FuturesCom Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook # 433 October 20 2013 SP500 and Equity Indices • Bonds • Currency Trading • Forex • Precious Metals • Energy • Grains • Livestock • Coffee • Sugar • Cocoa • Cotton. Free Two Week Trial see https://futurescom.com/free-trial-2
Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook # 433
Sunday October 20, 2013
Equity Indices • Treasuries • Forex • Precious Metals • Energy • Grains • Livestock • Softs
If a man is both wise and lucky, he will not make the same mistake twice. But he will make any one of the ten thousand brothers or cousins of the original. The mistake family is so large that there is always one of them around… –Reminiscences of a Stock operator –
Sunday October 20 2013
5:00 AM South Florida Beach Time
Traders should stay nimble and tune in for Day Trades, BW flashes and Updates for all markets.
A U.S Economic Calendar for next week is attached to this week’s letter. Analysis for overseas equity and foreign exchange markets into year-end is available, for more information please call the office or email a request. U.S Stocks Indices all made new recent highs, with the Dow Jones lagging a bit as the SP500 and Russell 2000 made new all-time highs on Friday. Long term yearly technical patterns for U.S. stock index averages remain friendly. Traders should buy dips and be wary of the volatility and look for two-way trading for a bit. October and November is typically the best time of the year for Buy and Hold strategies. Last week the U.S. Dollar Index was soft as stocks rallied, look for Dollar weakness to abate over the next few weeks and a range of steady to higher to begin.
Seasonally the Aussie can remain firm against the CHF and Cable until well into November, additionally the Dollar typically holds well against the Canadian dollar into Late December. Dollar-Yen typically levels off over the next few weeks and tends to begin its ascent into spring. We expect the Finance Ministers in Japan to aggressively push for Yen weakness against the dollar. Forex traders should remain long Dollar-Yen and buy dips or traders can sell futures for a trade. Look for cable to be range bound after higher levels perhaps against 16420 to 16550 is tested. Stay tuned for Forex flashes.
The weak or at least steady to lower U.S. dollar is generally bullish for raw commodity markets. Seasonally Silver and Gold tend to firm a bit over the next two weeks while Crude historically tends drift lower during the second half of October. That said Crude Oil does not act bad, sloppy but not bad. Unless lingering geopolitical risks surface (and it’s likely they will eventually) Crude Oil can trade range-bound to lower. Ditto for Heating Oil, Heating Oil can turn quickly into a weather market over the next few months. Overall the energy markets are now a trading affair.
Meanwhile the USDA went back to work on Thursday. Look for the normal set of USDA market reports to begin in this week. We will be sending out updates and medium term trading ideas for agricultural markets over the next few days. The USDA has also announced that its October Cattle on Feed report has been postponed until October 31 when monthly Cold Storage, Livestock Slaughter the Chicken and Eggs reports will be released. October Crop Production and WASDE reports have been cancelled. The next WASDE is scheduled for November 8. Onto the Nitty Gritty
THE SENSATIONAL STOCK AND BOND MARKET
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE
Support should appear near the 15,350.00 to 15,290.00. Below that 15,125.00 should hold. Failure of 15,125.00 indicates a test of 14,960.00 to 14,840.00 is likely where buyers should contain declines.
Resistance should appear near 15,520.00. Beyond that sellers should appear near 15,690.00 to 15,760.00 and cap a rally.
DEC E-MINI SP500
Resistance should appear near 1752.00 then 1774.00 to 1780 and the 1808.00 to 1822.00 region,
where sellers should appear and cap a rally
Nearby Support should appear near the 1731.00 and 1713.50. Below that buyers should appear near 1696.00 to 1689.00 BW Traders can buy at 1697 and hold for higher prices.
Aggressive Traders should go long if a close over 1738.75 occurs.
NASDAQ COMPOSITE
Resistance should appear near 3909.00 to 3929.00, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 3982.00 to 3992.00. Beyond that a test of the 4046.00 to 4056.00 region is likely.
Support should appear near 3867.00 to 3858.00 and 3806.00 to 3795.00, where buyers should contain declines.
DEC E-MINI NASDAQ 100
Support should appear near 3328.00 to 3319.00 and the 3270.00 to 3261.00 region. Traders can buy at 3271.00 and risk a close under 3259.00 for three days in a row. Below that buyers should appear near 3213.00 to 3194.00 and contain a decline.
