Futures Trading Newsletter , Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook #492.
FuturesCom Futures Trading Newsletter Sunday January 31, 2016. SP500 and Equity Indices • Bonds • Currency Trading • Forex • Precious Metals • Energy • Grains • Livestock • Coffee • Sugar • Cocoa • Cotton. for a Free Two Week trial to our Futures Trading Newsletter see https://futurescom.com/free-trial-2
“Accomplishments will prove to a be a journey, not a destination.” – Dwight d Eisenhower –
Saturday January 30th 2016
3:00 AM, South Florida Beach Time
The Equity market yearly work is neutral. Some equity averages have a couple years of price on top. The quarterly work is rolling over and monthly work remains negative. Watch out for Geo-political risks, volatility is likely to remain high. Stay tuned for flashes, updates and recommendations for all markets.
Contact our office if you need analysis for global equities, foreign exchange markets or commodities not covered today.
Forex Markets; the euro is slightly lower on the year, long term downside targets remain well below the current trading ranges and levels. We remain lightly short. Cable downside support is now 13830 to 13750. Resistance above the market remains at 14530 to 14590 and 14849 to 14960. Traders should consider selling if a close under 14147 occurs.
The USD/CAD is a little higher on the year and has pulled back, Canadian Dollar Futures targets are lower, conversely longer term USD/CAD targets remain higher.
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) changed its monetary policy to negative rates. Dollar-Yen moved up though 11920 to 12030 and suggests a move to 12320 to 12380 and longer term toward the 13340 to 13460 region. Buy dips (sell rallies in yen futures). The Nikkei 225 average monthly work remains iffy and continues to roll over to the downside. The Dollar-Yen is higher year over year. Watch out for volatility. The Aussie and Kiwi long term downside targets remain lower and are trading affairs.
Precious Metals and Energy markets; Generally, both still have room on the downside and upside and the long term trends remain down. Gold and Silver are higher on the year. Copper is still a mess.
WTI Crude Oil, Brent Crude and have created a wide range after accelerating to the downside and along with Natural Gas have years of price on top of the market and remain trading affairs.
Grains; World soybean production and supplies remain near record levels. Soybeans and Soymeal are trading either side year end levels and remain trading affairs. Soybean Oil is also trading around unchanged on the year and tends to firm or at least stay stable from now until March and April.
Buy dips in Soybean Oil. Wheat typically drifts lower into July. Wheat is nearly unchanged on the month and year. Sell Rallies. Corn is higher on the month and year. Acreage estimates are coming in a little higher than last year.
Livestock; Cattle futures are a little lower on the year and year over year. Sell cattle on rallies. Traders should stay tuned for day to day Lean Hogs trades. We are long June and Short April. Consider livestock markets a trading affair, and stay tuned for livestock flashes and updates.
Soft Commodities; Coffee is lower on the year. Estimates of Coffee’s global supply/demand balance for 2016 and are still wide. Nothing has changed. Sugar fell apart is now lower on the year and year over year and has a lot of room to the downside and can become a trading affair on both sides of the market. Stay tuned for flashes.
Cotton is lower on the year and a hair little above where prices were a year ago at the end of January 2015. Cotton is a trading affair. The long term Cocoa charts are rolling over. Sell rallies and try to get short.
On to the Nitty Gritty. Stay tuned for Flashes and Updates in all Markets
THE SENSATIONAL STOCK AND BOND MARKET
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE Support is at the 16,150.00 to 16,090.00 region. A close under or extended trade w augurs for a test of the 15,760.00 to 15,690.00 region. Below that buyers should appear near 15,350.00 to 15,290.00.
Resistance should appear near 16,720.00 and the 16,890.00 to 16,960.00 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 17,310.00 to 17,380.00 and cap a rally.
DOW JONES TRANSPORTS
Support should appear near 6836.00 6809.00 and the 6755.00 to 6743.00 region. Below that buyers should appear near the 6350.00 to 6337.00 region and contain a decline.
Resistance should appear near 6990.00 to 7003.00 and the 7143.00 to 7170.00 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 7328.00 to 7342.00 and cap a good rally.
MARCH E-MINI SP500
Resistance should appear the 1946.00 to 1953.00 region. Traders can sell at 1945.75 and risk a close over 1957.75 for three days in a row. Beyond that a test of 1982.00 to 1996.00 is likely and should cap a rally.
