FuturesCom Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook # 430 September 08 2013 SP500 and Equity Indices • Bonds • Currency Trading • Forex • Precious Metals • Energy • Grains • Livestock • Coffee • Sugar • Cocoa • Cotton. Free Two Week Trial see https://futurescom.com/free-trial-2
“The history of free men is never written by chance but by choice – their choice.”
― Dwight D. Eisenhower
Saturday September 07, 2013
5:00 AM South Florida Beach Time
On Friday US Stock markets closed mixed after a wide volatile session in response to U.S payroll data, comments from U.S Federal Reserve officials and those present at the G-20 meeting. Testimony and comments from numerous government officials concerning possible military action in Syria should continue next week. President Obama will have media interviews on Monday and will address ‘the people’ on Tuesday regarding Syria. Therefore, Washington and possible military action in Syria should take center stage for investors and the media all week. The ‘babble’ with be thick and constant.
Traders should stay nimble and tune in for Day Trades, BW flashes, Updates and additional detailed commentary for all markets.
Later this month and during October investors and traders will be looking for direction from numerous votes in the U.S. Congress concerning budgets and the debt ceiling (with political battles and possible Gov’t shut downs). Plus, a plethora of predictions regarding the next Fed Chairman and the
all-important taper or no taper at the next Fed meeting (and how much) should be an attention grabber.
Stock and Index traders should look for increased volatility in preparation for October and November which is typically the best time of the year for buy and hold strategies. Long term yearly technical patterns for U.S. stock index averages remain friendly. Recent action has been sloppy and the long term work does not rule out a downturn. The NASDAQ Composite and Nasdaq 100 act well and can remain firm. Seasonally the Nasdaq 100 typically acts better during the first half of September. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has been sloppy and continues to struggle. Expect a two way stock market for now. The long term technical work for 30 Year U.S Treasury futures remains bearish.
Previous Bi-Weekly Outlooks have gone over some overseas markets long term. Protectionism is starting to show up in a variety of places. Several countries hurt by capital flows have raised rates to offset currency meltdowns. This may slow growth in those nations but should ameliorate the Forex volatility for now, but may seed unrest by populations. If you need detailed analysis regarding overseas equity markets or volatile emerging economies foreign exchange markets please call the office or email a request.
US Dollar erosion has somewhat reversed, the Euro failed to sustain its rally once it ran into the 13340 to 13460 region. EU problems are not over and the long term remains negative. A weaker Euro is eventually positive for exports. If the Euro fails to hold 13100 to 13040 a test of 12740 to 12680 should not be ruled out. Foreign exchange traders should continue to treat Japanese Yen futures as a trading affair. Long term spot USD/JPY remains bullish (bearish for Yen Futures) trader and investor emphasis should now be accumulation on the long side for spot dollar-yen and continue to nibble on dips. Futures Traders should look to sell a rally in Dec Futures. Cable is range-bound trading affair. The Canadian Dollar, Aussie Dollar and Kiwi all recovered from weakness and have bounced.
Stay tuned for Forex Flashes for new trades in Forex.
Crude Oil ended firm last week on the back of Syrian confusion along with growing U.S. and global economies. Geopolitical issues, such as preparation for some sort of U.S. military action in Syria using planes and missiles along with advisors from the U.S. training rebels in other countries has helped Crude Oil prices move higher and has been supportive. Higher prices appear to be in front of the Crude Oil market rather than behind. Weather can also come into play, although weathermen have revised their estimates down for tropical development since little activity has occurred. Over the long term prices can accelerate. Investors and traders should not be surprised to see higher prices. Traders should get back long Crude Oil and Heating Oil and possibly remain long for the duration of the winter. Unleaded gas acts better and traders should trade it from both sides to take advantage of price volatility.
Gold and Silver along with Copper have had wide ranges with some recovery in prices. Precious metals are volatile and lower on the year. If year-end price levels are achieved acceleration to higher levels may occur. Expect more volatility in gold and silver and stay tuned for flashes. Traders should buy dips.
Soybeans have been aided by hot weather which has provided the fuel to propel beans higher and keep cash firm. Corn rallied and then fell. Wheat has been stuck in a trading range. South American Soybean planting reports will be a focus next week as well as the USDA Crop report. On Sept. 12, the USDA will release their monthly crop reports. In livestock, Live Cattle fell and we exited the longs. Cash Hogs prices fell but not enough to satisfy the short side, the result was Lean Hogs were at or near contract highs on Friday. Grain and Livestock trading this week should be more suited for day trading and medium term trading. Stay tuned for BW Flashes as well as Day Trades.