Resistance should appear near 3377.00 to 3386.00, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of and the 3425.00 to 3443.00 region
DEC E-MINI RUSSELL 2000
Resistance should appear at 1130.00 to 1136.00. Beyond that a test of 1164.00 to 1169.00 is likely
Support should appear near 1101.00 to 1096.00 and 1068.00 to 1058.00.
Stay tuned for Index Flashes.
DEC 30 YR BOND
Resistance should appear near 134-21 and 135-07, above that a test of 135-21 and 136-07 is likely.
Support should appear near 133-21 and 133-07. Below that buyers should appear near 132-21 and should hold.
DEC 10 YR NOTE
Resistance should appear near 127-07 then 127-21 and 128-07. Beyond that a test of 128-21 and
129-07 is likely and should cap a rally.
Support should appear near 126-07 and 125-21. Below that buyers should appear near 125-07 and then 124-21and should contain a declines
THE FRENZIED FOREX FRONT
DEC DOLLAR INDEX
Resistance should appear near 8029 to 8044 and 8119 to 8134
Nearby support should appear near 7954 to 7939, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 7864 to 7836. Below that buyers should appear near 7777 to 7763.
DEC JAPANESE YEN
Resistance should appear near 10320 to 10360 and 10470. Traders can Sell at 10313 and hold for lower prices.
Support should appear near 10185. Below that a test of 10136 to 10104 is likely.
DEC EURO CURRENCY
Support should appear near 13615 and 13460 to 13400 and 13340.
Resistance should appear near the 13770 to 13830 region and should cap rallies. Traders can sell at 13763 and risk a close over 13837 for three days in a row. Beyond that resistance should appear near
13910 and 13390.
DEC SWISS FRANC
Resistance should appear near 11155, beyond that a test of 11300 to 11360 is likely to occur and should cap a rally. Traders can sell at 11297 and hold for lower prices.
Support remains near 11010 to 10960. A close under is negative and augurs for a test of 10820 and the 10680 to 10580 region, which should hold.
DEC BRITISH POUND
Support should appear near 16150 to 16090 and 15925.
Resistance should appear near the 16420 to 16550 region.
DEC CANADIAN DOLLAR
Resistance should appear near 9706 to 9737 and 9821 to 9845. Traders can sell at 9777 and risk a close over 9847 for three days in a row.
Support should appear near 9641 to 9625 and 9542 to 9526.
DEC AUSSIE DOLLAR
Support should appear near 9625 and the 9542 to 9526 region. Below that buyers should appear near
9445 to 9429 can contain a decline.
Resistance should appear near 9706 to 9737 beyond that a test of 9821 to 9837 and the 9921 to 9937 region is likely. Traders should go long if a close over 9643 occurs
THE PRECIOUS METALS
DECEMBER GOLD
Resistance should appear near 1334.0 to 1346.0. A close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 1377 to 1383 and the 1453.0 to 1459.0 region.
Support is near 1310.00 to 1304.0 then 1289.00 and the 1274.0 to 1268.0 region.
DEC COPPER
Resistance should appear near 33770 to 33860. Beyond that sellers should appear near 34250 to 4430 which should cap a rally.
Support should appear near 32700 to 32610 and 32130 to 31940 region.
DECEMBER SILVER
Support should appear near 2185 to 2170.00 and the 2134 to 2126 region.
Resistance at the 2219.0 to 2226.0, a close over or sustained rally over is friendly and augurs for a test of 2267.0 to 2274.0 and the 2354.0 to 2370.0 region.
THE EXCITING ENERGIES
DEC CRUDE OIL
Resistance should appear near 10136 and 10185. Beyond that sellers should appear near 10320 to 10360 and 10470.
Support should appear near 10037 to 10021. Below that a test of 9937 to 9921 is likely.
DEC HEATING OIL
Support should appear near should appear near 29900 to 29720 and 29370 to 29280.
Below that buyers should appear near 28830 to 28740
Resistance should appear 30360 to 30450, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 30920 to 31020, beyond that a test of 31480 to 31570 is likely.
DEC UNLEADED GAS
Support should appear near 25680 to 25620 and the 25190 to 25110 region. Where buyers should appear and contain a decline.
Resistance should appear near 26630 to 26720 and the 27580 to 27750 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 28200 to 28290 and cap a rally.
DEC NATURAL GAS
Resistance should appear at 3909 to 3939 and the 3982 to 3992 region.
Support should appear near 3806 to 3795 and the 3663 and the 3563 to 3553 region which should hold.