Support should appear near 1909.00 to 1902.00, a close under augurs for a test of 1865.00 to 1858.00 and the 1822.00 to 1808.00 region. Below that a test of 1780.00 to 1774.00 is likely.
NASDAQ COMPOSITE
Resistance should appear at 4639.00 to 4650.00 and the 4695.00 to 4717.00 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 4775.00 to 4785.00 and the 4845.00 to 4856.00 region and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 4582.00 to 4571.00 and 4446.00 to 4425.00 region. Below that a test of the 4259.00 to 4238.00 region is likely and should contain a decline.
MARCH E-MINI NASDAQ 100
Support should appear near 4249.00 to 4238.00 and 4110.00 to 4120.00 region. Below that a test of the 3929.00 to 3909.00 region is likely. Traders should go short if a close under 4107.00 occurs.
Resistance is at the 4304.00 to 4314.00 and the 4370.00 4381.00 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 4425.00 to 4446.00. Traders can sell at 4421.00 and risk a close over 4447.00 for three days in row.
MARCH E-MINI RUSSELL 2000
Resistance should appear near the 1058.00 to 1068.00 region. Traders can sell at 1057.90 and hold for lower prices. risk a close over 1069.20 for three days in a row. Support should appear near 1013.60 to 1010.40 and the 1003.70 to 1002.10 region. An extended trade or close under is negative and augurs for a test of the 973.70 to 970.60 region. Trade accordingly.
MARCH 30 YR BONDS
Resistance should appear near 162-21 and 164-07. Beyond that sellers should appear 165-21 and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 160-07 and 159-17. Under that buyers should appear near 157-21 and contain a decline.
MARCH 10 YR NOTES
Resistance should appear near 130-08 and 130-21 and should contain a rally. Beyond that sellers should appear near 131-07.
Support should appear near 128-17 and 127-21. Below that 125-21 should hold.
THE FRENZIED FOREX FRONT
MARCH DOLLAR INDEX
Resistance should appear near 10021 to 10037 and the 10104 to 10136 region. Beyond that a test of 10320 to 10360 is likely. Support should appear near 9937 to 9921 and the 9837 to 9821 region. Below that buyers should appear near 9737 to 9706.
MARCH JAPANESE YEN
Resistance should appear near 8300 to 8314 and 8391 to 8406. Traders can sell at 8351 and hold for lower prices. Support should appear near 8223 to 8194 and the 8044 to 8029 region. Below that a test of 7954 to 7929 is likely. Traders should go short if a close under 8191 occurs.
MARCH EURO CURRENCY
Support should appear near 10820. A close under is negative and augurs for a test of 10680 to 10580. Resistance should appear near 10960 to 11010 and 11155. Beyond that sellers should appear near the 11300 to 11360 region
MARCH SWISS FRANC
Resistance should appear near 9821 to 9837 and the 9921 to 9937 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 10021 to 10037 and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 9737 to 9706, below that an eventual test of 9347 to 9316 is likely.
MARCH BRITISH POUND
Support should appear near 14150. Below that a test of 13830 to 13770 is likely Resistance should appear near 14370 and the 14530 to 14590 region, where sellers should appear and cap a rally. Traders can sell at 14527 and risk a close over 14597 for three days in a row.
MARCH CANADIAN DOLLAR
Resistance should appear near 7242 to 7255 and the 7328 to 7342 region. Traders can sell at 7327 and risk a close over 7347 for three days in a row.
Support should appear near 7088 to7074 and 7003 to 6990 region.
Traders should go short if a close under 7071 occurs
MARCH AUSSIE DOLLAR
Resistance should appear near 7074 to 7088 and the 7143 to 7170 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 7255 to 7242.
Support should appear near 7003 to 6990. Below that a test of 6919 to 6906 is likely. Traders should go short if a close under 7037 occurs.
THE PRECIOUS METALS
APRIL GOLD
Resistance should appear near 1130.00 1136.00 region. A close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 1164.0 to 1169.0. Beyond that sellers should appear near 1192.0 to 1203.0 and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 1101.0 to 1096.0. Below that a trade towards the 1068.00 to 1058.0 region is likely.
