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FuturesCom
Bi-Weekly Investment Outlook # 369
Sunday May 08, 2011 

Equity Indices • Treasuries • Forex • Precious Metals • Energy • Grains • Livestock • Softs

 

“A lot of people approach risk as if it’s the enemy, when it’s really fortunes accomplice.”

Saturday May 7, 2011
7:00 AM South Florida Beach Time


 Last week the Euro, Europe’s fiat currency joined the exodus of recent high flying, high leveraged asset themes and investments last week. European Central Bank President Jean- Claude Trichet signaled on May 5 he may not raise interest rates next month and concern grew that Greece’s debt crisis is worsening.
Euro’s decline was especially brutal in the back drop of the multi market sell-off of Crude Oil, Silver, and Copper et al. Copper is now lower on the year and should approach the October 2010 region... Sell a rally.  

Needless to say, many mkts have extreme technical damage now.  Thus Euro may have farther to go. 
Euro support lies near the April lows of 14210 to 14150.  If investors decide at Euro 1.4150 to leave the room with the same reckless abandon as they did with Silver and Crude, a decline toward the March Low near 13830 to 13770 is possible.  

The ECB kept its key interest rate unchanged at 1.25 percent on May 5.  Trichet did not use “strong vigilance” wording, which typically signals more hikes.  He instead said inflation risks will be watched “very closely.”
On the same day the Bank of England kept its rate at a record low 0.5 percent. U.K Economic recovery is losing momentum and will keep the Bank of England focused on stimulating growth for some time to come.  Sell Cable on a small rally.      Eurozone country default the risks that have never really gone away are resurfacing.  Last month a German Deputy Foreign Minister Werner Hoyer said a Greek restructuring “would not be a disaster… Sell Euro on a rally

    Wealthier European nations will likely be asked once again to provide more aid to Greece. Greece was the first country to receive a euro-area bailout. Investment and Forex markets will probably have to wade through another round of bailouts.  Investors will be pelted once again by more meetings; more babble from a plethora of finance ministers and politicians as more countries request more time and different deals. This is going to go on for a long time. Spain unemployment by some measures is above 20%.  Many peripheral European nations are struggling with shrinking economies and elevated unemployment while trying to reduce debt that may have to be restructured.

  Stay tuned for Updates and Reports for All Markets
                 

                      The Sensational Stock and Bond Markets
Dow Jones Industrial Average
 Support should appear near 12,380.00 to 12,320.00
Resistance should appear near the 12680.00 to 12,740.00 region

jUNE e-Mini sp500
 Resistance should appear near the 1361.50 and the 1377.00 to 1383.00 region.
Traders can sell at 1376.75 and risk a close over 1384.25 for three days in a row.  
Support should appear at near 1334.00 then 1322 and 1310.00 to 1304.00. Traders can buy at 1310.75 for a bounce and risk a close under 1302.25 for three days in a row.
Aggressive Traders can go long if a close over 1362.00 occurs

NAsdaq Composite
Resistance should appear near 2829 and 2874.00 to 2883.00     
Support should appear near 2775.00 to 2758.00 and 2724 to 2716  

jUNE E-Mini NasdaQ 100
 Resistance should appear near 2411.00 to 2419.00. A close over is friendly and augurs for a trade towards 2461.00 to 2469.00.  
Support should appear near  2370.00 to 2354.00 , a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 2322.00 to 2315.00. Traders can buy at 2323 for a bounce and risk a close under 2312 for three days in a row. Aggressive Traders can go long if a close over 2421.50 occurs.

JUNE  E-Mini RUSSELL 2000
 Resistance should appear near 839.10 to 840.60 and 856.90 to 858.90.
Support should appear near the 822.30 to 819. 40. A close under is negative and augurs for a test of 804.40 to 802.90 and eventually 777.70 to 776.30 Traders can buy at 777.90 and hold for higher prices.   Stay tuned for flashes and Trade accordingly

JUNE 30 YR BOND
Resistance should appear near 124-21. Beyond, that sellers should appear near 125-07.
Support should appear near 123-21 and 123-07. 

June 10 yr Note
 Resistance should appear near 122-21 and 123-07. Beyond that a test of 123-21 is likely
Support should appear near 121-21 and 121-07... Below that a test of 120-07 is likely
                             The Frenzied Forex Front
 June dOLLAR iNDEX
 Resistance should appear near the 7587 to 7601       
Support should appear near the 7486 and the 7428 to 7414 region.   
 
June JAPANESE Yen
 Resistance should appear near 12680 to 12740 region.
Traders can sell at 12677 and risk a close over 12747 for three days in a row.  
Support should appear near 12380 to 12320, below that buyers should appear near 12030 to 11920
Traders can buy at 12037 for a bounce and risk a close under 11917 for three days in a row.                   

June EURO currency
 Support should appear near 14210 to 14150. A close under is negative and augurs for a test of 13830 to 13770.
Resistance should appear near 14370 and the 14530 to 14590 region
June SWISS FRANC
 Resistance should appear near 11640 to 11690. Traders can sell at 11633 for as turn lower and risk a close over 11697 for three days in a row.
Support should appear near 11010 to 10960. Below that a test of 10680 to 10580 is likely.

JUNE BRITISH POUND
Support should appear near 16210 to 16150.
Resistance should appear near 16420 to 16550. Traders can sell at 16417 for a turn lower and risk a close over 16557 for three days in a row.
JUNE CanadIAN Dollar
 Resistance should appear near 10320 to 10360 and 10470
Traders can sell at 10317 and hold for lower prices.               
Support should appear near 10237... Below that a test of 10136 to 10104 is likely.

