear near 132-07 and 131-21. Below that a test of 131-07 is likely
THE FRENZIED FOREX FRONT
DECEMBER DOLLAR INDEX
Resistance should appear near 8119 to 8134, A close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 8194 to 8223, eventually a test of 8300 to 8314 for the dollar down the road..
Support should appear near 8044 to 8029. Traders can buy at 8030 and hold for higher prices. Below that buyers should appear near the7954 to 7939 region.
DECEMBER JAPANESE YEN
Resistance should appear near 12530 and the 12680 to 12740 region. Traders can sell at 12527 and hold for lower prices…
Support should appear near the 12380 to 12320, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of the 12030 to 11920 region. ..Aggressive traders should consider going short if a close under 12317 occurs.
Stay tuned for flashes
DECEMBER EURO CURRENCY
Support should appear near the 12740 to 12680 region.
Resistance should appear near 12890 and 12967, beyond that sellers should appear near the 13040 to 13100 region. Traders can sell at 12887 and initially risk a close over 12967 for three days in a row.
DECEMBER SWISS FRANC
Resistance should appear near 10680 and 10820. Beyond that sellers should appear near 10960 to 11010. Traders can sell at 10817 and hold for lower prices.
Support should appear near 10580 region. A close under is negative and augurs for a test of 10470 and eventually the 10360 to 10320 region. Trade Accordingly
DECEMBER BRITISH POUND
Support should appear near 15922, below that a test of the 15760 to 15690 region is likely.
Resistance should appear near 16090 to 16150. Beyond that sellers should appear near 16287 and the 16420 to 16550 region. Sell Rallies
DECEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
Resistance should appear near 10104 to 10136 and 10228. Beyond that 10320 to 10360 should cap a rally.
Support should appear near 10021 and 9979, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 9937 to 9921.
DECEMBER AUSSIE DOLLAR
Resistance should appear near 10320 to 10360 and 10470. Beyond that sellers should appear near 10580 to 10680 cap a rally.
Support should appear near 10237, below that a test of 10185 and the 10136 to 10104 is likely.
Trade Accordingly and stay tuned for Forex Flashes ….
THE PRECIOUS METALS
DECEMBER GOLD
Resistance should appear near 1689 to 1696 and 1713.5, beyond that sellers should appear near the 1731.00 to 1738.00 region and cap a rally.
Support is near 1655.00 to 1642.00 and the 1615 to 1609 region, failure there is negative …
DECEMBER COPPER
Resistance should appear near 34930 to 35030 and the 35530 to 35630 region. Beyond that sellers should appear 36130 to 36230 and cap a rally
Support should appear near 34430 to 34250, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 33860 to 33770 and eventually the 33280 to 33190 region is likely.
DECEMBER SILVER
Resistance should appear near 3092 to 3102 and the 3148 to 3157 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 3194 to 3213 and cap a rally.
Support is at 2990 to 2972, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 2884 to 2883, below that buyers should appear near 2829 to 2820.
THE EXCITING ENERGIES
DECEMBER CRUDE OIL
Resistance should appear near 8667 to 8683 and the 8762 to 8777 region, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 8934 to 8964 and the 9044 to 9060 region, Which should cap rallies for now
Support should appear near 8406 to 8391 and the 8314 to 8300 region. Below that buyers should appear near 8044 to 8029.
DECEMBER HEATING OIL
Support should appear near 28830 to 28740 and the 28290 to 28200 region. Where buyers should appear and contain a decline.
Resistance should appear near 2920 to 29900 and the 30360 to 30450, beyond sellers should appear near 30920 to 31020 and cap a rally.
DECEMBER UNLEADED GAS
Resistance should appear near 26120 to 26200 and the 26630 to 26720 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 27580 to 27750.
Support should appear near 25680 to 25520 and the 24690 to 24610 region.
Stay tuned for Flashes…
DECEMBER NATURAL GAS
Resistance should appear at 3613 to 3623 and 3734 to 3745 region.