MARCH COPPER
Resistance should appear near 20800 to 20890 and the 21260 to 21340 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 21700 to 21850 region.
Support should appear near 20420 to 20340 region. Below that a trade towards 19530 to 19460 is likely.
MARCH SILVER
Support should appear near 1421.0 to 1415.0. A close under is negative and augurs for a test of 1346.0 to 1334.0 region. Below that buyers should appear near 1310.0 to 1304.0 and contain a decline for a bit.
Resistance is at 1437.0, a close over is friendly and augurs for test of 1453.0 to 1459.0 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near the 1484.0 to 1496.0 region.
THE EXCITING ENERGIES
MARCH CRUDE OIL
Support should appear near 3270 to 3261. A close under is negative and augurs for a test of 3101 to 3092.
Resistance should appear near the 3553 to 3563 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 3613 to 3623.
APRIL CRUDE OIL
Support should appear near 3443 to 3425 and the 3386 to 3377 region. Below that a test of 3328 to 3319 is likely.
Resistance should appear near 3663 to 3682 and the 3734 to 3743 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near the 3929 to 3909 region. Traders can sell at 3902 and risk a close over 3997 for three days in a row.
Traders should go short if a close under 3491 occurs.
APRIL BRENT CRUDE OIL
Support should appear near 3563 to 3553 and the 3328 to 3319 region. Below that a test of 3270 to 3261 is likely.
Resistance should appear near 3734 to 3753 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 3858 to 3867.
MARCH HEATING OIL
Support should appear near 10580 and the 10360 to 10320 region. Below that a test of 10136 to 10104 is likely.
Resistance should appear 10960 to 11010 and the 11300 to 11360 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 11640 to 11690 and cap a rally.
MARCH UNLEADED GAS
Support should appear near 11010 to 10960. Below that buyers should appear near 10680 to 10580 and contain a decline.
Resistance should appear 116040 to 11690 and the 11920 to 12030 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 12680 to 12740 and cap a rally
APRIL NATURAL GAS
Support should appear near 2275 to 2267, failure there is negative and augurs for a test of the 2134 to 2.126 region. Below that buyers should appear near the 1.953 to 1.946 region.
Resistance should appear near 2.354 to 2.370. An extended trade over augurs for a test of the 2.411 to 2.419 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 2.511 to 2.519 and cap a rally.
THE GRANDE’ GRAINS
MARCH SOYBEANS
Support should appear near 868 ¼ to 866 ¾, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of the 858 ¾ to 856 region. Below that a test of 849 ¾ to 848 ½ and the 831 1/4 to 830 region is likely.
Resistance should appear near the 885 ¾ to 887 ¼ region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 893 ½ to 896 ½ and the 904 ½ to 906 region. Traders can sell at 903 ¾ and stay tuned for flashes. Traders should go short if a close under 866 ¼ occurs.
MAY SOYOIL Support should appear near 3102 to 3092 and 3045 to 3036. Below that buyers should appear near 2990 to 2972. Traders can buy at 2997 for a bounce. Under that 2937 to 2928 should hold.
Resistance should appear near the 3092 to 3102 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 3148 to 3157 and 3194 to 3213. A close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 3261 to 3270.
MARCH SOYMEAL
Resistance should appear near the 275.8 to 277.4 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 282.0 to 282.9 and 287.4 to 288.3.
Support should appear near 267.2 to 266.3 A close under is negative and augurs for a test of 251.9 to 251.1. Aggressive traders should go short if a close under 266.1 occurs.
MARCH CORN
Support should appear near 368 ¼ to 366 ¼ and the 362 ¼ to 361 ¼ region. A close under is negative and augurs for a test of 338 ¾ to 337 ¾ where buyers should appear and contain a decline. Resistance should appear near 373 ½ to 374 ¼ and the 379 ½ to 380 ¾ region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 385 ¾ to 386 ¾ and cap a rally.
MARCH WHEAT
Support should appear near 471 ¾ to 469 ½, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 465 to 463 ¾ region. Below that buyers should appear near 458 ¼ to 457 ¼ and the 444 ¾ to 442 ½ region.
Resistance should appear near the 485 ½ to 484 ¾ region. Beyond that sellers should appear near
491 ½ to 492 ¾ and the 497 ¼ to 499 ¾ region and cap a rally. Traders can sell at 491 ¼ and hold for lower prices.
