Futures Trading Newsletter , Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook #493.
FuturesCom Futures Trading Newsletter Sunday February 14, 2016. SP500 and Equity Indices • Bonds • Currency Trading • Forex • Precious Metals • Energy • Grains • Livestock • Coffee • Sugar • Cocoa • Cotton. for a Free Two Week trial to our Futures Trading Newsletter see https://futurescom.com/free-trial-2
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many men as possible. — Bernard Baruch.
Saturday February 13th 2016
7:00 AM, South Florida Beach Time
U.S. Equities yearly work remains neutral. The quarterly work is rolling over and monthly work remains negative. U.S. Treasury futures made new contract highs last week and pulled back on
Friday. Geo-political risks and volatility is likely to remain high. Contact our office if you need analysis for global equities, foreign exchange markets or commodities not covered today. During February 26th to February 27th the G-20 will hold a meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors in Shanghai.
Forex Markets; The U.S. dollar index is lower on the year and unchanged to a little higher against January 2015. The euro is slightly higher on the year and unchanged from January 2015, so far the 11300 to 11360 region has been rejected. Support is now 11010 to 10960. Pick your poison. Cable downside targets remain near 13830 to 13750. Resistance above the market remains at 14590 and 14849 to 14960. Traders should consider selling rallies. The USD/CAD volitity is high and has become a trading affair, the long term trend remains up. Conversely the Canadian Dollar futures long term trend is down. The Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) switch to negative rates has not worked well. To put it bluntly the Nikkei 225 is a blithering mess, the long term work has rolled over. The Dollar-Yen is lower on the year and year over year. Watch out for volatility. The Aussie and Kiwi long term downside targets remain lower and are trading affairs.
Precious Metals; Gold and Silver are higher on the year, both rallied nicely over the last few weeks. We did not buy gold nor silver during the donnybrook we witnessed over the last two weeks. We have been short stock indices in one manner or another, maintaining both short stock indices and long precious metals provided undue risk. Copper is still a mess, nothing has changed.
Energies; Crude Oil has created a wide trading range after accelerating to the downside once again and along with Natural Gas have years of price on top of the market. The last ‘declaration’ by OPEC countries to hold talks produced a good rally a few months back and then was most likely sold into by the very sovereigns who wanted to cut production. Crude Oil and the products are trading affairs. April Natural Gas made new contract lows on Friday and closed a little above lows. Nothing has changed.
Grains; March Soymeal traded at new contract lows on Thursday. Soybean Oil is trading firm and can remain that way into March and April. Aggressive traders can buy dips with tight stops. Soybeans are trading either side year end levels. Soybeans typically firm up at this time of year, however soybeans remain a trading affair. Soybean supplies are still at record highs. Wheat typically drifts lower into July. Wheat should be sold on a good rally. Corn is essentially unchanged on the year and is trading affair based on which the wind blows for planting intentions, weather and exports.
Livestock; Cattle futures are lower on the year and year over year. Sell cattle on rallies. Traders should stay tuned for day to day Lean Hogs trades. We are long June and Short April. Consider livestock markets a trading affair, and stay tuned for livestock flashes and updates.
Soft Commodities; Coffee is lower on the year and unchanged on the month. Nothing has changed. Sugar remains is unchanged on the month and is lower on the year and year over year.
Stay tuned for flashes.
Cotton is lower on the year and on the month. May Cotton traded at new contract lows Thursday and any rally should be sold and a hair little above where prices were a year ago at the end of January 2015. The long term Cocoa charts have rolled over. Sell rallies and try to get short, probably for the next 16 to 24 months. On to the Nitty Gritty.
Stay tuned for Flashes and Updates in all Markets
THE SENSATIONAL STOCK AND BOND MARKET
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE
Support is at the 15,760.00 to 15,690.00 region. Below that buyers should appear near 15,350.00 to 15,290.00. Under that support near 14,960.00 to 14,840.00
Resistance should appear near 16,090.00 to 16,150.00 and 16,420.00 to 16,550.00. Beyond that sellers should appear near 16,890.00 to 16,960.00 and cap a rally.
DOW JONES TRANSPORTS
Support should appear near 7003.00 to 6990.00 and 6836.00 6809.00. Below that buyers should appear near the 6673.00 to 6659.00 region.
Resistance should appear near the 7143.00 to 7170.00 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 7328.00 to 7342.00 and cap a good rally.
MARCH E-MINI SP500
Resistance should appear the 1902.00 to 1909.00 and the 1946.00 to 1953.00 region. Traders can sell June SP500 at 1945.75 and risk a close over 1957.75 for three days in a row.
Support should appear near the 1822.00 to 1808.00 region. Below that a test of 1780.00 to 1774.00 is likely.