Support should appear near 3328 to 3319 and the 3213 to 3194 region. Below that buyers should appear near 3213 to 3194 and contain a decline.
THE GRANDE’ GRAINS
JANUARY SOYBEANS
Support should appear near 1496 to 1489 and the 1459 to 1453 region. Below that buyers should appear near the 1421 to 1415.
Resistance should appear near 1529 to 1535 and the 1569 to 1576 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near the 1609 to 1615 region
DECEMBER SOYMEAL
Resistance should appear near 477.5 to 478.5 and the 484.5 to 485.6 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near the 491.5 to 492.6 region.
Support should appear near 458.2 to 457.1 and the 444.6 to 442.5 region. .
DECEMBER SOYBEAN OIL
Resistance should appear near 4973 to 4995 and the 5056 to 5067 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 5127 to 5139. Traders can sell 5127and hold for lower prices.
Support should appear near 4926 to 4915 and the 4856 to 4845 region, below that a test of 4785 to 4775 is likely. Sell Rallies …
DECEMBER CORN
Support should appear near 734 ¼ to 742 ¾. Below that buyers should appear near 717 to 714 ¾ and the 691 ¾ to 690 ¾ region.
Resistance should appear near 767 ½ to 768 ¾… Beyond that sellers should appear near 776 ¾ to 777 ¾ and cap a rally.
DECEMBER WHEAT
Resistance should appear near 885 ¾ to 887 ¼ and 904 ½ to 906, which should cap a rally.
Support should appear near 849 ¾ to 848 ½… Below that buyers should appear near 831 ½ to 830 and the 804 ½ to 804 region.
THE LIVELY LIVESTOCK
DECEMBER CATTLE
Support should appear near 12530, below that a test of the12380 to 12320 region is likely.
Traders can buy at 12387 and risk a close under 12307…
Resistance should appear near 12740 and 12890. Beyond that 1340 to 13100 should cap a rally
FEBRUARY CATTLE
Support should appear near 12892 and the12742 to 12677 region.
Resistance should appear near 13040 to 13100 and 13220
DECEMBER HOGS
Support should appear near 7692 to 7682 and the 7602 to 7587 region, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 7512 to 7487
Resistance should appear near 7837 to 7867 and 7937 to 7957. Beyond that sellers should appear near 8027 to 8042 and cap a rally.
FEBRUARY HOGS
Resistance should appear near 8407 and the 8482 to 8502 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 8662 to 8682 and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 8317 to 8302, below that a test of 8222 to 8192 is likely. .
Stay tuned for Livestock Flashes and Updates.
THE SATISFYING SOFTS
DECEMBER COFFEE
Support should appear near 15350 to 15290 and 14960 to 14840.
Resistance should appear near 15690 to 15760, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 16090 to 16150 and 16420 to 16550… Trade accordingly…
Stay tuned for Flashes and Trade accordingly
DECEMBER COCOA
Resistance should appear near 2511 to 2519 and the 2552 to 2568 region… Beyond that sellers should appear near 2612 to 2620 and cap a rally.
Support should appear near the 2419 to 2411 region… A close under is negative and augurs for a test of 2370 to 2354 and the 2322 to 2315 region.
MARCH SUGAR
Support is at 1909 to 1902 and the 1865 to 1858 region… Under that buyers should appear near 1822 to 1808, Traders can buy at 1823 and risk 30 points.
Resistance should appear near 1982 to 1996 and 2034 to 2042, beyond that 2080 to 2089 should cap a rally.
DECEMBER COTTON
Support should appear near 6755 to 6743 and the 6350 to 6337 region
Resistance is near 7143 to 7170 and 7328 to 7342 region.
Stay tuned for Flashes and Updates in all Markets
–A Ship in Harbor is Safe…But that is not what ships are built for —
Happy Trading!
Bill wil@futurescom.com
Sunday November 04, 2012
10:45 AM ET South Florida Beach Time
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FuturesCom Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook # 408 Sunday November 03, 2012 Equity Indices – Treasuries – Forex – Precious Metals – Energy – Grains – Livestock – Softs
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