FuturesCom Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook # 434 November 03 2013 SP500 and Equity Indices • Bonds • Currency Trading • Forex • Precious Metals • Energy • Grains • Livestock • Coffee • Sugar • Cocoa • Cotton. Free Two Week Trial see https://futurescom.com/free-trial-2
The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty. — Winston Churchill —
Saturday November 02 2013
5:00 AM South Florida Beach Time
Stocks were mixed Friday, small caps dropped a bit, techs up mildly and blue chips up a bit also, the transports continue to exhibit strength. Traders should stay nimble and tune in for Day Trades, BW flashes and Updates for all markets. The Dow Jones Industrial trend remains on a sideways to higher path typically the Dow Jones Industrial average tends remain firm into December, traders should consider buying Dow based ETF’s or Futures on dips. Historically
(as shown in the SP500 seasonality) most of the money in the stock market is made from November until about May. Investors should consider buying a mid-month decline in stocks.
Long term ‘yearly’ technical patterns for U.S. stock index averages remain friendly. Precious metals are trying to bottom with a sloppy wild back and forth action.
This time of year platinum tends to stay steady to firm into the end of November and maybe early December. Ditto for Gold and Silver which normally holds up fairly well on declines in the later part of November and into December. However Friday’s precious metal action was negative therefore ‘traders’ should be willing to trade both sides as the metals appear to be a trading affair.
The big action was seen in Forex markets last week as the Euro declined from our 13770 to 13830 region and we expected a pause and some lower action. However the Euro decline was swifter than we expected, needless to say after selling into strength and taking profits we never got back in. Look for a trading range in Euro between 13460 to 13340 and 13615 and perhaps 13770 to 13830 again on top. Breaking either side of that range would widen the trade to 14150 on top and 13100 on the bottom. Forex traders should now use caution, expectations for Fed Tapering in December as some economists are predicting is silly. Folks have a better chance registering on the Obamacare website this weekend than getting the Fed to begin tapering in December.
U.S Payroll numbers are due to be released this Friday along with the USDA October Crop Production and WASDE report. Corn is heavily oversold, as is coffee and cotton. Soybeans and products normally bottom this time of year for harvest lows. Wheat acts ok but tends to get sloppy now.
OJ looks interesting and maybe getting get to ‘leave the area’ up for a rally into January and higher prices. Sugar has declined to our general buying region. Cocoa is up on the year and is consolidating at nearby support. We will be sending out commentary on the Grains before the crop report.
Analysis for overseas equity and foreign exchange markets is available upon request, for more information please call the office or email a request. We still like the CAC-40 longer term.
Finance ministers in Japan need to aggressively push for a weak Yen, if only to keep the Japanese stock markets from tumbling. This should not be a hard decision for Abe and those who think he will not do so should think twice. Traders should look for Dollar-Yen to level off with an upward bias. Normally this time of year Yen Futures (shown in the historical seasonal chart) tend to decline and Dollar-Yen tends to rise beginning its ascent into spring. Forex traders should remain long Dollar-Yen and buy dips. Aggressive traders can sell yen futures for a trade or consider buying puts on the ‘FXY’ ETF.
The Aussie is weak against the dollar we will look to exit longs on a rally. A trading range of 9347 to 9316 on bottom and 9707 to 9737 on top should be expected. However seasonally the Aussie can remain firm against the CHF well into November. The U.S Dollar typically holds well against the Canadian dollar into December. Forex traders can buy CAD against 10360 to 10320 if able. Futures traders can sell rallies for day trades. Stay tuned for Forex flashes.
Energies are a mess. Brent Crude acts far better than WTI. Lower Gasoline prices are a boon to the U.S consumer. However Heating Oil can quickly turn into a weather market over the next few months and test the highs again. Investors as well as traders should be looking to buy heating oil for a bounce into December and perhaps January.
Onto the Nitty Gritty
THE SENSATIONAL STOCK AND BOND MARKET
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE
Support should appear near the 15,350.00 to 15,290.00 region. Below that 15,125.00 should hold. Failure of 15,125.00 indicates a test of 14,960.00 to 14,840.00 is likely and where buyers should contain declines.
Resistance remains near the 15,690.00 to 15,760.00 region. However a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 15,925.00 and eventually the16, 090.00 to 16,150.00 region down the road.
DEC E-MINI SP500
Resistance should appear near 1756.00 and the 1774.00 to 1780 region. A close over is friendly and augurs for a test of the 1808.00 to 1822.00 region.