Seasonally coffee tends to act far better in September thru November then firm into December and into springtime. We remain friendly for now. Well-heeled traders should consider adding to longs on weakness with tight stops or simply looking for a better tone to coffee and begin accumulation for higher prices into end of year and perhaps early spring. Cocoa is up on the year and should be considered a trading affair with a broad range. Cocoa is overbought and dip cannot be ruled out. Cocoa is higher on the year and that’s friendly. The firm reaction from lower levels has sustained a positive tone. Sugar supplies are still large and continue to overhang market. Seasonally sugar tends to bottom in August thru September and acts better into year end. Traders should focus now on March Sugar for trading on either side of the range bound sugar market. Cotton is higher on the year, remains near broad based support and continues to be a trading affair as it backs and fills.
Traders should stay nimble and tune in for Day Trade and BW flashes, Updates and additional detailed commentary for all markets…. Onto the Nitty Gritty…
THE SENSATIONAL STOCK AND BOND MARKET
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE
Support should appear near is near 14,840.00 and has so far has barely contained a decline.
Below that a test of the 14,590.00 to 14,530.00 is likely to occur. Failure there indicates a test of 14,210.00 to 14,150.00
Resistance should appear near 15,125.00 then 15,290.00 to 15,350.00 and the 15,690.00 to 15,760.00 region.
DEC E-MINI SP500
Resistance should appear near 1655.00 then 1672.00 and the1689 to 1696 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 1731.00 to 1738.00.
Nearby Support should appear near 1642.00. Below that buyers should appear near 1628.50 and 1615.00 to 1609.00. Traders who have ice water running thru their veins can buy at 1615.25 and risk a close under 1607.00 for three days in a row. Below that 1576.00 to 1569.00 should contain a decline.
NASDAQ COMPOSITE
Resistance should appear near 3663 to 3682, beyond that a test of 3734.00 to 3743 is likely and should cap a rally for a bit.
Support should appear near 3623 to 3613 and 3563.00 to 3553.00 .
DEC E-MINI NASDAQ 100
Support should appear near 3102.00 to 3092.00 and 3045.00 to 3036.00. Traders can buy at 3102.00 and risk a close under 3091.00 for three days in a row. Below that buyers should appear near 3045.00 to 3036.00 and the 2990.00 to 2972.00 region.
Resistance should appear near the 3148.00 to 3157.00 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 3194.00 to 3213.00 and cap a rally.
DEC E-MINI RUSSELL 2000
Resistance should appear at 1032.00 to 1036.00 then 1047.00 and the 1058.00 to 1068.00 region which should cap a rally.
Support should appear near 1013.60 to 1010.40 and the 1003.70 to 1002.10 region
Stay tuned for Index Flashes.
DEC 30 YR BOND
Resistance should appear near 129-07 and 129-21. Beyond that sellers should appear near 130-21 and 131-07 which should cap a rally.
Support should appear near 128-21 and 128-07. Below that a test of 127-21 and 126-07 is likely.
DEC 10 YR NOTE
Resistance should appear near 123-21 and 124-07 and 124-21. Beyond that sellers should appear near 124-21 and 125-21 which should cap a rally.
Support should appear near 122-07 and 121-21. Below that buyers should appear near 120-21 then 119-21 and contain a decline.
THE FRENZIED FOREX FRONT
DEC DOLLAR INDEX
Resistance should appear near 8300 to 8314. Beyond that sellers should appear near 8391 to 8406 and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 8223 to 8194. Below that buyers should appear near 8134 to 8119 and contain a decline. Below that a test of 8044 to 8029 is likely.
DEC JAPANESE YEN
Resistance should appear near 10104 to 10136 and 10182. Traders can sell at 10177 and hold for lower prices. Beyond that sellers should appear near 10237 and the 10320 to 10360 region and cap a rally. Traders can sell at 10317 and risk a close over 10367 for three days in a row.
Support should appear near 10037 to 10021 and the 9937 to 9921 region. Traders should go short if a close under 10017 occurs
DEC EURO CURRENCY
Support should appear near 13100 to 13040. Below that buyers should appear near the
12740 to 12680 region.
Nearby resistance should appear near 13220. Beyond that a test of 13304 to13460 is likely with sellers coming out of the woodwork near the 13770 to 13830 region.
DEC SWISS FRANC
Resistance should appear near 10820 and 10960 to 11010, beyond that a test of 11300 to 11360 is likely to occur and should cap a rally.
Support should appear near 10580 which should hold. Below that a test of 10470 and the 10360 to 10320 region is likely to occur.
DEC BRITISH POUND
Support should appear near 15525 and the 15350 to 15290 region. Traders can buy at 15527 and risk a close under 15487 for three days in a row.