THE GRANDE’ GRAINS
JAN SOYBEANS
Support should appear near 1274 to 1268 and should continue to provide support. Below that Buyers should appear near 1238.00 to 1232.00
Resistance should appear near 1304 to 1310, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 1334 to 1346 and 1377 to 1383. Beyond that sellers should appear near the 1415 to 1421 region and should provide resistance. Trade accordingly.
DEC SOYOIL
Resistance should appear near 4238 to 4249 and the 4370 to 4381 region.
Support should appear near 4120 to 4110 and the 4056 to 4046 region, which should contain declines.
DEC SOYMEAL
Resistance should appear near 416.3 to 418.3 and close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 430.4 to 431.5 and the 442.5 to 444.6 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 457.1 to 458.2 and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 405.6 to 404.6 and the 399.2 to 398.2 region, below that buyers should appear near the 386.7 to 385.8 region and contain a decline.
DEC CORN
Support should appear near and 438 ¼ to 437 and the 418 ¼ to 416 ¼ region.
Resistance should appear near 463 ¾ to 465 and the 477 ¾ to 478 ¾ region.
DEC WHEAT
Resistance remains near 707 ½ to 708 ¾ and the 714 ¼ to 717 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 732 ¾ to 734 ½.
Support should appear near support should appear near 700 ¼ to 699 and the 691 ¾ to 690 ¾ region.
Below that buyers should appear near 675 ¾ to 674 ½.
THE LIVELY LIVESTOCK
DEC CATTLE
Support should appear near 13100 to 13040 and 12892.
Resistance should appear near 13340 to 13460 and 13530.
FEB CATTLE
Support should appear near 13340 then 13217 and 13100 to 13040
Resistance should appear near 13460, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 13530 and the 13770 to 13830 region.
DEC HOGS
Support should appear near 8777 to 8762 and 8682 to 8662. A close under is negative and augurs for a test of 8592 to 8562. Below that buyers should appear near 8407 to 8392.
Resistance should appear near the 8857 to 8872 region. Traders can sell at 8857 and hold for lower prices. Beyond that sellers should appear near 8932 to 8967 and should cap rallies.
FEB HOGS
Support should appear near 8956 to 8932 and the 8872 to 8857 region. Below that buyers should appear near 8777 to 8762 and contain a decline.
Resistance should appear near 9042 to 9062 and the 9137 to 9157 region.
APRIL HOGS
Support should appear near 8967 to 8932 and the 8872 to 8857 region.
Resistance should appear near 9042 to 9062 and the 9137 to 9157 region.
JUNE HOGS
Support should appear near 9447 to 9427 and the 9347 to 9312 region. Below that buyers should appear near 9062 to 9042 and contain a decline.
Resistance should appear near the 9622 to 9642, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of the 9707 to 9737 region. Traders should go long if a close over 9647 occurs.
Stay tuned for Livestock flashes
THE SATISFYING SOFTS
DEC COFFEE
Support should appear near 11360 to 11300 and the 11010 to 10960 region.
Resistance should appear near 11640 to 11690. A close over is friendly and augurs for a test of the 11920 to 12030 region.
DECEMBER COCOA
Resistance should appear near 2758 to 2775. Beyond that a trade towards 2820 to 2829 is likely.
Sellers should appear near 2928 to 2937 and 2972 to 2990
Support should appear near the 2672 to 2663 and the 2620 to 2612 region. Traders can buy at 2673 and hold for higher prices… Below that buyers should appear near 2568 to 2552.
Stay tuned for Flashes
MARCH SUGAR
Resistance is near 2034 to 2042 and the 2080 to 2089 region. Beyond that a test of 2126 to 2134
is likely.
Support should appear near the 1909 to 1902 region. Below that buyers should appear near 1865 to 1858. Traders can buy at 1867 and risk a close under 1851 for three days in a row.
DEC COTTON
Support should appear near 8223 to 8194 then 8134 to 8119 and the 8044 to 8029 region. Traders can buy at 8055 for a bounce and risk a close under 7935 for three days in a row.
Resistance is at 8314 and 8391 to 8407. Beyond that sellers should appear near 8484 to 8499 and cap a rally.
Stay tuned for Flashes and Updates in all Markets
–A Ship in Harbor is Safe…But that is not what ships are built for –
Happy Trading!
Bill wil@futurescom.com
Sunday October 20, 2013 2:00 PM South Florida Beach Time
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