Nearby support should appear near 1747and the 1738.00 to 1731.00 region. Below that buyers should appear near 1696.00 to 1689.00.
Aggressive Traders should go long if a close over 1780.75 occurs.
NASDAQ COMPOSITE
Resistance should appear near 3929.00, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 3982.00 to 3992.00. Beyond that a test of the 4046.00 to 4056.00 region is likely.
Support should appear near 3909.00 then 3888.00 and the 3867.00 to 3858.00 region. Below that buyers should contain declines near 3806.00 to 3795.00.
DEC E-MINI NASDAQ 100
Support should appear near 3352.50 and the 3328.00 to 3319.00 region. Below that buyers should appear near the 3270.00 to 3261.00 region.
Resistance should appear near 3377.00 to 3386.00, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of and the 3425.00 to 3443.00 region. Traders should go long if a close over 3387.00 occurs.
DEC E-MINI RUSSELL 2000
Resistance should appear at 1096.00 to 1101.00 and 1130.00 to 1136.00.
Support should appear near 1082.50 and the 1068.00 to 1058.00 region.
Stay tuned for Index Flashes.
DEC 30 YR BOND
Resistance should appear near 134-07 and 134-21, above that a test of 135-07 and 135-21 is likely and should cap rallies.
Support should appear near 133-21 and 133-07. Below that buyers should appear near 132-21 then 132-07 and contain declines. .
DEC 10 YR NOTE
Resistance should appear near 127-07 then 127-21 and 128-07. Beyond that a test of 128-21 and
129-07 is likely and should cap a rally.
Support should appear near 126-07 and 125-21. Below that buyers should appear near 125-07 and then 124-21and should contain a declines
THE FRENZIED FOREX FRONT
DEC DOLLAR INDEX
Resistance should appear near 8119 to 8134 and the 8194 to 8823 region.
Nearby support should appear near 8044 to 8029, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 7954 to 7939. Below that buyers should appear near 7864 to 7836.
DEC JAPANESE YEN
Resistance should appear near 10185 then 10227 and the 10320 to 10360 region. Traders can Sell at 10317 and hold for lower prices.
Support should appear near 10136 to 10104, a close under is negative and augurs for at test of 10037 to 10021. Trade Accordingly
DEC EURO CURRENCY
Support should appear near 13460 to 13400 and 13340. Below that a test of 13100 to 13040 is likely.
Resistance should appear near 13615 and should cap an early rally. Traders can sell at 13617 and risk 50 points. Beyond that resistance should appear near the 13770 to 13830 region. An extended trade over is friendly and augurs for a test of 14150 to 14210.
DEC SWISS FRANC
Resistance should appear near 11010 then 11087 and 11155. Beyond that a test of 11300 to 11360 is likely to occur.
Support remains near 10960. A close under is negative and augurs for a test of 10820 and the 10680 to 10580 region, which should hold.
DEC BRITISH POUND
Support should appear near the 15760 to 15690 region.
Resistance should appear near 16090 to 16150 and should cap early rallies.
DEC CANADIAN DOLLAR
Resistance should appear near 9625 to 9641 and the 9706 to 9737 region. Traders can sell at 9705 and risk a close over 9742 for three days in a row.
Support should appear near 9542 to 9526 and the 9445 to 9428 region.
DEC AUSSIE DOLLAR
Support should appear near 9347 to 9316 and 9237.
Resistance should appear near 9429 to 9445 the 9526 to 9542 and 9625 to 9641
THE PRECIOUS METALS
DECEMBER GOLD
Resistance should appear near 1334.0 to 1346.0. A close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 1377 to 1383 and the 1453.0 to 1459.0 region.
Support is near 1310.00 to 1304.0 then 1289.00 and the 1274.0 to 1268.0 region.
DEC COPPER
Resistance should appear near 33190 to 33280. A close over is friendly and augurs for s test of 33770 to 33860. Beyond that sellers should appear near 34250 to 34430 which should cap a rally.
Support should appear near 32700 to 32610 and the 32130 to 31940 region which should contain declines.
DECEMBER SILVER
Support should appear near 2170.0 and the 2134.0 to 2126.0 region. Below that buyers should appear near 2089.0 to 2080.0 and contain a decline.
Resistance at the 2219.0 to 2226.0. A sustained rally over is friendly and augurs for a test of 2267.0 to 2274.0. Beyond that sellers should appear near the 2354.0 to 2370.0 region.