Resistance should appear near the 15690 to 15760 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 16090 to 16150 and cap a rally.
DEC CANADIAN DOLLAR
Resistance should appear near 9625 to 9641. Beyond that sellers should appear near 9706 to 9737 and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 9542 to 9526 and 9445 to 9429, below that a test of 9347 to 9316 is likely.
DEC AUSSIE DOLLAR
Support should appear near 9060 to 9044 and the 8964 to 8934 region.
Resistance should appear near 9140 to 9156 and 9316 to 9347.
Beyond that a test of 9429 to 9445 is likely.
THE PRECIOUS METALS
DECEMBER GOLD
Resistance should appear near 1415 to 1421, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of
1453 to 1459.
Support is near 1383 to 1377 then 1361.5 and the 1346 to 1334 region.
DEC COPPER
Resistance should appear near 33190 to 33280 and the 33770 to 33860. Beyond that sellers should appear near 34250 to 34430 which should cap a rally.
Support should appear near 32610 and the 32130 to 31940 region, failure there augurs for a test of 31570 to 31480.
DECEMBER SILVER
Support should appear near 2370 to 2354 and the 2322 to 2315 region. Traders can buy at 2372 and hold for higher prices. Below that 2275 to 2267 should hold.
Resistance at the 2411 to 2419, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 2461 to 2469 and eventually the 2511 to 2519 region. Beyond that a test of 2552 to 2568 is likely.
THE EXCITING ENERGIES
OCT CRUDE OIL
Resistance should appear near 11300 to 11360. A close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 10815 and eventually the 11640 to 11690 region.
Support should appear near 11010 to 10960 and 10820. Traders should buy at 10892 for a bounce and hold for higher prices. Below that buyers should appear near the 10680 to 10580 region.
Stay tuned for flashes
NOV CRUDE OIL
Resistance should appear near 10960 to 11010. A close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 11155 and eventually the 11300 to 11360 region.
Support should appear near 10820 and 10680 to 10580. Below that buyers should appear near the 10360 to 10320 region. Traders should go long if a close over 11017 occurs. Stay tuned for flashes
OCT HEATING OIL
Support should appear near should appear near 31570 to 31480 and 31020 to 30920. Below that buyers should appear near the 30450 and 30360 region and should hold.
Resistance should appear 31940 to 32130 and the 32610 to 32700 region. Beyond that a test of 33190 to 33280 is likely. Stay tuned for flashes
OCT UNLEADED GAS
Support should appear near 28290 to 28200 and the 28290 to 28200 region.
Resistance should appear near 29280 to 29370 and 30360 to 30450.
OCT NATURAL GAS
Resistance should appear at 3613 to 3623, beyond that a test of 3662 to 3682 and the 3858 to 3867 region is likely.
Support should appear near 3442 to 3425 and 3328 to 3319 which should hold.
THE GRANDE’ GRAINS
NOV SOYBEANS
Support should appear near 1310 to 1304. Below that 1274 to 1268 should provide support.
Resistance should appear near 1377 to 1383. Beyond that sellers should appear near the 1415 to 1421 region and should provide resistance.
Trade accordingly.
DEC SOYOIL
Resistance should appear near 4370 to 4381, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 4425 to 4426. Beyond that Sellers should appear near 4503 to 4514.
Support should appear near 4183 to 4163 and the 4056 to 4046 Region. Below that 3992 to 3982 should contain a decline.
DEC SOYMEAL
Resistance should appear near 430.4 to 431.5 and the 442.5 to 444.6 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 457.1 to 458.2 and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 405.6 to 404.6 and the 399.2 to 398.2 region, below that buyers should appear near the 386.7 to 385.8 region and contain a decline.
DEC CORN
Support should appear near 458 ¼ to 457 ¼ and the 431 ½ to 430 ¾ region.
Resistance should appear near 477 ¾ to 478 ¾, beyond that a test of 491 ½ to 493 ¾ should bring out sellers. Beyond that a test of 505 ¾ to 506 ¾ is likely
DEC WHEAT
Resistance should appear near 665 ¾ to 667 ¼ and 674 ¾ to 675 ½.
Support should appear near 643 to 641 ¾ and the 635 to 633 ¾ region.
THE LIVELY LIVESTOCK
OCT CATTLE
Support should appear near 12537. Below that buyers should appear near 12447 and the 12380 to 12320 region, which should hold.
Resistance should appear near 12680 to 12740, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 12817. Beyond that sellers should appear near 13040 to 13100.
DEC CATTLE
Support should appear near 12892. Below that buyers should appear near 12740 to 12680 and 12532.
Resistance should appear near 13040 to13100. A close over indicates an eventual test of 13340 to 13460.