NASDAQ COMPOSITE
Resistance should appear at 4370.00 to 4381.00 and 4425.00 to 4446.00. Beyond that sellers should appear near 4503.00 to 4514.00 and the 4571.00 to 4582.00 region and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 4259.00 to 4238.00 and the 4183.00 to 4163.00 region. Below that a test of 4120.00 to 4110.00 is likely.
MARCH E-MINI NASDAQ 100
Support should appear near 3929.00 to 3909.00 and the 3867.00 to 3857.00 region. Below that a test of 3806.00 to 3795.00 is likely.
Resistance is at 4046.00 to 4056.00 and 4110.00 to 4120.00. Beyond that sellers should appear near the 4238.00 to 4249.00 region. Traders can sell June at 4231.00 and risk a close over 4252.00 for three days in row. Stay tuned for flashes
MARCH E-MINI RUSSELL 2000
Nearby Resistance should appear near the 970.60 to 973.70 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 982.10 to 983.70 and the 992.10 to 993.70 region.
Support should appear near 964.10 to 962.50 and the 954.20 to 952.60 region. An extended trade or close under is negative and augurs for a test of the 934.70 to 931.60 region. Trade accordingly.
MARCH 30 YR BONDS
Resistance should appear near 168-21 then 169-07 and 173-07 to 173-21. Beyond that sellers should appear 177-07 and 178-10 and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 165-21 and 164-07. Under that buyers should appear near 161-21 and contain a decline.
MARCH 10 YR NOTES
Resistance should appear near 130-21 and 131-07. Beyond that sellers should appear near 133-21 to 134-07 and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 130-07 and 129-21. Below that 128-21 should hold.
THE FRENZIED FOREX FRONT
MARCH DOLLAR INDEX
Resistance should appear near the 9626 to 9641 region. A close over augurs for a test of the 9706 to 9737 region. Support should appear near 9542 to 9526 and the 9445 to 9429 region. Under that a test of 9347 to 9316 is likely.
MARCH JAPANESE YEN
Resistance should appear near 9029 to 9044 and 9140 to 9156. Support should appear near 8683 to 8668 and the 8589 to 8560 region.
MARCH EURO CURRENCY
Support should appear near 11010 to 10960 and 10890. Resistance should appear near 11300 to 11360 and 11640 to 11690.
MARCH SWISS FRANC
Resistance should appear near 10320 to 10360. Beyond that sellers should appear near 10580 to 10680 and cap a rally.
Support should appear near 10136 to 10104 and 10037 to 10021.
MARCH BRITISH POUND
Support should appear near 14370 and the 14210 to 14150 region. Resistance should appear near the 14530 to 14590 region and cap a rally. Traders can sell at 14557 and initially risk a close over 14597 for three days in a row. Beyond that a test of 14717 and 14840 to 14960 is likely.
MARCH CANADIAN DOLLAR
Resistance should appear near 7242 to 7255 and the 7328 to 7342 region. Traders can sell at 7277 and risk a close over 7347 for three days in a row.
Support should appear near 7170 to 7143 and the 7088 to7074 region.
MARCH AUSSIE DOLLAR
Resistance should appear near the 7143 to 7170 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 7255 to 7242 and 7328 7342.
Support should appear near 7088 to 7074 and the 7003 to 6990 region.
THE PRECIOUS METALS
APRIL GOLD
Resistance should appear near 1268.0 to 1274.0 and the 1304.0 to 1310.0 region. A close over is friendly and augurs for a test of 1334.0 to 1346.0.
Support should appear near 1232.00 and 1203.00 to 1192.00. Below that buyers should appear near 1169.0 to 1164.0.
MAY COPPER
Resistance should appear near 20800 to 20890 and the 21260 to 21340 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 21700 to 21850 region.
Support should appear near 19960 to 19820 and 19530 to 19460. Below that a trade towards 19090 to 19020 is likely.
MAY SILVER
Support should appear near 1576.0 to 1569.0. Below that buyers should appear near 1535.0 to 1529.0. A close under is negative and augurs for a test of 1496.0 to 1484.0.
Resistance is at 1609.0 to 1615.0 and the 1642.0 to 1655.0 region.
THE EXCITING ENERGIES
APRIL CRUDE OIL
Support should appear near 3101 to 3092 and the 3045 to 3036 region. A close under augurs for a test of 2937 to 2928.
Resistance should appear near 3271 to 3270 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 3377 to 3386. Stay tuned for flashes.
Traders should go short if a close under 3091 occurs.
MAY CRUDE OIL
Support should appear near 3328 to 3319 and the 3123 to 3194 region. Below that a test of 3045 to 3036 is likely.
Resistance should appear near 3425 to 3445 and the 3553 to 3563 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near the 3613 to 3623 region. Traders can sell at 3612 and risk a close over 3637 for three days in a row. Traders should go short if a close under 3191 occurs.