JUNE AUSSIE DOLLAR
 Resistance should appear near 10680 then 10815 and 10960 to 11010
Traders can sell at 10630 and hold for lower prices.
Support should appear near 10580, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 10360 to 10320    Stay tuned for Updates and Flashes for additional recommendations.        
                                 The Precious Metals
 JUNE gold
 Resistance should appear near the 1529 to 1535 region.  
Support is near 1484.0, below that buyers should appear near 1471.5 and the 1459 to 1453 region. Traders can buy at 1459 for a bounce and hold for higher prices.       
JulY COPPER
 Resistance should appear near 40460 to 40560 and the 41630 to 41830 region
Traders can sell at 41620 and hold for lower prices.
Support should appear near 39090 to 39020 and the 38650 to 38580 region

July Silver 
 Resistance should appear near 3553 to 3563 and the 3734 to 3743 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 3858 to 3867. 
Support is at 3443 to 3425, below that a test of 3386 to 3377 is likely. A close under is negative and augurs for a test of 3213 to 3194... Below that buyers should appear near 3157 to 3148                                           

                                   The Exciting Energies  

JUne Crude Oil
Resistance should appear near 9821 to 9837 and the 9921 to 9937 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 10104 to 10136 and the 10320 to 10360 region. .
Support should appear 9641 to 9625 and the 9445 to 9429 region. Below that a test of 9347 to 9316 is likely.

JUNE HeaTING Oil
 Support should appear near 28280 to 28200 and 27750 to 27580. Below that a test of 26200 to 26120 region is likely
Resistance should appear near 29280 to 29370 and the 30360 to 30450 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 30920 to 31020. Traders can sell at 30910 and hold for lower prices.         

JUNE UNLEADED Gas
 Support should appear at 30450 to 30360, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 29900 to 29720. Below that buyers should appear near 28830 to 28720…
Resistance should appear near 331480 to 31570 and the 31940 to 32130 region

Stay tuned for Updates and Flashes.

June NATURAL Gas
Support should appear at 4183 to 4163 and the 4120 to 4110 region. Below that buyers should appear near 4056 to 4046 and contain a decline.  Resistance should appear near 4304 to 4315 and 4425 to 4446. Beyond that sellers should appear near  4503 to 4514 and cap a rally.   
                                           
                                 THE GRANDE’ GRAINS
 JULY SOYBEANS
Resistance should appear  1334 to 1346 , a close over friendly and augurs for a test of 1377 to 1383, beyond that a trade towards 1415 to 1421is likely
Support should appear near  1310 to 1304 and the 1274 to 1268 region.
Traders should go long if a close over 1347 occurs.

JULY SOYMEAL
Resistance should appear near 355,3 to 356.3 , a close over is friendly an d augurs for a test of 366.2 to 368.3
and 373.4 to 374.3         
Support should appear near 344.3 to 342.5 and the 338.6 to 337.7 region        
Traders should go long if a close over 356.4 occurs.

JULY BEAN OIL
Support should appear near 5504 to 5492 and the 5430 to 5418 region.          
Resistance should appear near the 5640 to 5653 and the 5716 to 5729 region.

JULY CORN
Resistance should appear near 707 ¾ to 708 ¾, beyond that sellers should appear near 714 ¼ to 717... Beyond that sellers should appear near 732 ¾ to 734 ¼ . Traders can sell at 731 ¾ and risk a close over 743 for three days in a row   
Support should appear 6677 ¼ to 664 ¾, a close under is negative and augurs for as test of
635 to 633 ¾... Trade accordingly

JULY WHEAT
Resistance should appear near 776 ¾ to 777 ¾ and 783 ¾ to 786 ½
Support should appear near 734 ¼ to 732 ¾ and the 717 to 714 ¼ region.

                                        
                                               THE LIVELY LIVESTOCK


JUNE CATTLE
Support should appear near 10960, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 10817 and the 10680 to 10580 region. 
Resistance should appear near 11010 and 11175, beyond that sellers should appear
near 11300 to 11360.      
Traders should go short if a close under 10957 occurs

JUNE HOGS

Resistance should appear near 9312 to 9347 and the 9707 to 9737 region. .  
Support should appear near 9157 to 9137, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of 9062 to 9042 and the 8872 to 8857 region.

                                  The Satisfying Softs
 JULY COFFEE
Support should appear near 28740, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of
28290 to 28200... Below that a test of 27750 to 27580 is likely.
Resistance should appear near 29720 to 29900 and the 30360 to 30450 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 30920 to 31020   
Traders should go short if a close under 28740 occurs.

JULY COCOA
Resistance should appear near 3092 to 3102 and the 3148 to 3157 region. Beyond that sellers should appear near 3194 to 3213       
Support should appear near 2990 to 2972, a close under is negative and augurs for a test of
2937 to 2928 and the 2883 to 2874 region.   

 JULY SUGAR
Resistance is at 2126 to 2134. Beyond that sellers should appear near 2170 to 2185 and the 2219 to 2226 region.  
Support should appear near 2042 to 2034 and the 1996 to 1982 region .Below that buyers should appear near 1909 to 1902.   
Traders should go long if a close over 2090 occurs.  

JULY COTTON
Resistance should appear near 16090 to 16150 and the 16890 to 16960 region. .
Support should appear 13460 to 13340 and the 11690 to 11640 region.
 
           --A Ship in Harbor is Safe...But that is not what ships are built for --
Happy Trading!   
Bill wil@futurescom.com  

Sunday May 8, 2011 9:00 AM South Florida Beach Time