THE EXCITING ENERGIES
JANUARY CRUDE OIL
Resistance should appear near 9706 to 9737. Beyond that sellers should appear near 9821 to 9837.
Support should appear near 9445 to 9429. Below that a test of 9347 to 9316 is likely.
JANUARY HEATING OIL
Support should appear near should appear near 28830 to 28740 and the 28290 to 28200 region. Traders with Ice Water running thru their veins can buy at 28310 and risk a close under 28190 for three days in a row.
Resistance should appear 29280 to 29270 and the 29720 to 29900 region. A close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 30920 to 31020.
JANUARY UNLEADED GAS
Support should appear near the 25190 to 25110 region and the 24690 to 24610 region.
Resistance should appear near 25620 to 25680 and the 26120 to 26200 region. Beyond that a test of
26630 to 26720 is likely.
JANUARY NATURAL GAS
Resistance should appear at 3613 to 3623 and the 3663 to 3682 region where sellers should appear near and cap a rally for now. A close over is friendly and augurs for higher prices towards 38580 to 38650.
Support should appear near 3563 to 3553 and the 3503 to 3493 region. Below that buyers should appear near 34430 to 34250 and contain declines.
THE GRANDE’ GRAINS
JAN SOYBEANS
Support should appear near 1238.00 to 1232.00 below that buyers should appear near 1203 to 1192.
Resistance should appear near 1268 to 1274, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 1304 to 1310. Beyond that sellers should appear near 1322 and the 1334 to 1346 region.
DEC SOYOIL
Resistance should appear near 4238 to 4249 and the 4370 to 4381 region.
Support should appear near 4120 to 4110 and the 4056 to 4046 region, which should contain declines.
DEC SOYMEAL
Resistance should appear near 404.6 to 405.6 and 416.3 to 418.3.
Support should appear near 392.9 to 390.9 and the 386.7 to 385.8 region.
DEC CORN
Support should appear near and 418 ¼ to 416 ¼ and 399 ¼ to 398 ¼
Resistance should appear near 442 ¼ to 448 ½ and 463 ¾ to 465.
DEC WHEAT
Resistance should appear near 680 ¾ to 683 ¾ and 707 ½ to 708 ¾
Support should appear near 659 ¼ to 657 ¾ and 635 to 633 ¾
THE LIVELY LIVESTOCK
DEC CATTLE
Support should appear near 13100 to 13040 and 12892.
Resistance should appear near 13340 to 13460 and 13530.
FEB CATTLE
Support should appear near 13340 then 13217 and 13100 to 13040
Resistance should appear near 13460, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 13530 and the 13770 to 13830 region.
DEC HOGS
Support should appear near 8777 to 8762 and 8682 to 8662.
Resistance should appear near 8932 to 8967 and 9037 to 9062, which should cap an early rally
FEB HOGS
Support should appear near 8957 to 8932 and the 8872 to 8857 region.
Resistance should appear near 9137 to 9157 and 9317 to 9347
APRIL HOGS
Support should appear near 9157 to 9142 and 8967 to 8932.
Resistance should appear near 9317 to 9347 and the 9427 to 9447 region.
JUNE HOGS
Support should appear near 9837 to 9822 and 9737 to 9707 where buyers should appear and contain a decline.
Resistance should appear near 9922 to 9937 and 10022 to 10037, a close over is friendly and augurs for a test of the 10317 to 10357 region. Stay tuned for Livestock flashes
THE SATISFYING SOFTS
DEC COFFEE
Support should appear near 10360 to 10320
Resistance should appear near 11300 to 11360.
DECEMBER COCOA
Resistance should appear near 2758 to 2775. Beyond that a trade towards 2820 to 2829 is likely.
Sellers should appear near 2928 to 2937 and 2972 to 2990
Support should appear near the 2620 to 2612 region. Below that buyers should appear near 2568 to 2552. Stay tuned for Flashes
MARCH SUGAR
Resistance is near 1858 to 1865 and 1902 to 1909. Beyond that a test of 1946 to 1953 is likely.
Support should appear near the 1822 to 1808 and the 1780 to 1774 region. Traders can buy at 1823 and risk a close under 1771 for three days in a row.
DEC COTTON
Support should appear near 7342 to 7328 and 7003 to 6990
Resistance is at 7836 to 7864 and 8029 to 8044
Stay tuned for Flashes and Updates in all Markets
–A Ship in Harbor is Safe…But that is not what ships are built for –
Happy Trading!
Bill wil@futurescom.com
Sunday November 03, 2013 1:35 PM South Florida Beach Time
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