OCT HOGS
Support should appear near 9062 to 9042 and 8967 to 8932. Below that buyers should appear 8872 to 8857 and the 8777 to 8762 region, which should contain a decline.
Resistance should appear near 9137 to 9157. Beyond that a test of 9312 to 9347 is likely and should cap a rally. Above that sellers should appear near 9427 to 9442.
DEC HOGS
Support should appear near 8592 to 8562 and the 8507 to 8492 region. Below that buyers should appear near 8407 to 8392.
Resistance should appear near 8762 to 8777 and the 8857 to 8872 region. Beyond that a test of 8932 to 8967 is likely.
FEB HOGS
Support should appear near 8777 to 8762 and the 8682 to 8662 region. Below that buyers should appear near 8587 to 8557 and contain a decline.
Resistance should appear near 8857 to 8872 region. Beyond that a test of 8932 to 8967 and the 9042 to 9062 region is likely.
THE SATISFYING SOFTS
DEC COFFEE
Support should appear near 11690 to 11640. Failure there augurs for a test of 11360 to 11300 and should contain a decline.
Resistance should appear near 11920 to 12030, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of the 12680 to 12740 region. Beyond that a test of 13040 to 13100 is likely.
DECEMBER COCOA
Resistance should appear near 2588. Beyond that sellers should appear near 2612 to 2620 and cap a rally. Traders can sell at 2611 and initially risk a close over 2622 for three days in a row.
Support should appear near the 2519 to 2511 and the 2469 to 2461 region. Below that buyers should appear near 2419 to 2411. Traders can buy at 2472 for a bounce and risk a close under 2457 for three days in a row. Stay tuned for Flashes
MARCH SUGAR
Resistance is near the 1731 to 1738 region, beyond that a test of 1774 to 1780 is likely.
Support should appear near 1696 to 1689 and the 1655 to 1642 region.
DEC COTTON
Support should appear near 8314 to 8300 and 8044 to 8029. Below that 7777 to 7763 should contain a decline.
Resistance is 8668 to 8683 and the 9044 to 9060 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 9140 to 9156 and cap a rally.
Stay tuned for Flashes and Updates in all Markets
–A Ship in Harbor is Safe…But that is not what ships are built for –
Happy Trading!
Bill wil@futurescom.com
Sunday September 08, 2013 7:30 AM South Florida Beach Time
THIS PUBLICATION IS SUBJECT TO REVISIONS AND CONTAINS THE VIEW AND OPINIONS OF THE AUTHOR, EXCEPT WHERE OPINIONS ARE ATTRIBUTED TO OTHER SOURCES. WRITTEN PERMISSION IS REQUIRED PRIOR TO ANY DISTRIBUTION OR REPRODUCTION. FUTURES AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING IS RISKY AND CAN CAUSE SUBSTANTIAL FINANCIAL LOSS. THE USE OF OPTIONS AND OPTION TRADING INVOLVES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK. THE USE OF STOPS MAY NOT LIMIT LOSSES TO INTENDED AMOUNTS. SPREAD POSITIONS MAY NOT BE LESS RISKY THAN OUTRIGHT FUTURES POSITIONS, FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND OPTIONS. TRADING FUTURES AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE ON MARGIN CARRIES A HIGH LEVEL OF RISK AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. PLEASE TRADE WITH CAPITAL YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. NO SOLICITATION IS MADE HERE FOR INDIVIDUALS TO BUY OR SELL FUTURES CONTRACTS, FOREIGN EXCHANGE OR OPTION MARKET. SOURCES ARE BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE BUT NO ASSURANCE IS MADE FOR ACCURACY. READERS ARE SOLEY RESPONSIBLE FOR HOW THEY USE THE INFORMATION AND FOR THEIR RESULTS. YOU SHOULD BE AWARE OF ALL THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH FUTURES AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND SEEK ADVICE FROM AN INDEPENDENT FINANCIAL ADVISOR IF YOU HAVE ANY DOUBTS, THE HIGH DEGREE OF LEVERAGE THAT IS OFTEN OBTAINABLE IN FUTURES AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING CAN WORK AGAINST YOU AS WELL AS FOR YOU. THE USE OF LEVERAGE CAN LEAD TO LARGE LOSSES AS WELL AS GAINS. INTERNET RISKS ; THERE ARE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH UTILIZING AN INTERNET BASED SERVICE INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, FAILURE OF HARDWARE, SOFTWARE AND INTERNET CONNECTION, FUTURESCOM EMPLOYS BACK-UP SYSTEMS AND CONTINGENCY PLANS TO MINIMIZE THE POSSIBILITY OF SYSTEM FAILURE
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