THE LIVELY LIVESTOCK
APRIL CATTLE
Support should appear near 13100 to 13040 and the 12740 to 12680 region. An extended trade under augurs for a test of 12380 to 12320.
Resistance should appear near 13460 and the 13770 to 13830 region.
Traders should go short if a close under 13337 occurs.
JUNE CATTLE
Support should appear near the 12320 region. Under that a trade towards 12030 to 11920 is likely.
Resistance should appear near 12527 and the 12680 to 12740 region. Traders can sell at 12672 and hold for lower prices.
APRIL HOGS
Resistance should appear near 7142 to 7170 and 7242 to 7257
Support should appear near the 7007 to 6987 and the 6857 to 6742 region. Stay tuned for Livestock flashes and updates.
THE SATISFYING SOFTS
MARCH COFFEE
Resistance should appear near 11820 and the 11920 to 12030 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 12302 to 12380 and cap a rally. Support should appear near 11500 and 11360 to 11300, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 11010 to 10960 and the 10680 to 10580 region.
MAY COCOA
Support should appear near 2724 to 2716, a close under augurs for a test of 2620 to 2612. Resistance should appear near 2820 to 2829 and the 2928 to 2937 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 2972 to 2990 and cap a rally. Traders can sell at 2971 and hold for lower prices.
MAY SUGAR
Resistance is near the 1334 to 1343 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 1377 to 1383 and 1415 to 1421. Support should appear near 1274 to 1268 and the 1232 to 1238 region.
MARCH COTTON Support should appear near 6035 to 6023, below that a trade towards 5880 to 5855 is likely. Resistance remains near 6165 to 6190 and the 6337 to 6350 region.
Stay tuned for Flashes and Updates in all Markets
–A Ship in Harbor is Safe…But that is not what ships are built for –
Happy Trading!
Bill wil@futurescom.com
Sunday January 31, 2016 9:00 AM South Florida Beach Time
THIS PUBLICATION IS SUBJECT TO REVISIONS AND CONTAINS THE VIEW AND OPINIONS OF THE AUTHOR, EXCEPT WHERE OPINIONS ARE ATTRIBUTED TO OTHER SOURCES. WRITTEN PERMISSION IS REQUIRED PRIOR TO ANY DISTRIBUTION OR REPRODUCTION. FUTURES AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING IS RISKY AND CAN CAUSE SUBSTANTIAL FINANCIAL LOSS. THE USE OF OPTIONS AND OPTION TRADING INVOLVES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK. THE USE OF STOPS MAY NOT LIMIT LOSSES TO INTENDED AMOUNTS. SPREAD POSITIONS MAY NOT BE LESS RISKY THAN OUTRIGHT FUTURES POSITIONS, FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND OPTIONS. TRADING FUTURES AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE ON MARGIN CARRIES A HIGH LEVEL OF RISK AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. PLEASE TRADE WITH CAPITAL YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. NO SOLICITATION IS MADE HERE FOR INDIVIDUALS TO BUY OR SELL FUTURES CONTRACTS, FOREIGN EXCHANGE OR OPTION MARKET. SOURCES ARE BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE BUT NO ASSURANCE IS MADE FOR ACCURACY. READERS ARE SOLEY RESPONSIBLE FOR HOW THEY USE THE INFORMATION AND FOR THEIR RESULTS. YOU SHOULD BE AWARE OF ALL THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH FUTURES AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND SEEK ADVICE FROM AN INDEPENDENT FINANCIAL ADVISOR IF YOU HAVE ANY DOUBTS, THE HIGH DEGREE OF LEVERAGE THAT IS OFTEN OBTAINABLE IN FUTURES AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING CAN WORK AGAINST YOU AS WELL AS FOR YOU. THE USE OF LEVERAGE CAN LEAD TO LARGE LOSSES AS WELL AS GAINS. INTERNET RISKS ; THERE ARE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH UTILIZING AN INTERNET BASED SERVICE INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, FAILURE OF HARDWARE, SOFTWARE AND INTERNET CONNECTION, FUTURESCOM EMPLOYS BACK-UP SYSTEMS AND CONTINGENCY PLANS TO MINIMIZE THE POSSIBILITY OF SYSTEM FAILURE.
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