APRIL BRENT CRUDE OIL
Support should appear near 3213 to 3194 and the 3157 to 3148 region. Below that a test of 3045
to 3036 is likely
Resistance should appear near 3425 to 3443 and the 3553 to 3563 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 3663 to 3682.
MARCH HEATING OIL
Support should appear near the 10360 to 10320 region. Below that a test of 10136 to 10104 is likely.
Resistance should appear 10960 to 11010. Beyond that sellers should appear near 11640 to 11690 and cap a rally.
MARCH UNLEADED GAS
Support should appear near the 10136 to 10104 and 10037 to 10021. Below that a trade towards
9737 to 9706 is likely.
Resistance should appear 10580 to 10680 and 10960 to 11010. Beyond that sellers should appear near 11300 to 11360 and cap a rally.
APRIL NATURAL GAS
Support should appear near 1.953 to 1.946. Below that a test of 1.865 to 1.858 region.
Resistance should appear near 2080 to 2089 and the 2.126 to 2.134 region.
THE GRANDE’ GRAINS
MAY SOYBEANS
Support should appear near 868 ¼ to 866 ¾, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of the 858 ¾ to 856 region. Below that a test of 849 ¾ to 848 ½ and the 831 1/4 to 830 region is likely. Traders can buy at 832 and risk a close under 819 ¼ for three days in a row
Resistance should appear near the 885 ¾ to 887 ¼ region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 893 ½ to 896 ½ and the 904 ½ to 906. Stay tuned flashes.
MAY SOYOIL
Support should appear near 3102 to 3092 and 3045 to 3036. Below that buyers should appear near 2990 to 2972.
Resistance should appear near 3261 to 3270 and the 3319 to 3328 region.
MAY SOYMEAL
Resistance should appear near 266.3 to 267.2 and the 275.8 to 277.4 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 282.0 to 282.9.
Support should appear near 262.0 to 261.2 and 251.9 to 251.1.
MAY CORN
Support should appear near 362 ¼ to 361 ¼ region. A close under is negative and augurs for a test of 338 ¾ to 337 ¾ where buyers should appear and contain a decline. Resistance should appear near 373 ½ to 374 ¼ and the 379 ½ to 380 ¾ region.
MAY WHEAT
Support should appear near 458 ¼ to 457 ¼ and the 444 ¾ to 442 ½ region.
Resistance should appear near 469 ½ to 471 ¾ and 477 ¾ to 478 ½ region. Traders can sell at 477 ¾ and hold for lower prices. Beyond that sellers should appear near 484 ½
THE LIVELY LIVESTOCK
APRIL CATTLE
Support should appear near the 12740 to 12680 region. An extended trade under augurs for a test of 12380 to 12320.
Resistance should appear near 13040 to 13100 and 13340 to 13460 region
JUNE CATTLE
Support should appear 11690 to 11640 and the 11360 to 11320 region.
Resistance should appear near 12030 then 12175 and the 12320 to 12380 region.
Traders should go short if a close under 11905 occurs.
APRIL HOGS
Resistance should appear near 7142 to 7170 and 7242 to 7257
Support should appear near the 7007 to 6987 and the 6857 to 6742 region.
Stay tuned for Livestock flashes and updates.
JUNE HOGS
Resistance should appear near 8117 to 8137 and the 8192 to 8222 region
Support should appear near 7867 to 7832 and the 7777 to 7762 region.
Stay tuned for Livestock flashes and updates
THE SATISFYING SOFTS
MAY COFFEE
Resistance should appear near 11820 and the 11920 to 12030 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 12320 to 12380 and cap a rally. Traders can sell at 12300 and hold for lower prices. Support should appear near 11690 to 11640 and the 11360 to 11300 region, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 11010 to 10960 and the 10680 to 10580 region. Trade accordingly
MAY COCOA
Support should appear near 2829 to 2820 and 2724 to 2716. Resistance should appear near 2928 to 2937 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 2972 to 2990 and cap a rally. Traders can sell at 2971 and hold for lower prices.
MAY SUGAR
Resistance is near the 1334 to 1343 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 1377 to 1383 and 1415 to 1421. Traders can sell at 1372 and hold for lower prices. Support should appear near 1274 to 1268 and the 1232 to 1238 region.
MAY COTTON
Support should appear near 5577 to 5553, below that a trade towards 5430 to 5418 is likely. Resistance should appear near 5945 to 5957 and the 6023 to 6035 region.
Stay tuned for Flashes and Updates in all Markets
–A Ship in Harbor is Safe…But that is not what ships are built for –
Happy Trading!
Bill wil@futurescom.com
Sunday February 14, 2016 8:00 AM South Florida Beach Time
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